Lets Talk About Martingale Systems and Why they are +EV

[deviantgardener]

I know a lot of ppl out there say Martingale is "bad" or "risky" but lemme tell you the TRUTH from someone who knows this game inside out. I've been handicappin' for YEARS, and I'm here to show you why Martingale system WORKS if u do it SMART.

You only need ONE WIN to recover. The key is, u gotta pick bets with decent odds (like EVEN odds or close). Don’t go chasing some 20/1 shot and blame me if it don’t work.

Example:

• Bet 1: $10 (lose)
• Bet 2: $20 (lose)
• Bet 3: $40 (WIN)

When u win the $40, u recover $30 in losses and make $10 profit. Boom. Easy money.

 

[JDS]

I know a lot of ppl out there say Martingale is "bad" or "risky" but lemme tell you the TRUTH from someone who knows this game inside out. I've been handicappin' for YEARS, and I'm here to show you why Martingale system WORKS if u do it SMART.

You only need ONE WIN to recover. The key is, u gotta pick bets with decent odds (like EVEN odds or close). Don’t go chasing some 20/1 shot and blame me if it don’t work.

Example:

• Bet 1: $10 (lose)
• Bet 2: $20 (lose)
• Bet 3: $40 (WIN)

When u win the $40, u recover $30 in losses and make $10 profit. Boom. Easy money.

This is how I play Baccarat, but I take it to the next extreme. For example bet the following below, but I do a 6 step Marty. You gotta have a cut off or it will bury you. Win past your bust out point and you make a profit. So I double and add a unit. I’ve never tried this for sports betting though.

Bet 1: $10
Bet 2: $30
Bet 3: $70

 

[KVB]

I know a lot of ppl out there say Martingale is "bad" or "risky" but lemme tell you the TRUTH from someone who knows this game inside out. I've been handicappin' for YEARS, and I'm here to show you why Martingale system WORKS if u do it SMART.

You only need ONE WIN to recover. The key is, u gotta pick bets with decent odds (like EVEN odds or close). Don’t go chasing some 20/1 shot and blame me if it don’t work.

Example:

• Bet 1: $10 (lose)
• Bet 2: $20 (lose)
• Bet 3: $40 (WIN)

When u win the $40, u recover $30 in losses and make $10 profit. Boom. Easy money.

I'll do you one better.

Why even bet the first two?

Just wait for the 3rd and bet $40.

Right?

lol

 

[Tanko]

You should keep going with your table.
Bet 4 $80
Bet 5 $60
Bet 6 120

Every subsequent bet is just an attempt to win back your original $10. The reward doesn't offset the dollars risked. On the 6th bet, you will have laid out $330 to win $10.


Finally the biggest downfall is that you hit a limit at a table or a sportsbook with this system.
It kind of falls apart on those bad runs, that do happen.

Casinos and books limit action so you can't redouble.
By the time you hit that limit you will have lost your a$$.

Sure its possible to win short-term with this but, eventually the odds catch up to you.

 

[KVB]

I used to count the rolls of the dice on the craps table, and when about 30 rolls went by and there wasn't double sixes, I would start betting it.

 

[KVB]

Every subsequent bet is just an attempt to win back your original $10. The reward doesn't offset the dollars risked.

Bingo.

Regardless of other very real pitfalls you mention.

But if you can narrow your bets to a certain type of streak that really only goes so far in some sports, with the occasional wild run, and he can tolerate the risk, then he has a decent game to play.

Even if there are better ways to ply the trade.

 

[KVB]

Bingo.

Regardless of other very real pitfalls you mention.

But if you can narrow your bets to a certain type of streak that really only goes so far in some sports, with the occasional wild run, and he can tolerate the risk, then he has a decent game to play.

Even if there are better ways to ply the trade.

Add to that Jerky's idea of cutting off, then, again, it's a game to play, but maybe not the best approach.

 

[KVB]

But if you can narrow your bets to a certain type of streak that really only goes so far in some sports, with the occasional wild run

OP mentions years of experience.

And if what I'm saying is what he's referring to as...

do it SMART

Then pretty much only years of experience will reveal those types of metrics.

I have a ton of them, that sometimes get folded into some analysis. Sometimes they show mathematical promise.

 

[JDS]

Add to that Jerky's idea of cutting off, then, again, it's a game to play, but maybe not the best approach.

I wouldn’t do this for sports only table games, since it’s instant gratitude, win or lose.

 

[KVB]

That said, you absolutely cannot use the size of your bets to gain some kind of EV or advantage that you didn't actually deserve to get.

It just doesn't work that way.

 

[KVB]

I wouldn’t do this for sports only table games.

No difference.

I had an epiphany once, when I was way younger, in Lake Tahoe at the Stateline casinos.

I realized that the sportsbook is just another casino game that's in the back of the casino, no different than all the other table games and slots out there.

Like blackjack, it's one of the games a skilled player can beat.

That realization changed the course of my life.

 

[JDS]

No difference.

I had an epiphany once, when I was way younger, in Lake Tahoe at the Stateline casinos.

I realized that the sportsbook is just another casino game that's in the back of the casino, no different than all the other table games and slots out there.

