Live wagering now king

[KVB]

A price in that range is still juiced. All wagers are technically juiced

It’s just cheaper price range

This is one of those instances where he means laying a price as juice, he's not considering the vig.

Seems like a widespread misconception, always has been.

What's that awful saying?

"There's no juice when you win."

Couldn't be more wrong. Only the winners pay the juice. The losers just lose their bet.

lol

 

[stormtrooper8]

This is one of those instances where he means laying a price as juice, he's not considering the vig.

Seems like a widespread misconception, always has been.

What's that awful saying?

"There's no juice when you win."

Couldn't be more wrong. Only the winners pay the juice. The losers just lose their bet.

lol

Yep it’s very widespread.

People will see a plus in front of the humber and assume it’s a “juice-free” bet.

Read it on this site all the time. lol

I pay juice every winner unless P2P bet with a buddy

Also never heard of live betting being institutionally +EV or advantageous over pregame betting in any way

 

[stormtrooper8]

I think Minny just getting cooked as a bookie in general

 

[jjgold]

I think there’s high juice with live betting

 

[KVB]

I think there’s high juice with live betting

correct

It's risk management.

We are better than the book when it comes to LIVE algos

They use high vig and limit reductions as the risk management.

 

[stormtrooper8]

I think there’s high juice with live betting

Jj said a smart thing

 

[KVB]

Jj said a smart thing

Thing is he says it like it's a bad thing. And while it isn't ideal if outs are limited, it doesn't really matter.

As long as you get the number you want, the vig is completly irrelevant. I think I said that in a video.

We approach LIVE betting like the other betting, seeking EV and EV opportunities and even with the vig charged, the opportunities are there. Especially if you can weed out games and narrow your focus.

We can get the margin on the number, even with the juiced implied probability.

 

[KVB]

Again one my favorite and most successful approaches, one that helps keep stability among the variance, is to find the dog moneyline pregame and sell it back when they take that early or even late lead.

Open the postition, then close the position. There is a time value to the trade, much like stock options.

The LIVE markets are so prone to overreaction and the systems so skiddish on volume that you can very often take advantage of market overreaction.

 

[KVB]

Very, very, very rarely do I ever open and close a position in the same game twice.

Even though you see how it can be done and how some games go, there comes a point where you're just trying your luck, even if the margin is there ands the math is right, because eventually a position may end up costing to close as you can only get the pregame line once.

Take the planned investment win, and go home.

"Because over the long term, just like stocks, it's not what you make in sportsbetting, it's what you keep."

--KVB

 

[nasios]

I am not live wagering too. Trying to understand the business model behind it as I try to compare it with the pregame and find out the similarities or differences.

Pregame sharp lines are market driven that is the lines are moving and weighted regarding the people's money. The lines are rather steady prior to the kickoff because there are not many changes happening.

In live betting new input - mainly score of the match, time elapsed etc - is coming up every few seconds or minutes. The lines shall be adjusted mostly by the algorithm which considers every time the new data n input rather than the people's money. Of course, not eliminating the winners in live betting will add sharpness to the lines. Just believe not to the same extend as in pregame.
Thus, I tend to think that live wagering is mostly an algorithm game rather than people's-money game.

These are only recent personal considerations trying to explain how it works.
I may be wrong but it is a good start to understand the business and discuss it further with you.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Live wagers usually less valuable unless your timing is realllly good

You’re thinking betting random NFL or NBA games live

I don’t mean this the wrong way at all but I lm not sure you can comprehend the live wagering i do

I’ve talked about it here but I get that it’s no use to most unless they have the time and understanding of the types of games i target

❓Am I The Only One Here Doing Much Live Betting?

An easy under might be in danger because of possible overtime 😒 Oh no! I know this is not the 1st time this happened to you, WAS. No bueno OT!

forum.bookmakersreview.com

Ive since been cut back even more and when reaching out to my vip host and he tried to help, he was told I’m lucky to be able to still bet at all

I could post recent history but it would seem like boasting and the main reason I stopped updating the thread above

 

[jjgold]

I don’t like it because you gotta be on your phone too much or watching, etc.. I’m not wasting all that time. I just put plays in and pray before the game.

 

[KVB]

I don’t like it because you gotta be on your phone too much or watching, etc.. I’m not wasting all that time. I just put plays in and pray before the game.

I spend a significant amount of time just watching screens, watching markets and numbers with a spreadsheet up.

Watching the actual game is secondary or even tertiary.

It's crazy.

 

[MinnesotaFats]

I think Minny just getting cooked as a bookie in general

Not cooked but after NFL I'll have my worst year I think. Will be luck to break even, thank God NCAABB around the corner.

 

[jjgold]

I spend a significant amount of time just watching screens, watching markets and numbers with a spreadsheet up.

Watching the actual game is secondary or even tertiary.

It's crazy.

go skiing chief and get laid by a hooker

 

[KVB]

go skiing chief and get laid by a hooker

Gold I'm only part pro gambler or pro bettor, in that I make a line.

But in actuality, I'm a pro trader.

Can't really do that in sports if you're not looking at screens.

 

[jjgold]

trade stocks

 

[KVB]

trade stocks

Of course.

Crypto too.

 

[jjgold]

Your a mother fukker