Friday July 18-Wed July 31

[G-Man!]

Lets roll!

 

[piratealew]

added:

Houston/Sea UNDER 8-112

 

[piratealew]

Astros is a top play

 

[piratealew]

Didnt get any luck in MLB yesterday, 8-19, lost every game that went to extra's, several late collapses, and close calls. Never had a day quite like that but have had the opposite great days so I guess I was due. On the flip side, I only got lucky in NBA, hit 3-1 top plays again so that covered some of the MLB BS. Time to run it back and get it back and then some.

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Detroit-115
️Astros-133
️Cardinals+120
️Rays TT Over 3.5-110
️Texas-1-110
️Mets-150
️Boston-1-135
️Yanks/Rays Over 8-125
️Braves-145
️Seattle-1-106
️Brewers-108
️Brewers/Cubs Over 8-112
Royals-145
Twins+120
Tampa+153
Dodgers-138
Cards+118 (F5)
Giants/Dodgers Over 8-115
Twins/Philly Over 7.5-125
Mets-0.5-103 (F5)
Detroit-129 (F5)
Boston-0.5-120 (F5)
Braves/Reds Over 7.5-120
Mets/Marlins Over 8-125
Royals/Dbags UNDER 8.5-112

NBA SUMMER League=5-3 yesterday/3-1 top plays
Heat+2.5

 

[inzane]

Shit happens.

Bol today Pirate...

 

[doyleellis11]

I’ve been following since over at the RX a now what 6 months over here a that’s a first ever , sorry , But you will bounce back Even better ! You still the Man ! Thanks for Posting !

 

[G-Man!]

We are on many the same. Lets roll ..
One day doest make a season.

 

[piratealew]

***The first Ump Over is ️Twins/Philly Over 7.5 with Lance Barksdale who rates at 4.29 putting him in the extreme hitter friendly category due to his low strike call and more walls, as this year he is a very low 62.1% strikes and also low 2.08 SO/BB Ratio which is resulting in 12-9 Over and just under 9 runs. I had this game at 8 runs earlier but now could see it reaching 9-10 as both offenses are also doing well with Philly ranking 9th in MLB with a team .763 OPS, avg 4.8 runs per game game in 15 games this month while Minny is 3rd with a .808 OPS, avg 5.21 Runs in July. Runs should be scored this game, it is now a top play.

***1st Umpire UNDER is Detroit/CLE UNDER 7.5-115 with Alex Tosi who is 13-4 UNDER on a very low 7.1 runs thanks to over 64% strikes and a high 3.15 SO/BB Ratio. He rates 4.19 in pitcher friendly cat and its easy to see why as most years are similar. Skubal is one of the most dominant pitchers in MLB as he is a 2-0, 2.08 ERA his last 4 starts, and the under is 5-1 in his starts. Celveland's pitching staff is also dominant, ranked #4 in MLB with a 2.00 ERA. Runs should be limited this game with alex giving the pitchers a bigger K Zone.

 

[piratealew]

️Houston/Oakland Over 8-125

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Braves/Reds Over 7.5 with Nick Mahrley who is 12-6 OVER on just under 10 runs, and a 2.4 SO/BB ratio and 63% strikes. Most year's he's between 8.5-11 runs. The over is 7-3 last 10 for the for the reds, and 6 games between these 2 combining for 13 runs per game.

***2nd Umpire UNDER is LAA/Seattle Under 7.5-120 with Mike Estabrook rated at 4.09 good for 3rd most pitcher friendly ump in the extreme category. This year his games are 11-6 UNDER on over 66% strikes and an insanely high 3.99 SO/BB Ratio. The under is 4-1 last 5 seattle games and also for angels as both teams have 2 of the worst offenses, with seattle at 28th out of 30 with 3.8 runs and LAA at 26 with 4 runs per game.

 

[piratealew]

Thanks to Detroit made out with some last night.

1229-1119 YTD/ (597-563 Top plays) Umpire Overs=126-94 Umpire Under=14-10

All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Phils-144
️Pirates-1-125
️Yanks-149
️Baltimore-1-122
️Brewers+108
️KC+103
️Tampa+140
️Mariners-1-108
️Clev/Det Over 8-115 (Umpire Over)
️Dodgers-135
️Astros-122
️Guardians-130
️Braves-0.5-115 (F5)
️Boston/Colorado Over 10.5-112 (Umpire Over)
Padres+112
Phillies/Twins Over 7.5-115 (Umpire Over)
Braves-1.5-105
Pirates-0.5-125 (F5)
Yankees-0.5-110 (F5)
KC-102 (F5)
Angels/Mariners Over 7-106 (Umpire Over)
Baltimore-0.5-110 (F5)
Rockies+1.5-110
Giants/Dodgers Over 8-120
White Sox+120
PIrates/Cards Over 7.5-115
Pads/Nats Over 9-125
Arizona/KC Over 9-125
Tampa/Toronto Over 8-130
Baltimore/Miami Over 8-115
White Sox/Rangers Over 7.5-105

Will do umpire writeups a bit later, after they finalize the umps list, had a few changes last few days later in the day so want to confirm later in day.

