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Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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Mar 6, 2018
Messages
59,464

March Madness betting: Experts give best bets to win NCAA Tournament​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

Now that football season is over, March Madness is the next major event on the sports betting calendar.

Auburn is the +350 favorite and Duke is the 4-1 second choice at the Westgate SuperBook to win the NCAA menā€™s basketball tournament, and there are 16 teams with odds of 40-1 or less.

ā€œYou can probably weed it down to about 10 or 12 teams that have a realistic chance to win,ā€ Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said

Houston is the 7-1 third choice, followed by Florida at 10-1 and Alabama at 12-1. Tennessee and Iowa State are each 16-1, followed by Kansas, Texas Tech and two-time defending national champion UConn at 30-1.

ā€œI donā€™t think UConn can win this year,ā€ Salmons said. ā€œI donā€™t think theyā€™re good enough to do it over six games.ā€

Salmons also isnā€™t sure whether Duke, led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, will be battle-tested enough to cut down the nets April 7 in San Antonio.

ā€œItā€™s just hard to really realize how good Duke is because the ACC is so bad this year,ā€ Salmons said. ā€œThey have the No. 1 pick in the draft (in Flagg) and two or three lottery picks. Most of their good players are young and thatā€™s always been something thatā€™s never seemingly worked in the tournament.ā€

No. 1 Auburn, which knocked off No. 2 Alabama 94-85 on the road Saturday, also is the clear +350 favorite over Duke (+415) at Circa Sports.

ā€œEverybody starts with Auburn and itā€™s probably a fair starting point,ā€ Salmons said. ā€œTheyā€™re deep and their coach, Bruce Pearl ā€¦ no matter where he coaches, heā€™s got a great team.

ā€œSo many of these SEC teams look so good.ā€

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone recommends backing a pair of SEC teams ā€” Florida and Texas A&M (45-1) ā€” to win it all.

ā€œFirst of all, I think up to about a dozen teams could win the whole thing,ā€ said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). ā€œFlorida is extremely balanced and can beat you in a number of ways. The Gatorsā€™ rĆ©sumĆ© speaks for itself: They defeated No. 1 Auburn (90-81) and No. 22 Mississippi State (81-68) on the road (last week).ā€

Salmons said the Gators ā€œseem like a team that has a real shot at it.ā€

Stone recognizes Texas A&M displays offensive limitations at times, but was largely attracted to the Aggies based on their lofty price.

ā€œAt 45-to-1, I believe thereā€™s some value on the Aggies,ā€ he said. ā€œThis is a relentless rebounding team that hits the glass as well as any team in the nation.

ā€œPlus, if A&M wins two or three games in the tournament, youā€™ve potentially got some favorable hedging opportunities with that ticket.ā€

Here are some other longer shots recommended by Salmons and pro handicappers Brian Edwards and Bruce Marshall:

Texas Tech, 35-1

Salmons made Texas Tech, 35-1 at Circa, his best value bet.

ā€œThat team can be a real threat in this tournament,ā€ he said. ā€œYouā€™ve got to defend at a high level, you have to be able to make 3s, and you have to have a coach that really knows what heā€™s doing. That fills everything for Texas Tech.

ā€œTo me, they are a team that has a lot of value. I think theyā€™re real live.ā€

So does Edwards (MajorWager.com).

ā€œ(Coach) Grant McCaslandā€™s team has proven that itā€™s capable of beating anyone on any given night,ā€ he said. ā€œThat was evident in an 82-81 overtime win at Houston when Texas Tech overcame losing its best player, JT Toppin, and coach to ejections less than five minutes into the game.

ā€œMcCaslandā€™s squad has an impressive 6-3 record against Quad-1 opponents. In addition to the road win at Houston, Texas Tech has road victories over KenPom top-100 foes like BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State and Utah.ā€

KenPom ranks Texas Tech ninth nationally in offensive efficiency.

