KSU -126

[pete0]

lol i like analyzing, post-game, after a L.

what we thought would happen, what the line was, how the line moved early ,late and the final result compared to line & consensus

maybe that guy is right, tourney , take all dogs blindly to the end. ..

 

[JDS]

lol i like analyzing, post-game, after a L.

what we thought would happen, what the line was, how the line moved early ,late and the final result compared to line & consensus

maybe that guy is right, tourney , take all dogs blindly to the end. ..

Yeah no problem pal just messing around. All things go in my threads I don’t discriminate against any discussions.

 

[rip007]

how so ?

wasnt this a coin flip game all along , in hindsight. ?

Public, I believe was 60% on K State, if you can believe the percentages, why try to do is looking at the difference between pinny and bet Cris, usually a slight difference in the numbers, I trust bet Chris , over Pinny, per my observations...
( 1st half stuff ) how the spreads and totals are Juiced'...... Lakerboy I followed across the street as I mentioned, think public likes full game stuff, it gets tricky, total in the Texas game was Juiced' to the over, then bet Chris went from -117 to -109 ? ....like sifting thru sand.....my observation seems to indicate pinny' juices 'the wrong side/total many times , fwiw

 

[pete0]

Public, I believe was 60% on K State, if you can believe the percentages, why try to do is looking at the difference between pinny and bet Cris, usually a slight difference in the numbers, I trust bet Chris , over Pinny, per my observations...
( 1st half stuff ) how the spreads and totals are Juiced'...... Lakerboy I followed across the street as I mentioned, think public likes full game stuff, it gets tricky, total in the Texas game was Juiced' to the over, then bet Chris went from -117 to -109 ? ....like sifting thru sand.....my observation seems to indicate pinny' juices 'the wrong side/total many times , fwiw

by betcris u mean BMaker right ?

ok so what % roughly would u say when the books disagree. and pinny juices apparent wrong side.
the right side wins ?

u brought up a very interesting aspect earlier, regarding 1H plays, since i do quite a bit of 1H and 1Q plays. a LOT of them, the dogs seem to be winning those Halves/ Qs SU . +ev. hard to evaluate and estimate nearly all gamest tho... idk

 

[pete0]

basically, what i'm saying is the "jumpstart" of a hoops game is wayyy off the line usually.

in ncaa hoops tho, i found obv. that if Team A is up 1H , Team B will score more points usually in the 2H.

its the 'jumpstart' . that i'm very interested in. NBA wise. will that team come out fired up?
i mean there are many intangibles probably not factored into the line.

did the team just have a locker meeting be4 game?
Did a star player look genuinely sad in post game interview ?
Did the coach cuss em out in public?
did the team just lose by 40+ pts in the prev. game and got embarassed ?
are they wearing special uniforms/shoes that day for saving the kids/ cancer or w/e ?

some teams like Mem, Den, Cle usually hit the gas right from the get go.

some teams dont. this is what we need to find.

is Eric gordon the laziest player in the league ? YES

 

[rip007]

Some would disagree, but I think pinny in essence,' juices' the wrong side...makes sense, from a 'profit' standpoint.to trick board watchers , (stats )are available in NBA for 1st qtr/halves ....Knicks and Bulls were excellent teams ATS in this regard, Pacers were the worst awhile back..... derivatives aren't always gonna get the attention, from the odds makers that full games do...just my take.....generally speaking, behavior patterns....I am looking at

 

[rip007]

Bookmaker a sharp book

 

[pete0]

Bookmaker a sharp book

ESPECIALLY in live bets. i've noticed. the right sides were juiced heavily .

 

[rip007]

There are 'feed delays' behind the scenes, watch out !.....from what I read best time to wager is during commercials and timeouts, I am on a website, looking at a couple of modeling guys, look at their picks and compare to what I see on the odds board, as a small recreational better, I don't take the time to track , head fakes are tough, but a reduced book, like Pinny is gonna draw' 'bees to Honey '....looking early in the line history, and seeing if there is any' buyback' stuff to watch

 

[JDS]

There are 'feed delays' behind the scenes, watch out !.....from what I read best time to wager is during commercials and timeouts, I am on a website, looking at a couple of modeling guys, look at their picks and compare to what I see on the odds board, as a small recreational better, I don't take the time to track , head fakes are tough, but a reduced book, like Pinny is gonna draw' 'bees to Honey '....looking early in the line history, and seeing if there is any' buyback' stuff to watch

Thanks for sharing your perspective on the live market possibilities.

 

[pete0]

LIVE betting is SUPER useful if done right.

hell, u could arb the chit out of some games, constantly betting both sides + ML . while taking the dog pre game. ML.

the line always seems to be overvalued on the team with some lead and its not even 3rd or 4thq yet .

 

[JDS]

LIVE betting is SUPER useful if done right.

hell, u could arb the chit out of some games, constantly betting both sides + ML . while taking the dog pre game. ML.

the line always seems to be overvalued on the team with some lead and its not even 3rd or 4thq yet .

I’m so green to this way of betting, I’m an
old school pregame bettor 99% of the time. I appreciate reading both you & @rip007 experiences in this market. Have you ever had a convo with KVB about live markets ? He often is sometimes a wizard on certain games when he shares his work with the forums.

 

[pete0]

KVB is a genius ..

 

[JDS]

KVB is a genius ..

Agreed, & most posters over there just fucking ignore him. I love the ignorance it’s funny to me.

 

[rip007]

Lakerboy and Paco were the best I have ever seen on these boards....over the years regarding line movement.....

 

[JDS]

Lakerboy and Paco were the best I have ever seen on these boards....over the years regarding line movement.....

I respect both those posters very much in forumville.

 

[pete0]

that place is dead asf. idk why they dont just move here.
This live auto notification thing here at BMR is amazing, easier to track down , which threads to follow. etc.

i mentioned it to nasher who is a uconn and mlb expert. a couple of times, with no avail.

 

[JDS]

that place is dead asf. idk why they dont just move here.
This live auto notification thing here at BMR is amazing, easier to track down , which threads to follow. etc.

i mentioned it to nasher who is a uconn and mlb expert. a couple of times, with no avail.

Some people are just creatures of habit, to explain why they don’t just transfer over.

 

[JDS]

When I 1st got over here I didn’t like the layout of the site initially & I bashed BMR incoherently . Some posters just don’t like the look of this place & can’t get past that initial adjustment.

 

[rip007]

One tip Lakerboy gave me NBA 9.5 10.5 dogs plus +442 ? +445 ? On pinny, take the dog ml and spread, especially a home dog......those 5pt dogs ml in the low 200 ml range he used to play as well