My Long Season Picks Thread

[ShookTheBook]

The Saints have very little to rely on offense tonight besides their star running back Kamara, who will receive A LOT of touches. He is averaging 66 YPG and around 18 carries, meanwhile Miami is allowing 84 YPG to opposing RB’s. Take this prop up to 65 and watch AK work his magic.

 

[ShookTheBook]

Pick: Jalen Brunson O1.5 3 Pointers Made (-118)

With Luka still sidelined, Jalen has taken over the guard role for the team and has produced very well. He has hit this line in 4 of his last 5 games, and I expect this volume to continue as long as he plays 35+ minutes. Take this up to -130.

 

[ShookTheBook]

We are getting right back into the 3 point props tonight with a play that I love because it will most likely remain under the radar. The Magic are still without key offensive production players, leaving Wendell to remain a big part of this offense. The Bucks allow the most 3 point attempts than any other team in the league, and with Wendell attempting 4 per game I like our chances here. Take this up to -120 and let’s rock! Hit the link for the best odds: https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nba/odds/

 

[ShookTheBook]

Pick: Kareem Hunt O32.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

All eyes are on Nick Chubb tonight with his prop currently sitting around 90 rushing yards and it being Hunt’s first game back. Over Kareem’s last 9 games played he has hit this number in 6 (in two of these games he only had 2 carries) and tonight will be facing the leagues worst run defense. I expect the Browns to hit them hard with the 1-2 punch of their RB duo, and for Hunt to easily get over this short number. Take up to 35.

 

[ShookTheBook]

This is an inflated point total with Malik averaging 11.3 PPG so far this season. The public is very heavy on his over and this is a good opportunity to grab his under while it’s being pumped up. Take down to 16.

 

[ShookTheBook]

Pick: Evan Fournier Over 11.5 Points (-116)

Evan only played 20 minutes his last game and recorded 0 points, but tonight he faces his old team where he went for 32 points on 24 shots the one time they played earlier this season. He is averaging 13 PPG this season and I believe with Rose/Walker out he can pick up more offensive production. Take this up to 12.5.

Catch more great free picks in the link! https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nba/picks/ LFG!

 

[ShookTheBook]

With Dame and CJ sidelined, Simons has picked up the slack in great fashion posting 71 Points/4 Rebounds/14 assist over his last 2 games. I feel this number should be 30+ and believe there is value at 28.5. If Simons plays 35+ minutes (there’s no reason he shouldn’t) this should be a sweat free winner. Take up to 29.5.

 

[ShookTheBook]

The Dolphins will host the Patriots for their final game of the season, with their playoff hopes crushed after last weeks blow out loss to the Titans. Tua is averaging 212 Passing YPG this season and will face a defense allowing only 192 YPG. This number is slightly inflated and I will grab the under here as I have him projected to throw close to 210 yards. Take this down to 220.

 

[ShookTheBook]

Pick: Harrison Barnes Over 21.5 PRA (-126) (.5U)

Barnes has averaged 16 points 6 rebounds and 2 assists per game over the course of this season, slightly higher than his career average. Tonight he will take on the Lakers at home, without Tristan Thompson who plays around 15 minutes per game. I have Harrison projected to play for 33 minutes tonight and to hold a PRA of 25+ giving us value on his OVER at 21.5. Take this up to -130.

 

[ShookTheBook]

We are going off of a VERY small sample size here, but in Klay’s 2 games played he has made 5 3’s on 13 attempts while averaging 20 minutes per game. His ceiling is well above three 3’s a game and I believe he will get back to form tonight against a Bucks defense missing Holiday & allowing 41.7 DFGA (3 pointers) per game. Take this up to -115. Hit the link for more awesome free picks: https://www.bookmakersreview.com/nba/picks/

 

[ShookTheBook]

Hurts has averaged 52.9 rushing yards per game this season but this number is inflated from playing against poor rush defenses (NYG,DET,LAC,ATL). He will be facing a Tampa defense that has allowed 92.5 RYPG this season which is 3rd in the league. In his last matchup vs Tampa he recorded only 44 rushing yards from 10 rushes. The Eagles will continue to use the rotation of RB’s at their disposal and I am projecting Hurts to record around 40 rushing yards.