Rudy,
This weekend is it. Reds going to win at least one game.
Today they have the better starting pitcher: Overton vs Brubaker.
Batting for the season, these teams are about equal but, over the last 10 days, the Reds have been hitting very well, much better than their season average. The Pirates have are doing slightly worse than their season average.
Relief pitching is the kicker. Pirates are stout on relief pitching. The Reds, not so much. The Reds also burned through a lot of their bullpen the last couple of days vs Brewers. hey probably only have Hoffman and Diaz to rely upon for any distance. Pirates bullpen is rested up (off Thursday and minor load on them in Wednesday's game).
I'm thinking of betting Reds today +109. If they lose, I we look at the odds for game 1 Saturday to double. We see how that game goes and do the same again on the double header later on Saturday (if they lose game 1). Realize the Reds will have Mahle pitching at some point in this series. I'm guessing game 2 Saturday or on Sunday.