MLB Tues Sept 17-Tues 24

[inzane]

Good luck today Pirate, I love Saturdays this time of year! NCAA and MLB...

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Ump Over is Twins/Red Sox Over 7.5-112 with Sean Barber who is 15-10 Over on 9.54 runs and a 2.5 SO/BB ratio. Both pens arent good, with sox 27th in ERA at 4.53 (and 3rd in HR allowed) and Twins 19th at 4.12, twins usually give Pablo run support.

 

[piratealew]

MLB Sat=16-10 (Cash top 3/11-5 Top plays) Umpire Overs=101-71 last 35 days

MLB =2168-1901 YTD/ (1078-955 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=237-171 Umpire Under=23-19

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Arizona+102-W
️Mets-106-W
️Doyers/Rocks Over 8.5-115-W
️Cleveland-124-L
️Reds-115-W
️Yankees-1-126-W
️Cubs-132-L
️Baltimore-115-L
️Marlins Team Total Over 2.5-120-L
️Astros Team Total Over 4.5-110 (Hou scored 17 runs last 3 against Detmers)-W
️Mariners+123-W
️AZ/Milwaukee Over 8-120-L
️Baltimore/Detroit Over 8-115-W
️Houston-1.5-105-W
️Padres-1.5-120-W
️San Fran+0.5-110 (F5)-W
Toronto+123-L
Dodgers-1.5-120
Braves/Marlins Over 7.5-125-W
Mets/Phils Over 7-125-W
Marlins+2.5-105-L
Cubs/Nats Over 8-115-L
Mets-110 (F5)-P
Cubs Team Total Over 4-L
Reds-115 (F5)-W
Giants+135-W
Reds/Pirates Ovder 8-125 (Ump Over-C. Ramos/9.6 Runs, 19-13 Over, 63%K, 2.5 SO/BB)-P
Padres/White Sux Over 8-115-P
Braves Team Total Over 5-W
Mariners/Rangers UNDER 8.5-125-L

Great day in MLB and a decent + day in NCAA. Cashed POD and top 3 MLB Heater going now 5 days, 98-62 MLB last 5 days.

 

[piratealew]

MLB Sat=16-10 (Cash top 3/11-5 Top plays) Umpire Overs=101-71 last 35 days

MLB =2168-1901 YTD/ (1078-955 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=237-171 Umpire Under=23-19

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Seattle-115
️Twins-116 (Game 1)
️Dodgers/Rockies Over 7.5-125
️Yankees-1-143
️Pittsburgh-115
️San Francisco-103
️Brewers/Dbags Over 8-130 (Ump Over-Muchlinski-10 Runs avg L2 YRS/32-26 Over last 2)
️Phillies-139
️Cubs-1-128
️Cleveland+110
️Arizona+107
️Braves-1-148
️Tampa-124
️Detroit+117
️Braves/Marlins Over 8.5-115
️Houston-1.5-112
️Padres-1.5-130
Twins-107 (Game 2)
Phils/Mets Over 6.5-125
Pirates-118 (F5)
Twins/Red Sox Over 7-120 (Ump Over-Sean Barber-15-10 Ov/9.7 runs/2.5 SO/BB/Sox 27th ERA/3rd most HR allowed/Twins 19th pen).
Clev/STL Over 7.5-115
Twins-120 (F5)
Dodgers Team Total Over 5
Pirates Team Total Over 3.5-125
Braves Team Total Over 4.5-125
Dodgers-1.5-140
Arizona Team Total Over 4
Twins Team Total Over 3.5-125
Cubs Team Total Over 4
Astros/Angels UNDER 9-120

5 Great MLB days, hope we can make it 6....

 

[inzane]

good luck today Pirate

 

[piratealew]

Thanks buddy, it was a decent day afterall..hit 10-6 top plays, cashed out Dbacks up 6-0 at least, wish I had done that with mariners up 5-0....still counted both as losses even the cashout up 6-0.