Missouri, 80-1

ā€œMissouri doesnā€™t have a shameful loss on its rĆ©sumĆ©,ā€ Edwards said. ā€œAll of its defeats have been Quad-1 setbacks, and (coach) Dennis Gatesā€™ team has four Q1 wins at Florida, at Mississippi State (by 27 points), and at home against Kansas and Ole Miss.ā€

KenPom ranks Missouri No. 11 nationally in offensive efficiency and No. 41 in defensive efficiency. Three of the Tigersā€™ losses (to Illinois, Tennessee and Texas A&M) have been by a combined 10 points.

Salmons also has been impressed by Missouri.

ā€œMissouriā€™s a really good team,ā€ he said. ā€œThat programā€™s really improved. Big time.ā€

Michigan, 40-1

Creighton, 80-1


If the regionals line up correctly, CBS Sportslineā€™s Bruce Marshall said he can envision an Alabama-Auburn national title game.

ā€œImagine the Iron Bowl Final Four version,ā€ he said.

For long shots, Marshall likes Michigan and Creighton.

ā€œCreighton has the big man, (Ryan) Kalkbrenner, who could be a very tough matchup for a lot of teams,ā€ he said. ā€œFor Michigan, lots of size among (coach) Dusty Mayā€™s many transfers. Intriguing personnel mix.

ā€œIf (the) Wolverines start to play again like they did in early January, they will be a team no one wants to face.ā€
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
59,464
Justbet

ODDS TO WIN NCAAB MENS CHAMPIONSHIPNCAAB 2024/25

Alabama+952
Arizona+4008
Arizona State+180373
Arkansas+30061
Auburn+311
Baylor+15030
Boise State+65136
Butler+250527
BYU+25051
Central Florida+150321
Cincinnati+48600
Clemson+7908
Colorado State+120251
Connecticut+4008
Creighton+7014
Dayton+135291
Duke+351
Drake+64688
Florida+891
Florida Atlantic+200421
Florida State+200421
Georgetown+150321
Georgia+50103
Georgia Tech+250527
Gonzaga+4971
Grand Canyon+100211
Houston+900
Illinois+4659
Indiana+75184
Iowa+150321
Iowa State+1453
Kansas+4659
Kansas State+50103
Kentucky+3507
Louisville+8517
LSU+250527
Marquette+5333
Maryland+6192
Memphis+11523
Michigan+4655
Michigan State+3507
Minnesota+250527
Mississippi+11523
Mississippi State+10020
Missouri+6301
Nebraska+37578
Nevada+185463
New Mexico+32567
North Carolina+60123
Northwestern+180373
Ohio State+20041
Oklahoma+75156
Oklahoma State+180373
Oregon+25051
Penn State+200421
Pittsburgh+60123
Providence+250527
Purdue+4359
Rutgers+100211
Saint Johns+3003
Saint Marys+8016
San Diego State+30061
SMU+40082
South Carolina+250527
Stanford+150321
TCU+135291
Tennessee+1700
Texas+30061
Texas A&M+3507
Texas Tech+3142
UCLA+8511
USC+115240
Utah+250527
Utah State+26555
Vanderbilt+32567
Villanova+75156
Virginia+250527
VCU+40240
Wake Forest+30061
Washington+250527
Washington State+181125
West Virginia+34069
Wisconsin+5547
Xavier+38579
Liberty+250527
UC Irvine+150321
San Francisco+100211
 

