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March Madness betting: Experts give best bets to win NCAA Tournament
LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTIONNow that football season is over, March Madness is the next major event on the sports betting calendar.
Auburn is the +350 favorite and Duke is the 4-1 second choice at the Westgate SuperBook to win the NCAA menās basketball tournament, and there are 16 teams with odds of 40-1 or less.
āYou can probably weed it down to about 10 or 12 teams that have a realistic chance to win,ā Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said
Houston is the 7-1 third choice, followed by Florida at 10-1 and Alabama at 12-1. Tennessee and Iowa State are each 16-1, followed by Kansas, Texas Tech and two-time defending national champion UConn at 30-1.
āI donāt think UConn can win this year,ā Salmons said. āI donāt think theyāre good enough to do it over six games.ā
Salmons also isnāt sure whether Duke, led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, will be battle-tested enough to cut down the nets April 7 in San Antonio.
āItās just hard to really realize how good Duke is because the ACC is so bad this year,ā Salmons said. āThey have the No. 1 pick in the draft (in Flagg) and two or three lottery picks. Most of their good players are young and thatās always been something thatās never seemingly worked in the tournament.ā
No. 1 Auburn, which knocked off No. 2 Alabama 94-85 on the road Saturday, also is the clear +350 favorite over Duke (+415) at Circa Sports.
āEverybody starts with Auburn and itās probably a fair starting point,ā Salmons said. āTheyāre deep and their coach, Bruce Pearl ā¦ no matter where he coaches, heās got a great team.
āSo many of these SEC teams look so good.ā
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone recommends backing a pair of SEC teams ā Florida and Texas A&M (45-1) ā to win it all.
āFirst of all, I think up to about a dozen teams could win the whole thing,ā said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). āFlorida is extremely balanced and can beat you in a number of ways. The Gatorsā rĆ©sumĆ© speaks for itself: They defeated No. 1 Auburn (90-81) and No. 22 Mississippi State (81-68) on the road (last week).ā
Salmons said the Gators āseem like a team that has a real shot at it.ā
Stone recognizes Texas A&M displays offensive limitations at times, but was largely attracted to the Aggies based on their lofty price.
āAt 45-to-1, I believe thereās some value on the Aggies,ā he said. āThis is a relentless rebounding team that hits the glass as well as any team in the nation.
āPlus, if A&M wins two or three games in the tournament, youāve potentially got some favorable hedging opportunities with that ticket.ā
Here are some other longer shots recommended by Salmons and pro handicappers Brian Edwards and Bruce Marshall:
Texas Tech, 35-1
Salmons made Texas Tech, 35-1 at Circa, his best value bet.
āThat team can be a real threat in this tournament,ā he said. āYouāve got to defend at a high level, you have to be able to make 3s, and you have to have a coach that really knows what heās doing. That fills everything for Texas Tech.
āTo me, they are a team that has a lot of value. I think theyāre real live.ā
So does Edwards (MajorWager.com).
ā(Coach) Grant McCaslandās team has proven that itās capable of beating anyone on any given night,ā he said. āThat was evident in an 82-81 overtime win at Houston when Texas Tech overcame losing its best player, JT Toppin, and coach to ejections less than five minutes into the game.
āMcCaslandās squad has an impressive 6-3 record against Quad-1 opponents. In addition to the road win at Houston, Texas Tech has road victories over KenPom top-100 foes like BYU, Cincinnati, Kansas State and Utah.ā
KenPom ranks Texas Tech ninth nationally in offensive efficiency.
Missouri, 80-1
āMissouri doesnāt have a shameful loss on its rĆ©sumĆ©,ā Edwards said. āAll of its defeats have been Quad-1 setbacks, and (coach) Dennis Gatesā team has four Q1 wins at Florida, at Mississippi State (by 27 points), and at home against Kansas and Ole Miss.ā
KenPom ranks Missouri No. 11 nationally in offensive efficiency and No. 41 in defensive efficiency. Three of the Tigersā losses (to Illinois, Tennessee and Texas A&M) have been by a combined 10 points.
Salmons also has been impressed by Missouri.
āMissouriās a really good team,ā he said. āThat programās really improved. Big time.ā
Michigan, 40-1
Creighton, 80-1
If the regionals line up correctly, CBS Sportslineās Bruce Marshall said he can envision an Alabama-Auburn national title game.
āImagine the Iron Bowl Final Four version,ā he said.
For long shots, Marshall likes Michigan and Creighton.
āCreighton has the big man, (Ryan) Kalkbrenner, who could be a very tough matchup for a lot of teams,ā he said. āFor Michigan, lots of size among (coach) Dusty Mayās many transfers. Intriguing personnel mix.
āIf (the) Wolverines start to play again like they did in early January, they will be a team no one wants to face.ā
