Friday Aug16-23 MLB Dingers, Taters, & Gophers

[piratealew]

Great day yesterday hitting the top 2 plays. Lets run it back.

MLB Thurs=11-7 (Cash #1&2 Top play/5-4 Top plays) Umpire Overs=42-19 Last 9 days

MLB =1575-1408 YTD/ (774-702 Top plays) Umpire Overs=175-119 Umpire Under=17-16

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Twins+107
⭐️Dodgers-125
⭐️Arizona+102
⭐️Baltimore-1-143
⭐️Cleveland+100
⭐️Asstros-1-120
⭐️Nats/Phils Over 9-115
⭐️Braves-133
⭐️Padres-1-140
⭐️Phillies-1-135 (F5)
⭐️Dodgers/Cards Over 9-115
⭐️Yankees-1-141
⭐️Royals+125
⭐️Toronto+106 (F5)
⭐️Mariners+118
Marlins Team Total Over 3
Toronto+105 (Full-game)
Padres-134 (F5)
Twins+110 (F5)
Marlins+1.5-105
Yanks/Tigers Over 7.5-120
Dodgers-130 (F5)
Astros Team Total Over 4
Phillies-1.5-120 (Full-game)
Minnesota/Texas Over 8-115
Marlins/Mets Over 8-125
Baltimore Team Total Over 4.5
Toronto Team Total Over 4.5
Royals/Reds Over 9-128
Toronto/Chicago Over 9.5-125
Padres Team Total Over 6
Braves/Angels Over 7.5-125
Mariners/Pirates UNDER 7-115

GL all.

 

[piratealew]

was asked on discord why Seattle, here's my rationale:


[9:42 AM]

Surprised to see you pick Mariners as a top play over the Skenes led Pirates today. Can you elaborate if/when you have time?
Was expecting you to take Skenes today lol. I took the ML last night



For me it's easy, Skenes is great but regressing, look at his last few starts. He is 0-2, 3.51 in his last four starts, and while they are 9-6 in his starts, they have lost his last 4. Gilbert is 1-1 with a .69 ERA last 2 starts and while they are struggling, the pirates are 0-10 last 10 games. thats a terrible 10 game slide, which includes a couple skenes starts in there. Seattle also owns Pittsburgh of late, as they are 5-1 SU against Pittsburgh. This game very well could be decided by bullpens. Seattle has the better pen, currently 12th in bullpen ERA (3.85) and 4th in WHIP (1.20), while Pittsburgh is 24th (4.31) and 25th (1.37).

 

[piratealew]

Was asked why twinks again over Tejas (apparently some big capper chutes is on texas cause of heaney's success with righties).....heres why twinks...Several reasons-both lineups are performing markedly different since ASB with the twins at 7th in MLB with a .765 OPS and averaging 5 runs in the last 25 games while Rangers are 24th in MLB with a .678 OPS averaging 4 runs since ASB. Comparing Pitchers slight edge to richardson who has a 4.8 ERA last 4, Heaney is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts. If it gets to the bullpens, anotther edge to Minny as Texas is 4th from LAST with a 4.63 while Twins have a 3.9 ERA and 13th in MLB

 

[inzane]

Thanks for your posts and insight, bol Pirate...

 

[piratealew]

Thanks for your posts and insight, bol Pirate...

thanks buddy good luck to you too!

***First Umpire Over is ⭐️Nats/Phils Over 9 (Played above) with Mark Ripperger. Already planned on Drekman since yesterday as the crew was announced-he is 17-8 Over on almost 10 runs, same as last year. All things point to an over as Nats are 11-5 over last 16, and 12-4 for Phillies last 16 and in Nola's last 11 starts Over is 8-3. Phillies rank 6th in runs scored at 4.9 runs, while Wash pitching is 26th in runs allowed at 4.8 runs per game. Corbin has a near 10 ERA his last 4 and in 21 appearances against Philly carries a 5 ERA. There should be plenty of runs to go around.

