Friday Aug16-23 MLB Dingers, Taters, & Gophers

[inzane]

Keep on rollin' Pirate!

Bol today...

 

[piratealew]

thanks man, hope so.

So that idiot at another forum who lost his ASS fading all my picks before, this dummy did it again today after losing his ASS doing it yesterday. Even the ordering of the picks is obvious. Blind fading is not handicapping, and fading a winner is a losing strategy, but we all know these trolls do not actually bet. Too funny watching him get crushed again yesterday----idiot trying again. Losing fake air money and no one would be so stupid to follow that Dodgersboy troll.....Dumbest shit I saw all day.

 

[piratealew]

Knew I forgot one....

️Orioles-144

correct order:
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Brewers-119
️Yankees-1-112
️Pirates-132
️Cubs-1-128
️Phillies+101
️Nationals-116
️Orioles-144
️Tampa-112
️Mets Team Total Over 3
️Nats/Rocks Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-Jordan Baker-15-8 Over/9.5 Runs)
Mets+144
Yankees-0.5-120
Angels+1.5-130
Baltimore/Houston over 7.5-125
Brewers/Cards Over 7.5-115
Yankees/Guardians Over 7.5-125 (Ump Over-Derek Thomas-13-7 Over/10.10 runs/low 62%K/2.2 SO/BB)

Astros Team Total Over 3.5-108
Nats Team Total Over 4
Angels/Jays Over 8.5-120
Phils/Braves UNDER 8.5-115

NFL Preseason=2-1 Last (cashed top play)
Bears ML-115
Colts-6.5
Colts/Bengals Under 35

 

[piratealew]

I have this game getting to the 8 number but with Skenes going runs could be at a premium for reds. Waiting on Umpire info, if its a guy like Fletcher I may go bigger on it, for now its a smaller play. The over has hit 4 of the last 5 games for reds, and 8 of their last 10 road games while the over wasnt as friendly to pirates on the road, the over has cashed in the last 5 straight Pittsburgh home games.

Pitts/Cincy over 7-125

 

[inzane]

I originally took the Nats under 9 that I bet this morning, but after seeing your post and it being an ump over, I bet enough to cancel that play and added a lil' more to the over.

Thanks for saving me some cash...

 

[piratealew]

I originally took the Nats under 9 that I bet this morning, but after seeing your post and it being an ump over, I bet enough to cancel that play and added a lil' more to the over.

Thanks for saving me some cash...

View attachment 40822

Glad to hear it and it worked out as planned!

This pitch was called strike 3 on brewers. They got squeezed in the 9th last night and now again in the 7th and 8th

Def not a hitters ump LOL

 

[sunshine11]

What was on fire? Your picks. Lol

 

[piratealew]

What was on fire? Your picks. Lol

its a well-known saying in business, just means i was really busy with shit going on.

And yeah, my picks were FIRE, just ask those that followed last night on the 12-2 top play run (23-8 all); today's been pretty good so far too. Cant complain about being on fire last night in that regard LOL

 

[piratealew]

All morning Tor was undecided who the opener was so i was waiting to see if i'd go bigger on this and I do like it more now. With Ryan Burr (first start-coming out of pen to start) as opener and Yarborough as long relief, Jays should be able to at least match their average run total of 4 per game, if not exceed it easily and Jays should be able to hit Canning who has a 9 ERA. Yabrorugh hasn't gone more than two innings in any of his first four appearances with Toronto, and only 3 innings once with Dodgers. Jays could be on their 3rd guy from the pen very early, possibly 5th inning. Jays pen already has been worked, 4 IP, 2, and 4 again last night. Like the angels team total a lot more too but just going to hit the game over bigger here. This game should fly past 10 runs like last night and with Jiminez as ump, he wont be a hindrance, he might actually help a bit but not enough to qualify as an umpire call this year. He's 14-11 Over on an avg 9 runs per on 64% K and 2.9 SO/BB ratio so not great, but prob not going to hurt the hitters much here, not like a Estabrook or Rob Drake..

️Angels/Jays Over 8.5 is now a top play (played above)...juice went down 2 cents. -118 for those nitpicky and those that care for some reason

added:

NYM/San Diego Over 7-128

 

[piratealew]

Another good day Thursday, not quite like Wednesday but still a good day. Making those jealous trolls even more mad at every winning day, while they spend hours yappin about winners. too funny, making them chug down their Xanax script every time they read my posts and count the wins. I hear the 2 boyfriend loves Queenietraitorwussy and Luv2eatass are spinning math projects now; another example these fools are basement dwellers. Keep on obsessing over me, wasting your life on a stranger. Hilarious. I just hear the funny snippets people send me and tell me they still spend hours a day thinking of me. How cute, but sorry guys, I am married and dont swing your way.

