Goal Scorer Props

[cmaulsby]

Does anyone have a "somewhat" successful Anytime Goal Scorer system? Been working on this for a month using corsi scores of line combinations per game to find one or two scorers per game. Hitting at about 43%, which is okay since props are nearly all plus-money, but wondering what stats/formulas/methods others use. Not asking for the "secret sauce" but rather a direction to follow.

 

[BMR Genie]

I will link your thread to the Main Forum and hope somebody can chip in with good ideas, Cmaulsby.

 

[phillyflyers]

What sport?

 

[BMR Genie]

What sport?

He posted this in the hockey forum, so guess it's hockey.

 

[jamesy2422]

do you take into account goals scored vs "expected goals from their shots taken"? i have seen some focus on what should have happened as opposed to what actually happened.

 

[cmaulsby]

do you take into account goals scored vs "expected goals from their shots taken"? i have seen some focus on what should have happened as opposed to what actually happened.

Yes, utilizing on-ice shot attempts against per skater, then calculating on a per line basis. Weighting Home team line combos/players at a +2.5% due to Home Team last line change.

 

[rickeyphillips]

Rarely play anytime. I play first. Stay away from Haaland. He’s way out of form. Play at DK. Their lines are very off in a good way. They don’t pay attention when the starting lineup comes out. Seen many times where 1st or 2nd choice is on the bench. Mbappe and Lautaro are the most reliable the last 12 months. I’ve probably hit 15-20 in the last 60 days. It’s difficult, you have to really follow the sport and know who’s in form and who isn’t. I don’t like the value in anytime. Prefer first.

 

[rickeyphillips]

You also need to know who the penalty taker is for every club. A lot of times it’s a defender or a midfielder which comes with a bigger price. So what I’ll do is if a top of table club is playing some filler in 18th-20th place I’ll throw a dart. Bottom of table clubs are awful. Here’s my biggest ones from the past year

 

[rickeyphillips]

 

[rickeyphillips]

 

[rickeyphillips]

.

 

[rickeyphillips]

 

[rickeyphillips]

 

[jamesy2422]

i think he means hockey

 

[cmaulsby]

1/16/2026 NHL Anytime Goal Scorers - Debrincat +120 Aho +160 Guentzel +160 MacKinnon -134 Buchnevich +350 Will back test these after the games.

 

[rickeyphillips]

i think he means hockey

Sh1t I’m so locked into soccer just saw goalscorers

 

[cmaulsby]

1/16/2026 NHL Anytime Goal Scorers - Debrincat +120 Aho +160 Guentzel +160 MacKinnon -134 Buchnevich +350 Will back test these after the games.

1-4 Yesterday. Still havent found "a bug" - specifically Aho and Buchnevich picks as Shots on Goal also missed the mark.

1/17
Tkachuk +160
Svechnikov +225
Pasternak +120
Hyman +120

YTD: -2.8 units

 

[Wagerallsports]

1/17
Tkachuk +160
Svechnikov +225
Pasternak +120
Hyman +120

How did you fare yesterday?

 

[cmaulsby]

How did you fare yesterday?

3-1. Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Hyman scored, Pasternak did not. +4.05 units on the day. +1.25 units YTD.

 

[Wagerallsports]

3-1. Tkachuk/Svechnikov/Hyman scored, Pasternak did not. +4.05 units on the day. +1.25 units YTD.

Nice