***1st Umpire Over is Clev/Det Over 8 with Dan Bellino (Subject to change)

***2nd Umpire Over is Boston/Colorado Over 10.5 with Clint Vondrak)

***3rd Umpire over is Phillies/Twins Over 7.5 with Will Little

***4th Umpire Over is Angels/Mariners Over 7 with Erich Bacchus

 

[inzane]

Best of luck today Pirate...

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is Clev/Det Over 8 with Dan Bellino who is 9-8 over but on a high 10.28 runs per and 63% strikes and 2.6 SO/BB Ratio. Last few years were smilar with last year 23-13 over on 10 runs.

***2nd Umpire Over is Boston/Colorado Over 10.5 with Clint Vondrak who is 13-7 Over on 10.4 Runs, a 64.4% strike call and 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. Last nights game went over and I see this one too as the pitching isnt the best. Criswell gave up 5 in his last start, and given up at least 4 runs in 3 of his last 4. Blach is a Bullpen guy so dont expect length out of him, in his last 4 outs, he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP. Further he gave up 5 runs in 4 IP in his only start. Last nights game hit 17, and this could easily too.

***3rd Umpire over is Phillies/Twins Over 7.5 with Will Little who is 5-3 Over but a high 10.25 runs on 63% strikes and 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. Most years he's btw 9-10 runs. The last 3 home twins games have gone over, and 5 of their last 9 overall. 4 of the Phillies last 6 have gone over, and like last night, I see this game going well over.

***4th Umpire Over is Angels/Mariners Over 7 with Erich Bacchus who is 9-7 over on over 9 runs per game and 63% strikes with a 2.4 SO/BB Ratio. In the last 30 days, the Angels are avg 3.96 runs while mariners 3.5 runs, and the total has gone over 5 of the last 5 angels road games. I had this game at 8 earlier but added 1 extra.

***5th Umpire Over is Baltimore/Miami Over 8 with Mark Ripperger who is rated 4.25 putting him in the hitter friendly cat. Most years he's between 9-11 runs, this year 9.64 runs, 13-8 Over, on 64% strikes and a 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. The over is 3-1 last 4 for O's 11-6 in July for Marlins. Helping the over is that the O's are 2nd in Scoring at 5 runs per game while Marlins are 29th in runs allowed at 5. I see no reason the O's dont get their avg and a few extra tonight. Both pitchers in this game (as of now Wentz for DET) are not doing great, with Curry being 0-0 and a 4.15 ERA and .367 BAA in one home start while Wentz is 0-1 with a 4.7 ERA, 1.43 WHIP in 15 road games. While Clev is scoring less these days at 3.64 runs the last 25 games, Detroit is scoring 5.12 runs per game in 25 games. I see this game getting to DD again.

 

[piratealew]

More favorable umps tonight that last night

***6th Umpire Over is Pads/Nats Over 9 with Adrian Johnson who is rated 4.29 putting him in the extreme hitter friendly cat as most yrs he avg nearly 10 runs and 62-63% strikes and low 2.0 SO/BB ratio. This yr he's 13-6 Over on 11 runs per game , low 62% strikes and 2.07 SO/BB. The padres offense is top notch as they are top 10 in league in runs, hits, HR, RBI, K's, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Opposing hitters are hitting .325 on Vasquez, while Nats probable pitcher Hertz has a high 5.17 ERA, W/opposing batters hitting .271 on him. The over is 5-0 last 5 vasquez starts, and 8-5 last 13 for nats.

 

[piratealew]

More favorable umps tonight that last night

***6th Umpire Over is Pads/Nats Over 9 with Adrian Johnson who is rated 4.29 putting him in the extreme hitter friendly cat as most yrs he avg nearly 10 runs and 62-63% strikes and low 2.0 SO/BB ratio. This yr he's 13-6 Over on 11 runs per game , low 62% strikes and 2.07 SO/BB. The padres offense is top notch as they are top 10 in league in runs, hits, HR, RBI, K's, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS. Opposing hitters are hitting .325 on Vasquez, while Nats probable pitcher Hertz has a high 5.17 ERA, W/opposing batters hitting .271 on him. The over is 5-0 last 5 vasquez starts, and 8-5 last 13 for nats.

^This one is now a top play.

 

[inzane]

Do you buy off the 1/2 point on some of these totals?

My wagers are so small, (20$+) that I always do, I HATE getting burned by a fuckin' half point and will gladly pay the juice...

Thanks for the insight into your ump totals...

 

[G-Man!]

BOL Today P!

 

[piratealew]

Do you buy off the 1/2 point on some of these totals?

My wagers are so small, (20$+) that I always do, I HATE getting burned by a fuckin' half point and will gladly pay the juice...

Thanks for the insight into your ump totals...

yeah i do on most of them if i get them off the half for -120ish. I hate getting burned by the half too and it happened again several times last few days.

added:
Yankees/Mutts Over 8.5-125

 

[piratealew]

Dodgers-139 (F5)

 

[piratealew]

Dodgers-139 (F5)