Like blackjack, it's one of the games a skilled player can beat.

That realization changed the course of my life.

That epiphany hasn’t shown its ugly face for me. My documented Baccarat thread is +$16,982 since last June. So you’re saying I should quit while I’m a head ?

 

[KVB]

That epiphany hasn’t shown its ugly face for me. My documented Baccarat thread is +$16,982 since last June. So you’re saying I should quit while I’m a head ?

No, not at all. It's not about how you view baccarat, it was about how to view sports.

Im saying that once I realized the sportsbook was just another casino game, that's when things really changed for me.

The flip of the card is no different than a sports play. One would argue that sports involves humans,college kids, blah blah blah blah..

But once they realize the two aren't different, then the path to successful sportsbetting can be paved.

 

[JDS]

No, not at all. It's not about how you view baccarat, it was about how to view sports.

Im saying that once I realized the sportsbook was just another casino game, that's when things really changed for me.

The flip of the card is no different than a sports play. One would argue that sports involves humans,college kids, blah blah blah blah..

But once they realize the two aren't different, then the path to successful sportsbetting can be paved.

At this point if my winnings go below +$10,000, I would just scale back and bet lower my amounts. I have a lot of fun playing Baccarat. As far as sportsbetting I feel lost KVB. I like to stick to things that work and alternate. That’s always been my strategy when trying to make money in this industry.

 

[Tanko]

At this point if my winnings go below +$10,000, I would just scale back and bet lower my amounts. I have a lot of fun playing Baccarat. As far as sportsbetting I feel lost KVB. I like to stick to things that work and alternate. That’s always been my strategy when trying to make money in this industry.

Its awesome that your winning.
Hope it continues.

 

[JDS]

Its awesome that your winning.
Hope it continues.

It’s definitely keeping my spirits up through this down cycle of sportsbetting.

 

[deviantgardener]

You should keep going with your table.
Bet 4 $80
Bet 5 $60
Bet 6 120

Every subsequent bet is just an attempt to win back your original $10. The reward doesn't offset the dollars risked. On the 6th bet, you will have laid out $330 to win $10.


Finally the biggest downfall is that you hit a limit at a table or a sportsbook with this system.
It kind of falls apart on those bad runs, that do happen.

Casinos and books limit action so you can't redouble.
By the time you hit that limit you will have lost your a$$.

Sure its possible to win short-term with this but, eventually the odds catch up to you.

Alright, I see what you’re saying, but let me explain why your argument doesn’t hold up. You’re lookin’ at Martingale like someone who doesn’t truly understand how to play the game. Let me break this down piece by piece.

“Bet 4 $80, Bet 5 $60, Bet 6 $120... laid out $330 to win $10”​

Yeah, that’s how it works. It’s not a system to win big every bet, it’s a system to WIN, period. The $10 profit isn’t the point—the point is consistency. Most ppl out here lose $100-$200 on random bets and call it a day. Meanwhile, I’m building guaranteed profits one win at a time.

Plus, u can’t ignore bankroll management. If ur riskin’ $330 without the bankroll to back it up, THAT’S the mistake—not the system itself.

“Eventually the odds catch up to you.”​

This is just wrong. Odds don’t "catch up"—they’re fixed. If ur betting on something like even odds (e.g., -110 on a spread or a coin toss), the probabilities don’t suddenly shift against you over time. What DOES happen is ppl lose their nerve or make bad bets. That’s a discipline issue, NOT an odds issue.

The whole idea is that Martingale takes advantage of the fact that u only need ONE win to reset. It’s not about being “lucky” or avoiding a streak, it’s about HAVING THE BANKROLL to power through the streaks when they happen.

Martingale ain’t for everyone. It takes discipline, a solid bankroll, and the brains to know when to walk away. But the fact that it “falls apart” in certain scenarios doesn’t make it bad—it just means it requires STRATEGY.

The system WORKS if u work it right. U just need to stop blaming the tools and start learning how to use them. Winners win because they’re smart, not because they play scared. That’s why I’m up, and that’s why u can’t talk me out of this system.

 

[deviantgardener]

That said, you absolutely cannot use the size of your bets to gain some kind of EV or advantage that you didn't actually deserve to get.

It just doesn't work that way.

Here’s the part you’re missing: Martingale isn’t about chasing unearned EV, it’s about controlling variance. You’re basically saying, “bet sizing doesn’t matter,” which is just flat-out WRONG.

The whole point of progressive betting systems like Martingale is to leverage your bankroll to smooth out variance. It’s not about magically making +EV bets appear—it’s about turning neutral EV bets into CONSISTENT profits by resetting after every win.

If you bet the same flat amount every time, you’re at the mercy of variance. Martingale flips that script by giving you the ability to recover and profit from bad runs. That’s the REAL advantage—discipline and bankroll management beat randomness.

 

[KVB]

This is just wrong. Odds don’t "catch up"—they’re fixed.

That is not what the term "the odds will catch up to you" means in this context.

This thread is going to be a disaster.

lol

 

[jjgold]

Martingale does not work because of limits

it would be 100% full proof with no limits