JDS Football picks thread 2025.

[BMR Genie]

2-1 +1.01

135-113 +36.02 Units YTD


Still pending for tomorrow.

Great weekend winning, JDS.

Also, let's go, Houston!

 

[JDS]

Great weekend winning, JDS.

Also, let's go, Houston!

If I can hit this parlay I’ll be that much closer to my +40 unit goal for the season.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

2-1 +1.01

135-113 +36.02 Units YTD


Still pending for tomorrow.

+36u my man’s eatin!

 

[justlooking]

Miami/Indiana/Texans parlay +297

@JDS I asked the same to stormtrooper8 so here it is.

I have a parlay ticket with Texans ML as the last leg which pays $18K+.

I don't like the fact that just about every book has a higher juice (anywhere from +3-114 to +3-118) on the Pittsburgh Steelers spread which basically tells me that they are asking the public to bet on the Texans which cannot be a good thing.

I'm beginning to think that I should hedge out by betting $6K on the Steelers +3.

If it middles, then I could win $24K+ but I'm sure that's a wishful thinking. At least I won't have to sweat the game since I will be winning something.

What do you think?

 

[JDS]

@JDS I asked the same to stormtrooper8 so here it is.

I have a parlay ticket with Texans ML as the last leg which pays $18K+.

I don't like the fact that just about every book has a higher juice (anywhere from +3-114 to +3-118) on the Pittsburgh Steelers spread which basically tells me that they are asking the public to bet on the Texans which cannot be a good thing.

I'm beginning to think that I should hedge out by betting $6K on the Steelers +3.

If it middles, then I could win $24K+ but I'm sure that's a wishful thinking. At least I won't have to sweat the game since I will be winning something.

What do you think?

We’re in the exact same spot as the Texans on this final leg to cash out. Your ticket’s worth way more than mine, so I’m just letting it ride. Gotta ask yourself, what are your real goals for 2026 ? I’m not the hedging type my parlays are usually small, low-risk plays anyway.

So think about it, does locking in the 6K guaranteed profit move the needle toward your yearly targets, or is chasing the full 18K payout or more what you actually need to hit them ? Great question & I’m glad you are asking other experienced bettors their thoughts, smart gambler.

 

[justlooking]

We’re in the exact same spot as the Texans on this final leg to cash out. Your ticket’s worth way more than mine, so I’m just letting it ride. Gotta ask yourself, what are your real goals for 2026 ? I’m not the hedging type my parlays are usually small, low-risk plays anyway.

So think about it, does locking in the 6K guaranteed profit move the needle toward your yearly targets, or is chasing the full 18K payout or more what you actually need to hit them ? Great question & I’m glad you are asking other experienced bettors their thoughts, smart gambler.

Thank you for your reply.

I'm just curious, doesn't how all books have the Steelers higher juiced at +3-115 to +3-118 concern you at all?

That and how the Steelers have supposedly never lost MNF at home in Tomlin's tenure concerns me.

But in the end, it's the better team who should win and it's the Texans.

 

[JDS]

Thank you for your reply.

I'm just curious, doesn't how all books have the Steelers higher juiced at +3-115 to +3-118 concern you at all?

That and how the Steelers have supposedly never lost MNF at home in Tomlin's tenure concerns me.

But in the end, it's the better team who should win and it's the Texans.

The juice on either side never fazes me, the books are just hunting for their balanced middle anyway. That MNF trend is real, and I definitely don’t love going against it, but I’ve cashed plenty riding the Steelers as a strong supporting angle during their streak.

Texans D is legit as hell right now, so I say let that bet ride. If it goes south and you tail, don’t come back in here crying that I fucked you, we’re all grown men making our own calls with our own money. That said, go with your gut on this one and not blindly following anyone else’s opinion.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

This would be a good time for @KVB to pop in.

 

[JDS]

This would be a good time for @KVB to pop in.

One of the last times he popped in, fuckin’ guy called me a square. Did not appreciate that the least bit. If I’m a square then he over analyzes shit way too often. We’ll leave it at that.

 

[renegade]

One of the last times he popped in, fuckin’ guy called me a square. Did not appreciate that the least bit. If I’m a square then he over analyzes shit way too often. We’ll leave it at that.

There are a few in here that think they are experts on everything and then discredit everyone else’s opinion. I just ignore it all. We should all be freely discussing different perspectives on games. In the end it makes everyone better.

 

[justlooking]

The juice on either side never fazes me, the books are just hunting for their balanced middle anyway. That MNF trend is real, and I definitely don’t love going against it, but I’ve cashed plenty riding the Steelers as a strong supporting angle during their streak.

Texans D is legit as hell right now, so I say let that bet ride. If it goes south and you tail, don’t come back in here crying that I fucked you, we’re all grown men making our own calls with our own money. That said, go with your gut on this one and not blindly following anyone else’s opinion.

Thanks again for your input.

Whatever I decide, it's ultimately on me so I would never complain to anyone if it doesn't work out. Thanks again.