MLB Sun=16-14 (10-6 Top plays) Umpire Overs=103-71 last 35 days

MLB =2184-1915 YTD/ (1088-961 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=239-171 Umpire Under=23-19

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Seattle-115-L (Up 5-0 and mgr takes Woo out. reliever gives up 5 right away. unreal)
️Twins-116 (Game 1)-L
️Dodgers/Rockies Over 7.5-125-W
️Yankees-1-143-W
️Pittsburgh-115-W
️San Francisco-103-W
️Brewers/Dbags Over 8-130 (Ump Over-Muchlinski-10 Runs avg L2 YRS/32-26 Over last 2)-W
️Phillies-139-L
️Cubs-1-128-W
️Cleveland+110-L
️Arizona+107-L (Up 8-0, cashed out up 6-0-but counting as a L since they lost 10-9)
️Braves-1-148-P
️Tampa-124-W
️Detroit+117-W
️Braves/Marlins Over 8.5-115-W
️Houston-1.5-112-L
️Padres-1.5-130-W
Twins-107 (Game 2)-L
Phils/Mets Over 6.5-125-L
Pirates-118 (F5)-W
Twins/Red Sox Over 7-120 (Ump Over-Sean Barber-15-10 Ov/9.7 runs/2.5 SO/BB/Sox 27th ERA/3rd most HR allowed/Twins 19th pen)-W
Clev/STL Over 7.5-115-L
Twins-120 (F5)-Game 2-L
Dodgers Team Total Over 5-W
Pirates Team Total Over 3.5-125-L
Braves Team Total Over 4.5-125-W
Dodgers-1.5-140-L
Arizona Team Total Over 4-W
Twins Team Total Over 3.5-125-L
Cubs Team Total Over 4-W
Astros/Angels UNDER 9-120-L

Crap card today, will be back a bit later with the plays...

 

[piratealew]

MLB Sunday=16-14 (10-6 Top plays) Umpire Overs=103-71 last 35 days

MLB =2184-1915 YTD/ (1088-961 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=239-171 Umpire Under=23-19

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Phillies-1-110
️Mariners+125
️Arizona-1-113
️Boston+108
️DBags/Giants Over 8.5-120
️Phils/Cubs Over 7.5-130
Boston/Toronto Over 7.5-115
Phils-0.5-115 (F5)
Mariners+0.5-115 (F5)
Red Sox Team Total Over 3.5-120
Phils Team Total Over 4
Dbags-0.5-115 (F5)
Seattle/Asstros UNDER 8-115

Case of the mondays, and def feeling the age, turn 44 Wednesday. Ouch. Hope we can keep up the MLB run, and no more 8-0 blown leads. (114-76 Last 6 days).

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is Boston/Toronto Over 7.5 w/Lance Barksdale who's games are 18-13 Over on 9 runs per game and a low SO/BB ratio of 2.18. While the Jays offense has been bad all year, Houck carries a 4.61 ERA since ASB so TO should have chances to score. Sox hit .241 against Jays this year and average 4.7 Runs per game, and with the Jays bullpen 3rd worse in ERA at 4.79, I expect the Sox to easily eclipse their game average of 5 runs.

 

[piratealew]

Was asked why Mariners-M's playing their best ball now winning 6 of last 9, and needing every game for WC. M's also have a 5-4 record against HOU this year, and throwing one of their Aces who is one of the best in MLB all eyar with a 3.06 ERA (10TH), and .99 WHIP (5th). He's won his last 2 against HOU this year, giving up only 2 his last game against HOU, while also carrying a miniscule 1.82 ERA his last 5 games. In his prior 3 starts, he gave up 1 run twice and shut out STL for 6 innings. M's offense finally has come to life last 2 weeks ranking 2nd in wRC+ (143) and 3rd in wOBA (.359). In a vital game they can't lose, that doesnt mean as much to Houston, I'll take the dog with the better pitcher and lineup that's heating up.

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is Boston/Toronto Over 7.5 w/Lance Barksdale who's games are 18-13 Over on 9 runs per game and a low SO/BB ratio of 2.18. While the Jays offense has been bad all year, Houck carries a 4.61 ERA since ASB so TO should have chances to score. Sox hit .241 against Jays this year and average 4.7 Runs per game, and with the Jays bullpen 3rd worse in ERA at 4.79, I expect the Sox to easily eclipse their game average of 5 runs.

