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NCAA Basketball Pick for Thursday: Bruins to Claw Past Panthers in Nashville
We are 43-35-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball play Wednesday. We have a play on a nice Missouri Valley Conference matchup for Thursday in Northern Iowa at Belmont on ESPN+.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Belmont Bruins
Thursday, February 12th – 9:00pm ET
There is a nice matchup in the Missouri Valley Conference Thursday between one of the best offenses in the country and the best defense in the conference, although the game is only on ESPN+. We expect Belmont to score enough points at home to cover this number hosting Northern Iowa.
Belmont 2nd in Country in eFG%
Belmont is having a great season at 22-4 overall and 12-3 inside the Valley, and as you might expect, they are the highest ranked MVC team on Kenpom at 62nd overall. They should also be in an ornery mood returning home after losing at Bradley on Sunday, snapping a 9-game winning streak.
The Bruins are one of the best shooting teams in the country, not only ranking sixth in raw shooting percentage at 51.4% overall but also ranking second in eFG% at an amazing 60.8%. That makes this an intriguing matchup between easily the best offense in the MVC and the best defense, with Northern Iowa leading the conference and ranked 18th nationally in defensive efficiency.
However, Belmont is tough to defend against for any team, as the 78 points the Bruins scored in a 78-65 road win at Northern Iowa in the first meeting is the most points that the Panthers have allowed all season. What makes Belmont so hard to stop is they excel from all points on the floor, ranking third nationally in 3-point shooting at a whopping 40.6% and sixth in 2-point shooting at 60.7%. That has them averaging 83.3 points per game overall (84.9 PPG at home).
The defense has been good enough considering how great the offense is, ranking above average in both efficiency at 106.6 (national average 108.7) and eFG% allowed at 48.7% (average 51.3%).
UNI Vulnerability Inside to Prove Fatal
Now, Northern Iowa is the second highest ranked Valley team on Kenpom, although they are still 25 spots lower than Belmont at 87th. They come in at 16-9 overall and 8-6 in league play. As you may have gathered by those relatively mediocre records while possessing an elite defense, the Panthers have been held back by weak offense.
UNI ranks 242nd in offensive efficiency and they are terrible beyond the 3-point arc ranking 251st, which would make it hard to come from behind if Belmont goes on one of their patented explosive runs. The Panthers also do not help themselves with second chances either, ranking 357th out of 365 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage.
Yes, the defense has been outstanding, and Northern Iowa has the best perimeter defense in the land allowing a mere 26.9% success rate on 3-pointers. However, remember that Belmont is extremely well-balanced across the floor and the Panthers have not been as good closer to the rim ranking 97th in 2-poind defense. Belmont made an incredible 20-of-29, 69.0% on 2-point attempts in the first meeting, and that could very well be a death blow for UNI again tonight.
We look for Belmont to build a nice lead at home here and keep Northern Iowa at bay the rest of the way, so we are giving the points with the Bruins in Nashville.
THE PICK
Belmont -5 -105 at Bookmaker
We are 43-35-1 across All Sports with our write-ups after winning our NCAA Basketball play Wednesday. We have a play on a nice Missouri Valley Conference matchup for Thursday in Northern Iowa at Belmont on ESPN+.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. Belmont Bruins
Thursday, February 12th – 9:00pm ET
There is a nice matchup in the Missouri Valley Conference Thursday between one of the best offenses in the country and the best defense in the conference, although the game is only on ESPN+. We expect Belmont to score enough points at home to cover this number hosting Northern Iowa.
Belmont 2nd in Country in eFG%
Belmont is having a great season at 22-4 overall and 12-3 inside the Valley, and as you might expect, they are the highest ranked MVC team on Kenpom at 62nd overall. They should also be in an ornery mood returning home after losing at Bradley on Sunday, snapping a 9-game winning streak.
The Bruins are one of the best shooting teams in the country, not only ranking sixth in raw shooting percentage at 51.4% overall but also ranking second in eFG% at an amazing 60.8%. That makes this an intriguing matchup between easily the best offense in the MVC and the best defense, with Northern Iowa leading the conference and ranked 18th nationally in defensive efficiency.
However, Belmont is tough to defend against for any team, as the 78 points the Bruins scored in a 78-65 road win at Northern Iowa in the first meeting is the most points that the Panthers have allowed all season. What makes Belmont so hard to stop is they excel from all points on the floor, ranking third nationally in 3-point shooting at a whopping 40.6% and sixth in 2-point shooting at 60.7%. That has them averaging 83.3 points per game overall (84.9 PPG at home).
The defense has been good enough considering how great the offense is, ranking above average in both efficiency at 106.6 (national average 108.7) and eFG% allowed at 48.7% (average 51.3%).
UNI Vulnerability Inside to Prove Fatal
Now, Northern Iowa is the second highest ranked Valley team on Kenpom, although they are still 25 spots lower than Belmont at 87th. They come in at 16-9 overall and 8-6 in league play. As you may have gathered by those relatively mediocre records while possessing an elite defense, the Panthers have been held back by weak offense.
UNI ranks 242nd in offensive efficiency and they are terrible beyond the 3-point arc ranking 251st, which would make it hard to come from behind if Belmont goes on one of their patented explosive runs. The Panthers also do not help themselves with second chances either, ranking 357th out of 365 Division I teams in offensive rebounding percentage.
Yes, the defense has been outstanding, and Northern Iowa has the best perimeter defense in the land allowing a mere 26.9% success rate on 3-pointers. However, remember that Belmont is extremely well-balanced across the floor and the Panthers have not been as good closer to the rim ranking 97th in 2-poind defense. Belmont made an incredible 20-of-29, 69.0% on 2-point attempts in the first meeting, and that could very well be a death blow for UNI again tonight.
We look for Belmont to build a nice lead at home here and keep Northern Iowa at bay the rest of the way, so we are giving the points with the Bruins in Nashville.
THE PICK
Belmont -5 -105 at Bookmaker
