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Is Washington The Sharp Side Tonight?

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Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,475
The line is a tough one to get an edge on.
WAS offense is slightly better than PHI.
PHI defense is MUCH better than WAS defense.

Offensively:
WAS #1 Rush EPA, #2 Pass EPA
PHI #5 Rush EPA, #13 Pass EPA

Defensively:
WAS #27 Rush EPA, #24 Pass EPA
PHI #7 Rush EPA, #6 Pass EPA

Their SOS are comparable. PHI 19th, WAS 26th and they've played many of the same teams.
I would lean into PHI to cover. Their defense will slow down the rookie QB.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,099
Classic example of a great game to watch - horrible game to wager on.

Bouncing between 3’-4 earlier I saw - Washington is surprising and definitely beating expectations- despite not being as great lately - Philly is failing to meet high expectations despite continuing to win.

Philly running game likely the difference here - but it’s a division game and both teams want to win. If I had to pick a side - Philly - but I just don’t like the feel of this one - cost to much to play the side I like and not sure yet which direction Washington goes in this game.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
42,475
Washington has only played against 2 top 10 defenses this year. Both games were at home.
  • Chicago - WAS won by 3
  • Pittsburgh - WAS lost by 1
PHI is #6 on EPA-defense.

I also like that PHI defense has improved significantly over the last 4 weeks.
The only concern is will PHI play well like they did vs DAL, CIN, NYG, or will they play like crap like they did vs JAX, CLE......


1731614598919.jpeg
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
52,823

Pro sports bettors back same side in Commanders-Eagles ‘TNF’ game​

LV REVIEW JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTION

The betting public is split on the Commanders-Eagles game on “Thursday Night Football.” But professional sports bettors are clearly on Philadelphia.

The Eagles opened as 3-point home favorites before inching up to 3½, and the consensus line climbed to 4 on Thursday.

“Sharps on Eagles -3½,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said in a text message. “Public on Commanders at 70 percent of the tickets and 69 percent of the money.”

Pro sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw said he made a pretty big play on the Eagles, who have won five straight games and covered three of their past four.

“I do like tonight’s game quite a bit,” he said Thursday. “The Eagles have been running the ball really well. Washington’s not really good against the run. I like playing the home team on the Thursday night games. It’s an advantage because they don’t have to travel, and it’s a short week.

“The Eagles are playing very, very well. I made the game (-6), and I think the Eagles should be a much bigger favorite. I just think the Eagles are going to be able to control both lines of scrimmage.”

At BetMGM sportsbook, 79 percent of the money is on the Eagles, according to BetMGM analyst John Ewing.

At Station Sports, 57 percent of the tickets are on Philadelphia (7-2, 5-4 ATS), which has a half-game lead over Washington (7-3, 7-2-1 ATS) in the NFC East.

“The handle’s been phenomenal on this game. Last week’s Ravens-Bengals and this week’s game are the two best handles of the year on Thursday night,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “It’s a big game for both teams, as they’re battling for the division. Whoever wins this game will be in control until they meet again.

“I think we’re going to need the Commanders. But right now we’re getting good two-way action on the game.”

The consensus total is 49½. Washington is on a 6-2 over run and is tied for the NFL’s best over-under record at 7-3.

Philadelphia has won five of the past six meetings with the Commanders, though Washington is 2-0-1 ATS in the past three matchups.

The Commanders, +180 on the money line, were on a 7-0-1 cover streak before last week’s 28-27 loss to the Steelers.
 
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