Lets Talk About Martingale Systems and Why they are +EV

[KVB]

it’s about controlling variance.

Oh boy, we are in a spiral.

 

[KVB]

Look guy, I laid out the case that you have a game to play here.

I also said it's not the best way to ply the trade, but you do you, that's fine. ROI is not your concern. Winning 10 bucks is.

But that fact that you don't understand what "the odds will catch up to you" means, means that even if you are successful in your runs, you don't know why.

So save the paragraphs where you're controlling variance with silly bet sizes.

LMAO

 

[Tanko]

Alright, I see what you’re saying, but let me explain why your argument doesn’t hold up. You’re lookin’ at Martingale like someone who doesn’t truly understand how to play the game. Let me break this down piece by piece.

“Bet 4 $80, Bet 5 $60, Bet 6 $120... laid out $330 to win $10”​

Yeah, that’s how it works. It’s not a system to win big every bet, it’s a system to WIN, period. The $10 profit isn’t the point—the point is consistency. Most ppl out here lose $100-$200 on random bets and call it a day. Meanwhile, I’m building guaranteed profits one win at a time.

Plus, u can’t ignore bankroll management. If ur riskin’ $330 without the bankroll to back it up, THAT’S the mistake—not the system itself.

“Eventually the odds catch up to you.”​

This is just wrong. Odds don’t "catch up"—they’re fixed. If ur betting on something like even odds (e.g., -110 on a spread or a coin toss), the probabilities don’t suddenly shift against you over time. What DOES happen is ppl lose their nerve or make bad bets. That’s a discipline issue, NOT an odds issue.

The whole idea is that Martingale takes advantage of the fact that u only need ONE win to reset. It’s not about being “lucky” or avoiding a streak, it’s about HAVING THE BANKROLL to power through the streaks when they happen.

Martingale ain’t for everyone. It takes discipline, a solid bankroll, and the brains to know when to walk away. But the fact that it “falls apart” in certain scenarios doesn’t make it bad—it just means it requires STRATEGY.

The system WORKS if u work it right. U just need to stop blaming the tools and start learning how to use them. Winners win because they’re smart, not because they play scared. That’s why I’m up, and that’s why u can’t talk me out of this system.

I'm not going to try and talk you out of using this system. I would love to see you win thousands using it long-term. You will be the first.
Good luck.

 

[deviantgardener]

ROI is not your concern. Winning 10 bucks is.

This is a classic strawman. ROI is my concern, but it’s measured over the LONG TERM, not per individual bet. The $10 profit in a single run isn’t the goal—it’s the accumulation of consistent, low-risk wins over time.

So save the paragraphs where you're controlling variance with silly bet sizes.

Again, DEAD WRONG. you obviously don’t understand the mechanics of variance. Bet sizing is THE tool for managing risk in a betting system. By increasing bets after losses, Martingale ensures that ONE win compensates for the streak, resets the cycle, and locks in a profit.

 

[KVB]

Again, DEAD WRONG. you obviously don’t understand the mechanics of variance.

Maybe you misunderstood me.

You aren't controlling variance. You only think you are because you feel like you are controlling it's effect.

Those are two different things.

Like I said, I made the case that you have a game to play here, though I'm not sure you understand what's at play, so good luck to you.

 

[jjgold]

KVB wins thread

 

[BigJay]

My documented Baccarat thread is +$16,982 since last June.

 

[jjgold]

One of the reasons for casino limits is the Martingale system

 

[BigJay]

One of the reasons for casino limits is the Martingale system

 

[jjgold]

It’s hilarious how people think the Martingale system works

 

[flyingillini]

KVB wins thread

Always, he is the only one here with a clue. God Bless.

 

[flyingillini]

Look guy, I laid out the case that you have a game to play here.

I also said it's not the best way to ply the trade, but you do you, that's fine. ROI is not your concern. Winning 10 bucks is.

But that fact that you don't understand what "the odds will catch up to you" means, means that even if you are successful in your runs, you don't know why.

So save the paragraphs where you're controlling variance with silly bet sizes.

LMAO

Has he even used the variance calculator that was graced to the forum?

 

[vegas]

I know a lot of ppl out there say Martingale is "bad" or "risky" but lemme tell you the TRUTH from someone who knows this game inside out. I've been handicappin' for YEARS, and I'm here to show you why Martingale system WORKS if u do it SMART.

You only need ONE WIN to recover. The key is, u gotta pick bets with decent odds (like EVEN odds or close). Don’t go chasing some 20/1 shot and blame me if it don’t work.

Example:

• Bet 1: $10 (lose)
• Bet 2: $20 (lose)
• Bet 3: $40 (WIN)

When u win the $40, u recover $30 in losses and make $10 profit. Boom. Easy money.

This is really great stuff. I love how you use data to show that a bet made using a Martingale system has a positive expected value for the bettor.