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Iran 🇮🇷 vs Qatar 🇶🇦 *Battle of the heavyweights* AFC Asian Cup!

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qurious$

qurious$

Joined
Sep 16, 2023
Messages
419
My breakdown of Cup Win probabilities after the first Semi:
40% Iran
40% Jordan
20% Qatar

Iran is -EV (for the first time this tournament?)
Qatar is breakeven
Jordan is +EV (again!)
 

qurious$

qurious$

Joined
Sep 16, 2023
Messages
419
My breakdown of Cup Win probabilities after the first Semi:
40% Iran
40% Jordan
20% Qatar

Iran is -EV (for the first time this tournament?)
Qatar is breakeven
Jordan is +EV (again!)
Have money on Jordan, but not a lot. Added +450 Qatar. Now I'll lose 2.5 units if Iran wins two more games, win 5 if Jordan wins and win 3.5 if Qatar wins. The market says Iran is the AFC champion well over 50% of the time. We disagree.
 

BMR Genie

BMR Genie

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Jun 16, 2016
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30,259

flyingillini

flyingillini

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qurious$

qurious$

Joined
Sep 16, 2023
Messages
419
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