Ultimately- I think you’re correct with the assessment for certain operators - I/E tribal casinos and the apps.
Gaming domestically outside of Vegas is defensive - any loss of vacation dollars will be made up for in locals taking shorter vacations to local properties and short stays. For example - you’ll see a dip in East/midwesterners going to Vegas for a week - but those funds will shift to casinos in their home states/neighboring states.
Where this is likely to hit hard is the international market and names like Wynn with large exposure to Asian markets and Macau for example. Again - these types are pretty resilient - but you’ll see less luxury spending from them and a cut back on trips to the US as the whole trade war continues.
The bottom line is blue collar is going to gamble - but the high end and most profitable players cut back and despite being 20% of the players in a normal US casino - they probably make up 40-50% of the margins as they spend and aren’t afraid to splurge. The good news is Joe Consumer is already getting familiar with higher food prices for example - so casinos will be able to raise prices on dining and lodging and avoid having to take a loss on these to pull in players. Comps will inevitably be cut back and there will be less competitive pressures for all but the most profitable players.
It’s the international market that’s going to determine how bad this becomes for operators.