BMR Genie

BMR Genie

Joined
Jun 16, 2016
Messages
34,459
Justbet

ODDS TO WIN NCAAB MENS CHAMPIONSHIPNCAAB 2024/25

Alabama+952
Arizona+4008
Arizona State+180373
Arkansas+30061
Auburn+311
Baylor+15030
Boise State+65136
Butler+250527
BYU+25051
Central Florida+150321
Cincinnati+48600
Clemson+7908
Colorado State+120251
Connecticut+4008
Creighton+7014
Dayton+135291
Duke+351
Drake+64688
Florida+891
Florida Atlantic+200421
Florida State+200421
Georgetown+150321
Georgia+50103
Georgia Tech+250527
Gonzaga+4971
Grand Canyon+100211
Houston+900
Illinois+4659
Indiana+75184
Iowa+150321
Iowa State+1453
Kansas+4659
Kansas State+50103
Kentucky+3507
Louisville+8517
LSU+250527
Marquette+5333
Maryland+6192
Memphis+11523
Michigan+4655
Michigan State+3507
Minnesota+250527
Mississippi+11523
Mississippi State+10020
Missouri+6301
Nebraska+37578
Nevada+185463
New Mexico+32567
North Carolina+60123
Northwestern+180373
Ohio State+20041
Oklahoma+75156
Oklahoma State+180373
Oregon+25051
Penn State+200421
Pittsburgh+60123
Providence+250527
Purdue+4359
Rutgers+100211
Saint Johns+3003
Saint Marys+8016
San Diego State+30061
SMU+40082
South Carolina+250527
Stanford+150321
TCU+135291
Tennessee+1700
Texas+30061
Texas A&M+3507
Texas Tech+3142
UCLA+8511
USC+115240
Utah+250527
Utah State+26555
Vanderbilt+32567
Villanova+75156
Virginia+250527
VCU+40240
Wake Forest+30061
Washington+250527
Washington State+181125
West Virginia+34069
Wisconsin+5547
Xavier+38579
Liberty+250527
UC Irvine+150321
San Francisco+100211
How many SEC teams were included in this list?
 

KVB

KVB

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Messages
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Can't wait.

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Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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Vegas Madness odds: UNLV on fringe of wide-open MW tournament​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The Mountain West menā€™s basketball tournament is wide open, based on the betting odds.

Five teams are in single digits at the Westgate SuperBook to win the title, led by defending champion New Mexico at +225. Utah State is the +375 second choice, and Colorado State is the 4-1 third pick to win the event, which will take place Wednesday through Saturday at the Thomas & Mack Center.

San Diego State and Boise State are each 6-1. The Aztecs won the tournament in 2021 and 2023, and the Broncos won in 2022.

ā€œThere are just so many balanced teams in that conference,ā€ Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. ā€œThe 4-5 game is Boise and San Diego State, which is a great game for a 4-5.

ā€œI would throw New Mexico out just because I think their odds are a little bit too low. I would think the value is either Utah State or Colorado State. One of those two would be the value play for me.ā€

UNLV, UNR odds

UNLV, which hasnā€™t won the tournament since claiming back-to-back crowns in 2007 and 2008, is the 18-1 sixth choice to win the title and earn the conferenceā€™s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

UNR, which hasnā€™t won the tournament since 2017, is 30-1 at Caesars Sportsbook to win the event.

The Rebels (17-14, 13-17-1 against the spread) won six of their final eight regular-season games while going 5-3 ATS. The Wolf Pack (16-15, 14-17 ATS) lost and failed to cover five of their last six.

ā€œTheyā€™ve both been erratic,ā€ Salmons said. ā€œUNLVā€™s played pretty well down the stretch here but itā€™s a lot to ask them to win because they have to play four games in four days.

ā€œ(UNRā€™s) just been so wildly inconsistent. The one constant is they canā€™t beat good teams this year.ā€

Vegas Madness

Grand Canyon is the +140 favorite to win the Western Athletic Conference tournament, scheduled Wednesday through Saturday at Orleans Arena.

Utah Valley is +190, Seattle +550 and California Baptist 7-1.

The Big West tournament will be played Wednesday through Sunday at Leeā€™s Family Forum. UC San Diego is the -150 favorite, followed by UC Irvine at +195.

Power Four

Duke is a -375 favorite to win the ACC tournament, but the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC tourneys are up for grabs.

ā€œThose three tournaments are crazy. There are just so many good teams in there,ā€ Salmons said. ā€œYou can argue the SEC tournament is harder to win than the NCAA Tournament.

ā€œThe public is enamored with Florida right now. Thatā€™s like their favorite team.ā€

The Gators (27-4, 23-8 ATS), who have won and covered nine of their past 10, including upset wins at Auburn and Alabama, are the +285 second choice to win the SEC. Auburn is the +150 favorite, and Alabama and Tennessee are each 5-1.

Houston is the +105 favorite to win the Big 12. Michigan State tops a pack of six teams in single digits to win the Big Ten at +260.
 
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