How to beat closing line

[billybobcoverz]

Spanky would say that your sample size is too small.

He says atleast 1k

 

[wwurmeier]

I am a bit new to sports betting and have spent time watching a Spankodds screen and following sharp books...but I still haven't beat the closing line consistently or am totally sure how to predict line movement and where the market is going...does anyone here have any tips or advice on how to do this? is it following steam? picking off numbers? Anything helps. Thank you guys

Which sport(s) do you follow/have experience with?

Which books do you have access to?

 

[billybobcoverz]

Which sport(s) do you follow/have experience with?

Which books do you have access to?

CBB

Access? Like betting wise or watching lines? I have SpankOdds, and in terms of betting, BetSTS, Buckeye, 5pph, purewage, bol, bookmaker, bovada, all the big offshore

 

[wwurmeier]

CBB

Access? Like betting wise or watching lines? I have SpankOdds, and in terms of betting, BetSTS, Buckeye, 5pph, purewage, bol, bookmaker, bovada, all the big offshore

Yes, like if you wanted to take the next step and deposit $100 and bet $1 a game to 'make it real', which books would take your deposit?

Variety of your betting outs is as important as beating the closer

 

[wwurmeier]

If you start with $100 and work your way towards $200, base betting $1 a game, you will accomplish that goal much faster, if your money is in 3-5 different books compared to only betting at 1 book and never really line shopping.

 

[billybobcoverz]

If you start with $100 and work your way towards $200, base betting $1 a game, you will accomplish that goal much faster, if your money is in 3-5 different books compared to only betting at 1 book and never really line shopping.

I have 4 different pphs and every offshore

 

[wwurmeier]

If you are a lifetime loser (like I am and like most here are), you should have no problem getting the best line, every time. So it looks like this aspect is taken care of. You have the outs you need.

Now you just need a way to find hundreds of bets, and keep them small enough, to find where you might have an edge over hundreds of people who are trying to do the same thing you are doing, and probably are smarter and better bankrolled than you.

I wish you the best trying to beat an unbeatable game

 

[castelion]

If you're winning you're probably beating the closing line. By itself beating the closing line means nothing.

Most importantly you need to understand that value betting means beating a zero juice line. There is no value in getting -105 on a game where the line is -110 either side. The zero juice line in that example is +100. Long term the only way to win is to beat the zero juice line. Even if your analysis is correct you'll still need some luck.

Experience told me the NFL Conference Championship lines opened away from where they should be. The zero juice line on the Ravens was off by at least 4%, (which is a lot), and the 49ers line was off by about 1.75%. By kickoff the handicaps had moved from borderline -3/-3.5 to -4.5 on the Ravens and from -6.5 to -7.5 on the 49ers. I was right, but it didn't do me any good.

Beating the closing line matters if the closing line is efficient, you're beating the zero juice closing line, you're betting volume, and you can withstand a streak of extreme misfortune. Good luck.

 

[wwurmeier]

Would be great to have another solid capper to tail. For now I've learnt that @Tanko and @JDS are more likely to win, than lose and I try to tail every chance I get, not really knowing anything about the sport of college basketball.

 

[wwurmeier]

If you're winning you're probably beating the closing line. By itself beating the closing line means nothing.

Most importantly you need to understand that value betting means beating a zero juice line. There is no value in getting -105 on a game where the line is -110 either side. The zero juice line in that example is +100. Long term the only way to win is to beat the zero juice line. Even if your analysis is correct you'll still need some luck.

Experience told me the NFL Conference Championship lines opened away from where they should be. The zero juice line on the Ravens was off by at least 4%, (which is a lot), and the 49ers line was off by about 1.75%. By kickoff the handicaps had moved from borderline -3/-3.5 to -4.5 on the Ravens and from -6.5 to -7.5 on the 49ers. I was right, but it didn't do me any good.

Beating the closing line matters if the closing line is efficient, you're beating the zero juice closing line, you're betting volume, and you can withstand a streak of extreme misfortune. Good luck.

Players who disregard this important idea, can triple their bankroll a lot faster than the more solid ones. But they also go broke 10x as often.

 

[billybobcoverz]

If you're winning you're probably beating the closing line. By itself beating the closing line means nothing.

Most importantly you need to understand that value betting means beating a zero juice line. There is no value in getting -105 on a game where the line is -110 either side. The zero juice line in that example is +100. Long term the only way to win is to beat the zero juice line. Even if your analysis is correct you'll still need some luck.

Experience told me the NFL Conference Championship lines opened away from where they should be. The zero juice line on the Ravens was off by at least 4%, (which is a lot), and the 49ers line was off by about 1.75%. By kickoff the handicaps had moved from borderline -3/-3.5 to -4.5 on the Ravens and from -6.5 to -7.5 on the 49ers. I was right, but it didn't do me any good.

Beating the closing line matters if the closing line is efficient, you're beating the zero juice closing line, you're betting volume, and you can withstand a streak of extreme misfortune. Good luck.

Yes, it goes back to my fundamental point if you lay -5 on a game that closes -7, you are beating the zero juice closing line

 

[JDS]

I seem to beat the closers at MLB more than any other sport. For me that market is easier to decipher. NCAAB is a lot harder for me for some reason, but I can still pick winners at a pretty good clip. Football can be challenging too, beating the closer is very important for your bottom line long term, but I’m no expert at it tbh.

 

[Tanko]

Thanks Tanko, would love to learn how you use line movement in your betting

I'm a bottom-up bettor (not top-down). When I look over line moves its usually after I've made my bets. As I mentioned, early lines are better to pick from so line moves are mostly after I've made bet.

I will look at the lines only to see if I completely missed what I expected to be the trend on the pick and to see how I'm doing vs CLV but not much more.

GL billybob

 

[Tanko]

I wish you the best trying to beat an unbeatable game

Great quote wwumeier.

We can all still dream to..... beat the game someday.

 

[jjgold]

I would use Don Best it’s a much better software platform