JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[flyingillini]

KVB curious if you played around with ProphetX or any of the sweepstakes models before the idiots in CA banned them.

Ese Loco, wait until the 25th. He is not able to see what we post. He sees our name but not the content. The 25th, he has access again.

 

[KVB]

I like Polymarket better. The juice is tighter and they even brag about it and the platform is very good if you’re just betting money lines that that’s all they really have and US sports.

Always good to have multiple outs but it seems I've seen far less offerings on poly when it comes to being able to misprice lines and then attack them.

Just look at the spread options for the NCAAF game on Monday night. I've got limit orders, some partially filled up and down those spreads on Kalshi, can only see 7.5 and 8.5 on Poly.

Because we can choose our price, we are not forced into anything we don't want because of the out itself.

As far as orders up and down the spreads, I can only hope on team doesn't come down with the flu on Sunday night. Talk about adverse selection, lol. But even if they did, we are not locked into the spreads and can be flexible in our positions.

If forced to be flexible, it can cost, but it's still better than a total loss and trying to be flexible in most books as risk management will inevitably give us a call when we try. There's only so many times a book will let us beat their numbers, the exchanges don't work that way.

 

[KVB]

...Our Kalshi venture is up 622% since it began December. I mentioned the ton of EV we can get from Kalshi...

@jjgold get down here to my office, we are killing it.

Up now over 700% since December 31st. We rarely have a losing trade, much less losing day.

Remember that 700% is over 100's of trades, not just 100% a couple of times.

There is so much EV oozing from these exhcanges that it's ridiculous, I sell back more EV than I ever did at the sportsbooks because there is so much out there.

Thought about live streaming the entire venture, even talked to my daughter about it. Show how to grow an account, like how fast can we take $100 to $1000, or $2000, then $5000, etc. I can do it, and they can't kick me out for it.

So far a congruent account to my moves on Kalshi that started with $100 would be over $700 in 3 weeks. And there were some big mistakes in some of that trading. Some really big mistakes.

Biggest part of the live stream would be the education. Been a long time since I've been so high on teaching, but have to admit so low on the platform, due to credibility reasons.

Perhaps if turtledoves posted at BMR, I might consider unleashing the gates with office livestreams.

Regardless, @jjgold you need to come down and see my operation. Using books, onshore and offshore, and the exchanges to make markets and sweep liquidity is proving highly lucrative.

There have been some liquidity issues on the exchanges, but thankfully I'm both an excellent expert handicapper and superior trader at the same time. Of course, we are learning where those lean markets are likely to pop up.

That combination of market making, liquidity sweeping, and my skills in the markets has been one of the best things we've seen to extract money from the sports markets in many years.

The boys back home are very excited. Sharon is thrilled.

Get some, Gold.

And call turtledoves.

 

[jjgold]

Wait till Polymarket gets full circle

Have you checked out Robin Hood?

USA books are doing everything in their power to stop these places because it’s gonna really really hurt them

FanDuel and DraftKings are very, very worried. All the big money is gonna go to the exchanges.

 

[Tanko]

Wait till Polymarket gets full circle

Have you checked out Robin Hood?

USA books are doing everything in their power to stop these places because it’s gonna really really hurt them

FanDuel and DraftKings are very, very worried. All the big money is gonna go to the exchanges.

The fact those markets are considered investments and not gambling bets is very leveraging now with the One Big Beautiful bill limiting gambling losses to 90% write-offs.

 

[jjgold]

I play more money lines these exchanges but seem to lose more vs spreads

 

[KVB]

I play more money lines these exchanges but seem to lose more vs spreads

Remember these KVB quotes...

"It's not what they bring, it's how they bring."

"It is only after you can appreciate what they bring that you can truly appreciate how they bring it."

Gold, quit betting on, or better yet don't just bet on, what they bring, use the exchanges to bet on how they bring it.

Like I said, EV is oozing from these places.

Have we seen turtledoves yet?

 

[KVB]

The fact those markets are considered investments and not gambling bets is very leveraging now with the One Big Beautiful bill limiting gambling losses to 90% write-offs.

Not sure if this will post, many of my post get deleted.

These are treated, currently, as futures contracts. One can day trade futures contracts and it will be treated like ordinary income, not capital gains.

At least for now.

So, of course, we are taking advantage.

 

[Tanko]

Not sure if this will post, many of my post get deleted.

These are treated, currently, as futures contracts. One can day trade futures contracts and it will be treated like ordinary income, not capital gains.

At least for now.

So, of course, we are taking advantage.

That is interesting.
Correct me if I'm wrong but futures are taxed 60/40 Long-term/Short-term rate right?

 

[jjgold]

I don’t know if they’re considered futures it’s very complicated

 

[KVB]

I don’t know if they’re considered futures it’s very complicated

They are considered futures, regulated by the CFTC.

