#1 Light On Chicks
Form: 2-for-3 in 2025, including a gutsy wire-to-wire win at 350Y last out.
Figures: Peaked with a 74 speed figure; plenty of 50s in earlier efforts, so that 74 may be an outlier.
Pace/Style: Has shown early speed; can break well and control pace up front.
Concerns: Lightly raced and inconsistent before this recent spike. Win came in a short field where he barely held on.
Trainer/Jockey: Holdaway is cold (4% win rate), and Rodriguez is winless in 101 starts in 2025.
Verdict: Dangerous if he repeats last effort, but regression is a concern. Use underneath.
#2 Tubac Royale
Form: 10-year-old veteran, still firing good races. Multiple runner-up finishes at 300Y-250Y last year.
Figures: Speed figs in the mid/high 70s, with a 90 (!) at Rillito in 2023. Very competitive at this level.
Pace/Style: Likes to stalk and pounce. Keeps showing up late on the scene.
Concerns: Win-shy lately (0-for-last-10), and he doesn’t seem to have that extra gear to pass horses.
Trainer/Jockey: New barn; trainer has no recent wins. Rider is 0-for-2 this year.
Verdict: Reliable to run well, rarely wins. Strong exacta/key candidate in 2nd.
#3 Lolo Machete Blue
Form: Tough, consistent type who always shows up. Hit the board in 5 of last 6.
Figures: Consistent mid-60s to low-70s. Not flashy, but effective.
Pace/Style: Has some early foot but prefers to stalk. Minor trouble in recent races.
Concerns: Lacks a killer instinct—only 2 wins from 16 starts. But fights on for minor awards.
Trainer/Jockey: Solid combo—Canez wins at 14%, Gutierrez at 13%.
Verdict: Very playable. Always in the mix. Must-use in verticals.
Summary:
This race sets up pretty evenly. Light On Chicks might try to steal it again, but Lolo Machete Blue is sneaky good, and Tubac Royale is your “professional runner-up.”
Exacta Recommendation:
Primary Exacta: 3 / 1,2
Lolo Machete Blue to win, with Light On Chicks or Tubac Royale finishing second.
Rationale: Lolo’s consistency and the rider/trainer edge give him the edge. Light On Chicks could regress a bit, and Tubac is more likely to clunk up late.
Backup Saver Exacta: 1 / 3,2
In case Light On Chicks repeats that last breakout performance on the front end.