MLB Wed= 12-9 (6-5 Top plays ) Umpire Overs=54-28 last 11 days

NFL=2-1

MLB =1680-1507 YTD/ (825-747 Top plays) Umpire Overs=189-128 Umpire Under=17-17

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.
️Brewers-119-L
️Yankees-1-112-W
️Pirates-132-W
️Cubs-1-128-W
️Phillies+101-L
️Nationals-116-W
️Orioles-144-L
️Tampa-112-L
️Mets Team Total Over 3-W
️Nats/Rocks Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-Jordan Baker-15-8 Over/9.5 Runs)-W
️Angels/Jays Over 8.5-120-L
Mets+144-W
NYM/San Diego Over 7-128-W
Yankees-0.5-120 (F5)-W
Angels+1.5-130-L
Baltimore/Houston over 7.5-125-L
Brewers/Cards Over 7.5-115-L
Yankees/Guardians Over 7.5-125 (Ump Over-Derek Thomas-13-7 Over/10.10 runs/low 62%K/2.2 SO/BB)-L
Astros Team Total Over 3.5-108-W
Nats Team Total Over 4-W
Pitts/Cincy over 7-125-Push
Phils/Braves UNDER 8.5-115-W

NFL Preseason=2-1 Last (cashed top play)
Bears ML-115-W
Colts-6.5-W
Colts/Bengals Under 35-L

 

[piratealew]

Went ahead over-night and played these CFB games for Saturday. Lets crush it again on Saturdays like 2023...
280-216 (2023 Season)
️FSU/GT Over 55
️SMU-24-115
FSU-10-112

 

[piratealew]

Dumb Faders are finding out HARD that they are going bankrupt trying to fade winners. They went 8-23 Wed and 9-12 yesterday. Dumb trolls, poor luvs2suckass had to stop fading NFL, but we're sure he'll start some other project; that bankrupt ex scammer tout always wants to run his ballwasher on every forum about how great he is when he's nothing special and loses the big games. I'll never forget the UCONN nat'l champ 2 years ago-he lost bad all final 4, then said he he was going against my UCONN and over picks, and told everyone i was on the square side. Well, we all know who won that game, and it went over with an EASY UConn cover. He tried a similar stunt with his boyfriend Johnnyvegas in NBA playoffs with Lakers, Jv creates a thread going against me and lost big time. Gotta laugh at their stupidity and hopefully they're losing all their roll, not just their air money bets.
Now back to winning! I feel another good heater coming on....and time for football!

MLB Thurs= 12-9 (6-5 Top plays ) Umpire Overs=54-28 last 11 days
NFL=2-1
MLB =1680-1507 YTD/ (825-747 Top plays) Umpire Overs=189-128 Umpire Under=17-17

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Guardians-129
️Astros-112
️Yankees-1-135 (F5)
️Cubs-118
️Twins-138
️Reds+105
️Yanks/Rocks Over 8-115
️Braves-1-129 (F5)
️Detroit-140
️Arizona/Boston Over 9.5-110
️Royals-133
️Dodgers-1-130
️Mariners-134
️Toronto-1-131
️Oakland+118
Arizona+115
Mets+125
Yankees Team Total Over 5
Reds+100 (F5)
Royals Team Total Over 4.5-105
Royals/Phils Over 9-115
Astros/Orioles Over 8-128
Braves-1.5-120
Dodgers/Rays Over 8.5-120
Cincy/Shittsburgh Over 8-120
Cubs/Marlin Over 8-115
Braves/Nats Over 7-125
LAA/Toronto Over 8-115
Milwaukee/Oakland UNDER 8-120

NFL Preaseason=2-1 Thurs
️Actionville Jaguars-7
Miami+3
Tampa/Miami UNDER 37.5

NCAAF Sat=280-216 (2023 Season)
️FSU/GT Over 55
️SMU-24-115
FSU-10-112

 

[piratealew]

Was asked on a forum why Guardians---Thoughts on the Guardians? Could be a tough matchup

Here's why:

for me its like this. Eovaldi is 0-3, 7.20 in his last three starts. Bibee is 3-1, 1.98 in his last five starts (Guards 7-3 last 10 bibee starts). Bibee also owns Texas hitters, posting a 1.62 ERA in three starts vs Texas. The guards have consistently scored runs, averaging 4.55 runs and 7.86 hits per game, with a team BA of .238 and an OBP of .308. Clev is also very good in the field, maintaining a +75 run differential, while limiting opponents to an average of 3.95 runs and 7.67 hits per game. The Rangers are BRUTALLY bad in road openers. 3-14 last road openers. I would not rush to the window to back the rangers, in fact, all the reasons above, is why I put my faith in Clev. All the #'s and H2H, with this situation point to a bounceback win for Clev.

 

[piratealew]

I just got a question about the NCAAF Total Saturday...

You don’t think FSU and GT both traveling to Dublin for the game will affect the over 55?


Not in this case. Only if they flew over today or yesterday. They've been there a few days practicing. they are more than adjusted, and these are 20 year old kids. I traveled accoss the globe for work weekly for 15 years, jet lag is a pain but in my 20's, it was nothing, i was adjusted the next day. These kids will have been over there about 4-5 days when game time comes around and already climatized, and ready for the conditions. The 18ish months of preparation helped the team largely limit the effects of jet lag, practicing Thursday and Friday afternoon ahead of Saturday's game.