 

[JDS]

Thanks again for your input.

Whatever I decide, it's ultimately on me so I would never complain to anyone if it doesn't work out. Thanks again.

Good luck buddy

 

[JDS]

There are a few in here that think they are experts on everything and then discredit everyone else’s opinion. I just ignore it all. We should all be freely discussing different perspectives on games. In the end it makes everyone better.

Easier said than done for me, something I still need to learn as a poster, maybe one day lol. (In regards to ignoring it all.)

 

[justlooking]

Two books where I normally track line movements just went Houston -2.5-117 (BetRivers) and -2.5-118 (betPARX).

Hopefully, it's nothing more than balancing $ action but who the hell knows why they did that.

I check two sites for bet percentages (scoresandodds and actionnetwork) and it looks to me like the action is pretty even on both sides; # of tickets and $ bet so it makes me wonder why they are even moving the line like that. If all books follow that trend, i.e. moving line to -2.5 then what does that mean?

Only Hard Rock bet has Pittsburgh +3-105 and I'm staying at Hard Rock casino hotel, so if I was to hedge then I have the best odd here.

I should just go to bed and not even watch the game and wake up to a surprise one way or another. LOL

 

[JDS]

Two books where I normally track line movements just went Houston -2.5-117 (BetRivers) and -2.5-118 (betPARX).

Hopefully, it's nothing more than balancing $ action but who the hell knows why they did that.

I check two sites for bet percentages (scoresandodds and actionnetwork) and it looks to me like the action is pretty even on both sides; # of tickets and $ bet so it makes me wonder why they are even moving the line like that. If all books follow that trend, i.e. moving line to -2.5 then what does that mean?

Only Hard Rock bet has Pittsburgh +3-105 and I'm staying at Hard Rock casino hotel, so if I was to hedge then I have the best odd here.

I should just go to bed and not even watch the game and wake up to a surprise one way or another. LOL

I’m getting the same exact money/handle as you are from the source I follow & trust.

 

[justlooking]

Here's an unscientific way of picking sides.

I have 2 girls and they know nothing about football.

Just for fun, I sometimes ask them to see which team they like. One seems to pick more winners than losers and the other the opposite.

I just asked them and one that usually picks the winners likes Houston Texans and the other likes Pittsburgh Steelers.

Instead of hedging, I may have to double down on the Texans?

Here's another interesting tidbit.

I use both DraftKings and FanDuel to make test parlay bets. When the Cash Out comes back with really low amount, then I know my parlay is dead on arrival and I won't make the bigger bet. When I tested it with my current pending parlay, Fanduel originally came back with something like 78% Cash Out amount, but within 1/2 hour so, it went back up to full 100% Cash Out amount which was really odd.

It could mean nothing, but my thinking is that it's all AI done and therefore if there is a remote chance that I could win the parlay, then they are offering me to take the bet back so I don't win anything.

What do you think of that logic?

 

[justlooking]

I’m getting the same exact money/handle as you are from the source I follow & trust.

View attachment 83073

I'm glad you are seeing the same thing I've been seeing.

I would hate to be on the public side except that they seem to have cleaned up this past weekend in the Wild Card games.

 

[JDS]

Here's an unscientific way of picking sides.

I have 2 girls and they know nothing about football.

Just for fun, I sometimes ask them to see which team they like. One seems to pick more winners than losers and the other the opposite.

I just asked them and one that usually picks the winners likes Houston Texans and the other likes Pittsburgh Steelers.

Instead of hedging, I may have to double down on the Texans?

Here's another interesting tidbit.

I use both DraftKings and FanDuel to make test parlay bets. When the Cash Out comes back with really low amount, then I know my parlay is dead on arrival and I won't make the bigger bet. When I tested it with my current pending parlay, Fanduel originally came back with something like 78% Cash Out amount, but within 1/2 hour so, it went back up to full 100% Cash Out amount which was really odd.

It could mean nothing, but my thinking is that it's all AI done and therefore if there is a remote chance that I could win the parlay, then they are offering me to take the bet back so I don't win anything.

What do you think of that logic?

As for the FanDuel cash-out jumping back to 100% after dipping low, that’s almost certainly just real-time odds/line movement recalculating behind the scenes via injuries, live betting action, hedging by other bettors, etc.

It’s algorithmic, not some sneaky “AI trying to stop you from winning conspiracy”. Books offer cash-out to manage their risk, but they don’t target individual bettors like that. When your parlay looks healthier again, the offer improves pure math not malice.

 

[justlooking]

As for the FanDuel cash-out jumping back to 100% after dipping low, that’s almost certainly just real-time odds/line movement recalculating behind the scenes via injuries, live betting action, hedging by other bettors, etc.

It’s algorithmic, not some sneaky “AI trying to stop you from winning conspiracy”. Books offer cash-out to manage their risk, but they don’t target individual bettors like that. When your parlay looks healthier again, the offer improves pure math not malice.

Sounds good. Thanks again as usual.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Jerky, do you watch this channel? It’s in Florida.