LT Profits
- Joined
- Feb 27, 2023
- Messages
- 12,304
NCAA Basketball Pick for Tuesday: Commodores to Tame Wildcats in Nashville
We fell to 40-32 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball play last Thursday. We have a selection in a huge SEC battle Tuesday in Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt on ESPN.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Tuesday, January 27th – 9:00pm ET
In a matchup of two SEC teams going in the opposite direction record-wise, we are looking for a corrective result on Tuesday in Nashville. We are backing Vanderbilt as home favorites when they host Kentucky on ESPN.
Vanderbilt Still Well-Balanced Both Ends
Vanderbilt began this season 16-0 before a 3-game losing streak that they snapped by routing Mississippi State 88-56 on the road on Saturday. This leaves the Commodores are 17-3 overall and 4-3 inside the SEC, and we see their return to their early season form continuing here at home tonight.
After all, despite that 3-game blip, Vandy remains well-balanced while still being ranked 13th overall on Kenpom, ranking ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency. The Dores can score on anyone, ranking 16th in offensive efficiency, and they are excellent at protecting the basketball, ranking eighth in offensive turnover percentage at a mere 13.1% (national average 17.1%). That ball protection could very well decide this outcome.
And on the other end, Vanderbilt has been outstanding at defending the perimeter while ranking eighth in 3-point defense, which gets accentuated here with Kentucky being a poor 3-point shooting team.
Kentucky Lack of Pressure is Fatal Flaw
Kentucky was once ranked #1 on Kenpom early this year, but they struggled to a 9-6 start. They have heated up since then though, entering this game on a 5-game winning streak to improve to 14-6 overall and 5-2 in conference. Still, they remain the lower ranked Kenpom team here currently down to 28th, and while they are also well-balanced, they still trail Vandy at both ends ranking 40th in offensive efficiency and 32nd defensively.
Granted, the Wildcats have faced a strong schedule, but the fact remains that the highest currently ranked Kenpom team they have beaten is 20th ranked Tennessee three games ago, and Vanderbilt ranks seven spots higher. Sure, that Tennessee win was a nice one on the road, but unlike Vandy, the Volunteers have been sloppy with the ball all year ranking 281st in turnover percentage at 18.7%, and they helped the Wildcats in that game with an 18.9% rate.
Much of that rate was self-induced, as the biggest flaw of the Kentucky defense is not applying much pressure while ranking 204th in turnover percentage forced. They will not get that same help from a Vanderbilt offense that should be able to run their sets basically unhindered without pressure. Furthermore, the Wildcats will be in big trouble should Vandy build a lead, as their 159th ranking in 3-point shooting against a great 3-point defense makes it hard to come back.
In the end, we do see Vanderbilt building a double-digit lead at home and then keeping Kentucky at arm’s length the rest of the way. Bet on Vandy as favorites in Nashville.
THE PICK
Vanderbilt -6.5 -107 at Bookmaker
We fell to 40-32 across All Sports with our write-ups after losing our NCAA Basketball play last Thursday. We have a selection in a huge SEC battle Tuesday in Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt on ESPN.
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Tuesday, January 27th – 9:00pm ET
In a matchup of two SEC teams going in the opposite direction record-wise, we are looking for a corrective result on Tuesday in Nashville. We are backing Vanderbilt as home favorites when they host Kentucky on ESPN.
Vanderbilt Still Well-Balanced Both Ends
Vanderbilt began this season 16-0 before a 3-game losing streak that they snapped by routing Mississippi State 88-56 on the road on Saturday. This leaves the Commodores are 17-3 overall and 4-3 inside the SEC, and we see their return to their early season form continuing here at home tonight.
After all, despite that 3-game blip, Vandy remains well-balanced while still being ranked 13th overall on Kenpom, ranking ninth in the country in offensive efficiency and 18th in defensive efficiency. The Dores can score on anyone, ranking 16th in offensive efficiency, and they are excellent at protecting the basketball, ranking eighth in offensive turnover percentage at a mere 13.1% (national average 17.1%). That ball protection could very well decide this outcome.
And on the other end, Vanderbilt has been outstanding at defending the perimeter while ranking eighth in 3-point defense, which gets accentuated here with Kentucky being a poor 3-point shooting team.
Kentucky Lack of Pressure is Fatal Flaw
Kentucky was once ranked #1 on Kenpom early this year, but they struggled to a 9-6 start. They have heated up since then though, entering this game on a 5-game winning streak to improve to 14-6 overall and 5-2 in conference. Still, they remain the lower ranked Kenpom team here currently down to 28th, and while they are also well-balanced, they still trail Vandy at both ends ranking 40th in offensive efficiency and 32nd defensively.
Granted, the Wildcats have faced a strong schedule, but the fact remains that the highest currently ranked Kenpom team they have beaten is 20th ranked Tennessee three games ago, and Vanderbilt ranks seven spots higher. Sure, that Tennessee win was a nice one on the road, but unlike Vandy, the Volunteers have been sloppy with the ball all year ranking 281st in turnover percentage at 18.7%, and they helped the Wildcats in that game with an 18.9% rate.
Much of that rate was self-induced, as the biggest flaw of the Kentucky defense is not applying much pressure while ranking 204th in turnover percentage forced. They will not get that same help from a Vanderbilt offense that should be able to run their sets basically unhindered without pressure. Furthermore, the Wildcats will be in big trouble should Vandy build a lead, as their 159th ranking in 3-point shooting against a great 3-point defense makes it hard to come back.
In the end, we do see Vanderbilt building a double-digit lead at home and then keeping Kentucky at arm’s length the rest of the way. Bet on Vandy as favorites in Nashville.
THE PICK
Vanderbilt -6.5 -107 at Bookmaker