That part is not up for debate.

Currently we will be treating it as a Section 1256 using 60/40 capital gain treatment, with the ability to deduct losses.

That could change this year, though; but I don't expect it to change.

I think you can use schedule 1 as other income or schedule D as investment gains and losses.

All I know is that, as per usual, we are tracking every single trade, including the time stamp, for the IRS.

 

[KVB]

Up now over 700% since December 31st. We rarely have a losing trade, much less losing day.

Remember that 700% is over 100's of trades, not just 100% a couple of times.

@jjgold as of last night the Kalshi accounts are now up over 1000%. It took 3 weeks and 3 days and hundreds of trades to get there.

Best thing isn't that I can do this over and over again, which I can, it's that we can't get kicked out and limits are limited to the liquidity available.

Was going to live stream this, but maybe I'll start over with a $100 or $1000 account and try to grow it 10x in three weeks. It's definitely repeatable. Although I will say this time of year, once SuperBowl fades, will probably provide a bit less in returns and take a little longer. Then March Madness will hit.

Prediction markets are oozing EV, just oozing it.

Have we seen turtledoves around?

Good Luck, Gold.

"Everybody's braggin' and drinking that wine.
I can tell the Queen of Diamoinds by the way she shines.
Come to daddy on an inside straight.
Well I got no chance of losing this time."

--Robert Hunter, The Grateful Dead.

 

[jjgold]

I’ve been looking into arbs It’s still hard.

 

[KVB]

I’ve been looking into arbs It’s still hard.

Why just arb? I'm telling you there is EV all over the place. Did you not understand what I'm saying here??....

The EV is ripe for the taking. I can tell when some markets are dominated by sharper groups. They are out there. I currently have a few resting orders sitting out there, creating liqidity and commission free if they get taken.

So that's the game. I'm calculating EV, is the counterparty? If you take one of my sides, and I got the EV, where does that leave you?

Can you pick up what I'm putting down?

The best part is still the idea of no risk managment.

But that's not why a came here to post. I have a story...

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

But that's not why a came here to post. I have a story...

 

[KVB]

Had a great weekend trading, but money shifted drastically on my way to profits.

So -7.5 favorite Wisconsin is taking on USC. Wisconsin leads 41-39 at halftime so I take USC to win and get +7.5 and +10.5 in the market at acceptable prices; basically shorting Wisconsin where I could.

I see this game being a barn burner in the end and even if it looks like USC will win, I can sell out of the moneyline, I figure at 2 to 3 times my stake.

So I get in, keep setting orders, and keep getting filled. I have pretty big overall position on the ml and spreads.

Right away USC takes a 44-41 lead and we're off. When it was tied at 44 I told my wife that "as long as Wisconsin doesn't go on a 10 or 12 point run, we're good."

Welp, it's tied 46-46 then next thing I know USC is trailing 58-46.

Fawk. Here's the moneyline probability chart...

I bought when USC was about .24 at the blue highlight. Enjoyed that little bump at the beginning of the half.

Now, I could have sold. My position was big enough to get profit from just that bump across the bets, moneyline and spreads. But I didn't sell.

As you can see, the chart dropped to like 2%, spreads and moneyline just tanked. I saw thousands and thousands evaporate in seconds. I was exposed to the hilt. I could still have sold to save some funds, enough worth saving. My phone started ringing. Holy shit what have I done?

But I held. @DiggityDaggityDo knows that I know things, so I held. I didn't buy more, I was already overexposed, I just held. I held off the texts and calls, and the next thing I know, USC is winning 62-60 as I held all positons to completion.

The swing here was sick. Just sick. Even for me, as those who know, as I'm the one who is supposed to be cold as fukking ice on these transactions.

But I have to admit, yesterday, I was feeling a bit like Big Worm...

@DiggityDaggityDo I'll do this real time during March Madness, but kind of pointless if posts don't get through. You know I know that you know that I know some things.

Anyway, what a fucking ride on what ended up being a pretty big weekend for the KVB Kalshi Funds.

"I been gamblin' hereabouts for ten good solid years
If I told you all that went down, it would burn off both your little ears.."

--Robert Hunter and Jerry Garcia.

"Never be in a hurry to make a bet and lose."

---KVB

 

[KVB]

View attachment 84237

At the risk of being cancelled for digital blackface, all I can say is I was like..

 

[jjgold]

I think Kalshi a little more liquid than Robinhood


Polymarket, it’s too early. They’re still really not full-blown.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

But I held. @DiggityDaggityDo knows that I know things, so I held. I didn't buy more, I was already overexposed, I just held. I held off the texts and calls

KVB I can’t believe you didn’t answer my calls. I was shitting bricks. I called you from my office 5 times.

KVB, you left me hanging like…