FYI looks like they switched to Nic Lentz who isnt as friendly an ump to hitters. still on the over obviously for many other reasons. Trying to confirm if Lentz or Barksdale.

 

[piratealew]

Crushed MLB today, 9-1 with late game pending. Come on dbags and over.

 

[piratealew]

MLB Moday=10-3 (5-1 Top plays/Cash POD) Umpire Overs=103-71 last 35 days

MLB =2194-1918 YTD/ (1093-962 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=239-171 Umpire Under=23-19

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Phillies-1-110-W
️Mariners+125-W
️Arizona-1-113-L
️Boston+108-W
️DBags/Giants Over 8.5-120-W
️Phils/Cubs Over 7.5-130-W
Boston/Toronto Over 7.5-115-L
Phils-0.5-115 (F5)-W
Mariners+0.5-115 (F5)-W
Red Sox Team Total Over 3.5-120-W
Phils Team Total Over 4-W
Dbags-0.5-115 (F5)--L
Seattle/Asstros UNDER 8-115-W

Awesome 10-3 day, cashed POD and 5-1 top plays. /124-79 Last 7 days. during the toughest stretch of MLB season to predict...

 

[piratealew]

MLB Moday=10-3 (5-1 Top plays/Cash POD) Umpire Overs=103-71 last 35 days

MLB =2194-1918 YTD/ (1093-962 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=239-171 Umpire Under=23-19

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Arizona-132
️Yankees-148
️Braves-130
️Tigers-1-112
️Houston-126
️Cubs-125 (F5)
️Arizona/Giants Over 7.5-120 (Ump Over-Barrett-9.5 Runs/19-11 Over)
️Brewers-134
️Padres+112
️Oakland+110
️Red Sox+115
️Twins-1.5-104
️Angels-104
️Rockies+102
️Reds+144
️Padres/Dodgers Over 8-112
️Cubs/Phils Over 8-125
Braves/Mets Over 7.5-128
Nationals+1.5-115
Cubs-122 (Full-game)
Arizona Team Total Over 4
Astros/Mariners Over 6.5-130 (Umpire over-Hudson-16-9 Over/~10 Runs)
Brewers/Pirates Over 7.5-115
Oakland/Tejas Over 7.5-110
Nats/Royals Over 7.5-112
Atlanta-130 (F5)
Padres+0.5-130 (F5)
Braves Team Total Over 4
Dbags-130 (F5)
Yankees Team Total Over 4
Twins-0.5-135 (F5)
Rockies-105 (F5)
Reds Team Total Over 3
Tigers-0.5-115 (F5)
Angels/White Sox Over 8-115
Rays/Tigers Under 7-125

Another insanely awesome MLB run, now 7 days. Turning the Diesel's age (#44 John Riggins) tomorrow, for another lap around the sun, or for flat earthers that doesnt apply. Maybe we can get some pre-bday luck again today and keep it going..GL

 

[piratealew]

was asked why braves-this is a high leverage game, and with a veteran lineup like the braves that have played more high leverage games than mets, this stuff matters but unquantifiable. When looking at pitching, Sevvy is hittable, and Braves are slashing .240/.321/.360 against him in 75 AB's.He hs a 6.62 ERA against ATL in 51 innings. In his last 5, he's 2-3 with a 3.56, while Spencer is 3-2 with a 2.5, while Spencer posted 7 scoreless innings against the Mets this year. Mets have been real good lately but only 3-3 on the road, braves are in desperation mode and have the advantages tonight in pitching and a mostly healthy braves lineup again, that has won 3 of their last 4 at home and needs every win they can get.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Marlins/Twins Over 7.5-115 with Mark Wegner who is averaging a high 10.3 runs and a whopping 15-8 Over on a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. 8 of twins last 12 have gone over and all of their last 5 at home have gone over, as well as 4 of their last 5 in minnesota between these 2 and 6 of their last 9.

