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Hardest sport to cap?

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BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
14,366
NBA

I used to get on some great streaks with the Spurs during their title runs, and even during the Bulls runs in the 90s when I first started betting

It’s impossible nowadays with everyone sitting with little injuries, to rest, etc

Lines adjust big as a result and then some scrub you never heard of goes off and beats you.
 

patrickbateman

patrickbateman

Joined
Jul 11, 2024
Messages
1,570
NBA

I used to get on some great streaks with the Spurs during their title runs, and even during the Bulls runs in the 90s when I first started betting

It’s impossible nowadays with everyone sitting with little injuries, to rest, etc

Lines adjust big as a result and then some scrub you never heard of goes off and beats you.
Never Believe Again.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
56,088
You mean hockey??

Wags you on the sauce tonight pal??
Yes I corrected it but was thinking soccer too because I see a lot of shady stuff daily live games

NBA is the biggest joke of all sports right now for so many reasons and i used to know that league like the back of my hand and successful at capping it before it turned to trash
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,838
NBA as mentioned no capping involved - you don’t know until 60 minutes before a game who is going to play and a single injury/ejection or even fouls makes a BIG difference.

NCAAM is similar in that these kids routinely underperform. More focused on stats at times than winning much less covering.

Soccer is hardest to win at when playing the 3 way line - tend to stick to totals or draw no bet in the more evenly matched larger matches.

Traditionally NFL has been toughest major sport for US bettors to win at long term. That changed this year with chalk covering week in and week out.

Baseball is profitable for me in general - thanks to a ton of games and being able to make small profits regularly. Stay away from chasing any team over -200 and find a book with low juice and it’s much simpler to win.
 

BigJay

BigJay

Joined
Oct 28, 2021
Messages
14,366
Has anyone said horse racing? Many more outcomes than fav- dog or over- under.
Unless you learn a lot, it is tough.
I’ve always thought ponies so tough long term because of the handle take out

I’ve been more successful last decade or so doing a one-off if I really like a horse in the triple crown races or BC. No way to win long term as one of those folks up at the track trying to bet every race
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
13,793
Horse racing is not a sport really that’s the same as playing blackjack and casino games

The same is true for every sport.

I was explaining to Jerky the other day that once I realized the sportsbook is just another casino game that can be beat, like blackjack, my life was forever changed.

It's an important realization many will never understand.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,838
Has anyone said horse racing? Many more outcomes than fav- dog or over- under.
Unless you learn a lot, it is tough.

The thing with horse racing is it’s parimutual. You will NEVER beat the book long term as the book has a takeout - you are simply outsmarting others and their ability to predict a winner - which is certainly achievable.

When everyone else zigs you’ve got to zag. When you everyone sees a reason why a horse will win - you need to find the one that can beat them - or if nothing else the 2nd best horse by far and take them to place.

Too many in horse racing get caught up in “sure things” and chasing exotics. Got to go low hold bets and learning what tracks/jockeys/trainers seem to do well. It’s not hard if you truly apply yourself - but you’ve got to have a ton of time - deep resources and the skill to do it - which eliminates many.
 
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djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
2,838
Soccer is extremely hard to cap with 3-way lines.
Str is right. Horse (I'd add dog too) racing is also very tough. I don't even attempt it.

Greyhound racing is nothing more than playing numbers.

There is no “handicapping” dogs in my opinion.

Grew up at Wheeling Island - those guys claiming they handicapped greyhound racing had no clue. Every night I’d get a couple of buddies - we’d draw 3 cards and each put in $2 per race - playing our
numbers on a tri box hoping our numbers came in.

Occasionally it worked actually.

Harness racing there are certain slots that are actually more advantageous I think so they win more often.
 
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