THURSDAY Jan 2nd.
4PM
Georgia +1 over Notre Dame. 6 units.
If you're looking for a comparison game - the Boise/Penn State game mirrors this game.
Notre Dame and Boise both have a 6.2 yds per rush average.
Notre Dame vs bowlers has a small total yds per game advantage of 38 yds per game.
Their strength is the run game.
Penn State shut down the Boise run game and Boise lost.
Georgia also has a dominating run defense that allows only 3.8 yds per rush and thats a solid number considering that Georgia played many ranked teams and bowlers with winning reords.
Something that ND didn't face much in regards to ranked teams. Only Indiana #9 and Army#19 are ranked.
Georgia faced #11 Alabama, #16 Ole Miss, #4 Texas (Twice), #7 Tennessee.
Considering the stats from those games, they are much more indicative of the teams true potential.
I can't see ND beating any of those teams.
While Beck is out for Georgia, it may be a good thing.
He struggled often during the season. His ratings fell from the prior two seasons. He was also only hitting at 64% this year while the two prior seasons he was at 72 and 74%.
Stockton is good in completed pass percentage at 78%. He doesn't have much in terms of yards, but he was good in the OT win over Texas 0 who is much better than Notre Dame...
Based on the schedule of opponent competition - I think Notre Dame is here only because they faced weaker teams.
This is another example of team with soft schedules and winning 12 games having been falsely ranked at #3 - because the ranking system is geared for wins - not stats vs quality of opponents.
Believe it or not, ND was out gained by USC in the last week of the regular season and allowed a season high 557 yards!
Last week they beat Indiana at Notre Dame in the weather - but this game is a road game in a Dome. I wouldn't put much emphasis on the win over Indiana last week. Indiana played one ranked team before that - Ohio State.
I based the 6 units on the fact that Georgia is starting a backup QB. Other wise it would be a 10 unit play.
7:30PM
Ole Miss,-17 over Duke. 5 units
One glaring fact is that Duke was a 21 dog to Miami, Florida.
Now they are a 17 point dog to a better team than what Miami was.
Duke is facing Top NFL QB prospect Jaxson Dart for Ole Miss..
Dart will likely be without his top WR in Harris.
Duke is starting a backup QB and a few other players have entered the portal system.
Ole Miss sand-bagged in the last regular season game wining 26-14 with a -26 line against a 2-10 Miss State team.
Since this is a final game for both teams - Im looking for Ole Miss to set some scoring milestones.