Hardest sport to cap?

[KVB]

Harness racing there are certain slots that are actually more advantageous I think so they win more often.

Used to make a killing back in the day on harness racing.

For horse racing, we always had the best success when capping the jockies first, then the horses.

@str might be able to attest to the importance of the jockeys, especially in the past.

To truly succeed in the racket of horse racing, it really comes down to who you know over what you know. I doubt that has changed much over the years.

 

[str]

The thing with horse racing is it’s parimutual. You will NEVER beat the book long term as the book has a takeout - you are simply outsmarting others and their ability to predict a winner - which is certainly achievable.

When everyone else zigs you’ve got to zag. When you everyone sees a reason why a horse will win - you need to find the one that can beat them - or if nothing else the 2nd best horse by far and take them to place.

Too many in horse racing get caught up in “sure things” and chasing exotics. Got to go low hold bets and learning what tracks/jockeys/trainers seem to do well. It’s not hard if you truly apply yourself - but you’ve got to have a ton of time - deep resources and the skill to do it - which eliminates many.

Exotics takeouts are even worse. And betting the card is death valley. Better just be having fun.

If you are selective and are there to make real money, it can be done. But the amount of time, work and knowledge required is a lot.

If you go for the day, I always recommend to take whatever amount someone can afford to lose and enjoy the day. Let's say, 5 bucks a race. So 50 bucks. But keep an extra 50 or whatever your limit in your wallet just in case you see something that day. You never know but keep it separate from all other bets..

That takes control. But if you do not have that at the track, your done before you start.

Sounds to me that you already know all that. Hope it helps someone though.

 

[str]

Used to make a killing back in the day on harness racing.

For horse racing, we always had the best success when capping the jockies first, then the horses.

@str might be able to attest to the importance of the jockeys, especially in the past.

To truly succeed in the racket of horse racing, it really comes down to who you know over what you know. I doubt that has changed much over the years.

The tip stuff is mostly B.S. KVB.

Sure, jocks are important but everybody bets the leading rider . If you can find a lower % rider that finishes 3rd or 4th a lot on those longshots, if they get a mount that is solid, like 5,6,7,8-1that is a great way to look at riders. Or a rider that has a ton of 3rds but only rides longer priced horses. That screams hidden talent.

 

[KVB]

The tip stuff is mostly B.S. KVB.

Sure, jocks are important but everybody bets the leading rider . If you can find a lower % rider that finishes 3rd or 4th a lot on those longshots, if they get a mount that is solid, like 5,6,7,8-1that is a great way to look at riders. Or a rider that has a ton of 3rds but only rides longer priced horses. That screams hidden talent.

I agree with your post. I'm most definitely not talking about tip stuff.

I'm talking being around and knowledge of the owners, jockeys and/or stables. It becomes a who you know over what you know. It's probably still very true.

We used have many successful runs, even beating a successful computer program we paid for, but ONLY capping the jockeys.

Got to a point a I could tell which jockey would likely win place or show just based on the odds and the other jockeys in the race. Literally never even considered the horses unless it was a light colored or grey horse, lol.

They were running a program and just swapping around horses. We figured it out.

 

[str]

I agree with your post. I'm most definitely not talking about tip stuff.

I'm talking being around and knowledge of the owners, jockeys and/or stables. It becomes a who you know over what you know. It's probably still very true.

We used have many successful runs, even beating a successful computer program we paid for, but ONLY capping the jockeys.

Got to a point a I could tell which jockey would likely win place or show just based on the odds and the other jockeys in the race. Literally never even considered the horses unless it was a light colored or grey horse, lol.

They were running a program and just swapping around horses. We figured it out.

Very interesting. Good stuff !

The old grey horse in the mud is very real. It is because typically light colored horses or chestnut horses with white stockings have tender feet, more so than others. The off track, mud, slop, whatever does not vibrate as hard and they appreciate that. That is one reason why greys run well on off tracks or turf. It is simply softer to the feet which tend to be more tender than the other horses.

And as a result, they trust the surface and will reach out further than the others who are a little apprehensive about the off track. Like when we take baby steps on the ice. Slows you down.

 

[rickeyphillips]

VAR murdered betting soccer overs. Reviewing every goal to see if a pubic hair was offsides. Reviewing every penalty awarded. Overs were great pre-var. There are leagues that still don’t have it but for most part all the upper leagues do. England championship about the most competitive above board league that doesn’t have VAR. Totals only way to bet soccer. No one is betting three way sides and winning. It’s impossible.