Obviously traveling over, there are a lot of dynamics that go into making sure we get adjusted, I thought our players did a great job there," FSU head coach Mike Norvell said in a press conference after Friday's practice. "We were able to get out there and practice (Thursday), practice (Friday), guys are looking good. They handled all elements of the travel well.

In order to help combat jet lag, FSU kept all its players up until 9 p.m. on Thursday, allowing them to explore the city a bit. That time also led to the FSU head coach getting quite a few compliments about how well his team has treated the fans who want to meet them.

the bottom statement i found from FSU coach. GT coach echoed similar thoughts, they got there a few days ago as well to prep.

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is ️Arizona/Boston Over 9.5 played above with Nic Lentz who rates at 4.27 in the moderate hitter friendly cat. He may be an odd choice at first glance with a 10-11 O/U and 9 runs per game but he is issuing far more walks and less K's which translates to runs. His SO/BB ratio is a very low 2.07 and a low 62.9% strikes, when his games go over, it's typically 10-14 runs. His last game was also with these Dbags, and it was an 11-1 game, his runs initiated was 2 that game and his avg is 1.5. With the total at 9.5, Nic should aid in issuing more walks and less K's, with the dbacks avg 5.3 runs, and Bello giving up 5.81 runs at home, the dbacks should easily get to their avg, while Boston avgs 5 runs a game, Ariz gives up 4.7. The over is 23-7 for the sox, 19-5 for Ariz. and 9-2 in Nelson's starts and 8-1 in Bello Starts. All things point to the over.

 

[piratealew]

Reds changed pitcher to Buck Farmer from Abbott, same plan, just a slightly different price. Farmer might actually be better than Abbott right now and better in this spot as his splits are good, even though he's not typically a distance guy. These situations often benefit the team making the last min change as hitters prepared for one pitcher, and now they're dealing with Farmer+handful of reds pen earlier. The Reds are 8-3 last 11 road games and are fighting hard for the playoffs. The Pirates are 4-13 last 17 games and 4-10 with Falter starts. I'll stay with the team fighting harder and in better form.

️Reds+110

 

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is Braves/Nats Over 7 (Played above)-w/Adrian Johnson who is 15-7 Over, on a high 11 runs per game and a low 2.06 SO/BB Ratio with 63% strikes. Like Fletcher, this guy squeezes pitchers especially in run scoring situations. I like the over more with AJ behind the plate. The over is 12-3 for the Nats when Gore starts and 5-2 for Braves last 7 when Sale starts.

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire UNDER is Minn/STL UNDER 9 with Rob Drake who comes in at an amazingly tiny 6.83 runs, a whopping 16-7 UNDER as a result due to a near 3 SO/BB ratio, 65% strikes and run scoring stiuations, Drake is notorious for squeezing the hitter and giving the 50/50 calls to the pitcher. I could stop right there but the situation points to the U, with the cards struggling to piece together runs, scoring a low 4.1 runs per, good for 24th, and while Twins have a formidable 1-9 they have only scored more than 5 runs once in the last 9. Festa has dominated in August posting arespectable 2.83 ERA his last 2, along with TwIns are 4-0 unders this week, cards 6-3 under, so runs scoring chances should be scarce tonight. Drake should help these pitchers look better than their ERA is currently.

 

[piratealew]

️Tampa/LA Dodgers Over 8-120

 

[piratealew]

Nice to wake up to some winners late with Dodgers, over and Mariners. decent ++ day again, despite the astros BS and guardians not showing up.

MLB Wed= 17-12 (8-7 Top plays ) Umpire Overs=55-29 last 11 days

NFL=1-2 (Cash top play-Jaguars)

MLB =1697-1519YTD/ (833-754 Top plays) Umpire Overs=190-129 Umpire Under=18-17

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

️Guardians-129-L
️Astros-112-L
️Yankees-1-135 (F5)-W
️Cubs-118-W
️Twins-138-L
️Reds+105-L
️Yanks/Rocks Over 8-115-L
️Braves-1-129 (F5)-L
️Detroit-140-W
️Arizona/Boston Over 9.5-110 (Umpire Over)-W
️Royals-133-W
️Dodgers-1-130-W
️Mariners-134-W
️Toronto-1-131-Push
️Tampa/LA Dodgers Over 8-120-W
️Oakland+118-L
Arizona+115-W
Mets+125-L
Yankees Team Total Over 5-L
Reds+100 (F5)-W
Royals Team Total Over 4.5-105-W
Royals/Phils Over 9-115-W
Astros/Orioles Over 8-128-W
Braves-1.5-120-L
Cincy/Shittsburgh Over 8-120-W
Cubs/Marlin Over 8-115-W
Braves/Nats Over 7-125 (Umpire Over)-L
LAA/Toronto Over 8-115-W
Minn/STL UNDER 9-120 (Umpire UNDER)-W
Milwaukee/Oakland UNDER 8-120-L

NFL Preaseason=2-1 Thurs
️Actionville Jaguars-7-W
Miami+3-L
Tampa/Miami UNDER 37.5-L

NCAAF Sat=280-216 (2023 Season)
️FSU/GT Over 55
️SMU-24-115
FSU-10-112