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Marlins/Twins Over 7.5-115 with Mark Wegner who is averaging a high 10.3 runs and a whopping 15-8 Over on a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. 8 of twins last 12 have gone over and all of their last 5 at home have gone over, as well as 4 of their last 5 in minnesota between these 2 and 6 of their last 9.

should be 3rd

 

[piratealew]

looks like they switched out Wegner to Scheurwater who is nowhere close to Wegner, he's more neutral so he doesnt qualify but i am still on the over anyway. He wont hurt the total, but wont help too much if it's Stu and not mark. Frustrating when they change umps but at least this wasnt last minute like the last few.

This next one I was on the fence on the total and had only played the reds over, with this announcement, it's pushed my expected runs of 8-9 to 9-10+. AJ is one of the top 3 hitter friendly/Overs umps (Drekman, Fletcher, Johnson)

***3rd (or 4th-waiting on twinks Ump confirm) is Cincy/Clev Over 8-115 with Adrian Johnson who is an astonishing 19-9 Over, on 10.6 runs avg, with a very low 2.1 SO/BB ratio conducive to more walks, less K's=more runs. The over has cashed in 6 of Cincy's last 9 games, and 4 of the last 6 between these 2 in cleve have gone over the total.

 

[inzane]

Keep on cashin' those tix Pirate!!!

 

[piratealew]

***4th Umpire Over is️Padres/Dodgers Over 8 with Andy fletcher who is avg a wopping 12.1 runs, and a crazy 23-7 Over on a low 2.1 so/bb. Both teams are scoring runs-LAD scoring 6 or more in 8 of their last 9 going 8-1-1 over. SD has averaged 4 runs in their last 4 and with Knack pitching to a near 5 ERA last 5 games, Padres should have no issue surpassing their total.

 

[piratealew]

Cashed 8 out of top 10 (even with top 2 losing). 8 day MLB heater is still lit, now 144-94 Last 8 days. Today I turn 44, born in 1980. Hope our luck keeps up.

MLB played switching games with 2 of the umps (namely padres-fletcher for gibson) but at least Fletch is ump tonight, we should get more runs in those games tonight.

MLB Monday=20-15 (9-6 Top plays) Umpire Overs=105-73 last 35 days

MLB =2214-1931 YTD/ (1102-968 Top plays)/ Umpire Overs=241-173 Umpire Under=23-19
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Arizona-132-L
️Yankees-148-L
️Braves-130-W
️Tigers-1-112-Push tnx to 2 out 9th inning hr.
️Houston-126-W
️Cubs-125 (F5)-W
️Arizona/Giants Over 7.5-120 (Ump Over-Barrett-9.5 Runs/19-11 Over)-W
️Brewers-134-W
️Padres+112-W
️Oakland+110-W
️Red Sox+115-W
️Twins-1.5-104-L
️Angels-104-L (Blew the 2-0 lead in 8th)
️Rockies+102-L
️Reds+144-Void (Reds pitching change Junis for Spiers)
️Padres/Dodgers Over 8-112 (Umpire over)-L
️Cubs/Phils Over 8-125-W
Braves/Mets Over 7.5-128-L
Nationals+1.5-115-W
Cubs-122 (Full-game)-W
Arizona Team Total Over 4-L
Astros/Mariners Over 6.5-130 (Umpire over-Hudson-16-9 Over/~10 Runs)-W
Brewers/Pirates Over 7.5-115-W
Oakland/Tejas Over 7.5-110-W
Nats/Royals Over 7.5-112-L
Atlanta-130 (F5)-W
Padres+0.5-130 (F5)-W
Braves Team Total Over 4-W
Dbags-130 (F5)-L
Yankees Team Total Over 4-L
Twins-0.5-135 (F5)-L
Rockies-105 (F5)-W
Reds Team Total Over 3-L
Tigers-0.5-115 (F5)-W
Cincy/Clev Over 8-115 (Ump Over)-L
Angels/White Sox Over 8-115-L
Rays/Tigers Under 7-125-W