***2nd Umpire Over is Balt/Boston Over 8.5-115 with Ryan Willis who is 11-9 over but avg near 10 runs and has good metrics with a 63%K rate and low 2.34 SO/BB ratio. The over is 20-4 for the Red Sox and 11-4 for Orioles, indicating both teams are scoring runs and giving up runs, and in the standings it bares this out in offense with Baltimore and Boston both avg 5 runs per game and sitting 3rd and 4th in the league respectively.

***3rd Umpire Over is Royals/Reds Over 9-128 (played earlier) with Lance Barksdale who is a very hitter friendly ump with great metrics-16-9 Over, on a very low 2.02 SO/BB Ratio and 62.18% Strikes. When these 2 teams meet, typically lots of runs happen as the last 6 games come in at 10 runs per game, and in last 10 games the over is 8-2 for the royals, with the royals scoring 6 runs per in that span and the reds are 6-4 over, but just scored 19 in a 3 game sweep of rival STL.


***4th Umpire Over is Marlins/Mets Over 8 (played above) with Clint Vondrak who is 14-10 Over but is avg over 10 runs per game. While the Marlins may not be a top tier team, they are avg 4.5 runs last 13 games as are the Mets. The pitching for both teams has been bad since ASB with Miami 19th in MLB with a 4.58 ERA and NY is 14th with a 4.04 ERA. The Over is 7-2 for marlins (5-1 last 6 munoz starts), and 4-0 for the mets.

 

[G-Man!]

BOL today.
we match on Sea. Indians, D-backs,LAD and O's.

Cant buy into Nola. Phil's are 0-5 his last 5 starts.

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire Over is Braves/Angels Over 7.5 (played above) with Charlie Ramos who is 15-10 over on over 10 runs a game, and a low 2.4 SO/BB Ratio to go with a low 63% strike call so he certainly leans hitter. The over is 7-3 for the braves and 8 of the last 11 between these 2 have gone over. Angels rank 27th in runs allowed at 4.9, so the braves should easily be able to surpass their 4.3 run average. Braves pitcher is a rookie who gave up 5 over last 2 starts so he is hittable making the over a good play.

***1st Umpire UNDER is Mariners/Pirates UNDER 7 (Played above) with Dan Merzel, who is 15-9 UNDER, on 8.7 runs but 64.5% strikes and an exceptionally higher than avg 3.15 SO/BB Ratio. Pitching and offenses point to an under here with both pitchers exceptional ERA's with Skenes 2.25 and 0.96 with Gilbert at 2.91 (7th) and 0.87 Whip (1st). Mariners over last 14 days are 24th in wRC+ (93), and 29th in wOBA (.291) while Pirates are 21st in wRC+ (95) and 20th in wOBA (.307). During this span, Seattle leads the MLB in strikeout rates at 30.6%, and Pittsburgh is close behing at 28.1% good for 3rd.

 

[piratealew]

***5th Umpire Over is Braves/Angels Over 7.5 (played above) with Charlie Ramos who is 15-10 over on over 10 runs a game, and a low 2.4 SO/BB Ratio to go with a low 63% strike call so he certainly leans hitter. The over is 7-3 for the braves and 8 of the last 11 between these 2 have gone over. Angels rank 27th in runs allowed at 4.9, so the braves should easily be able to surpass their 4.3 run average. Braves pitcher is a rookie who gave up 5 over last 2 starts so he is hittable making the over a good play.

***1st Umpire UNDER is Mariners/Pirates UNDER 7 (Played above) with Dan Merzel, who is 15-9 UNDER, on 8.7 runs but 64.5% strikes and an exceptionally higher than avg 3.15 SO/BB Ratio. Pitching and offenses point to an under here with both pitchers exceptional ERA's with Skenes 2.25 and 0.96 with Gilbert at 2.91 (7th) and 0.87 Whip (1st). Mariners over last 14 days are 24th in wRC+ (93), and 29th in wOBA (.291) while Pirates are 21st in wRC+ (95) and 20th in wOBA (.307). During this span, Seattle leads the MLB in strikeout rates at 30.6%, and Pittsburgh is close behing at 28.1% good for 3rd.

Braves/Angels Over is a top play

 

[piratealew]

Won the top 2, didnt get much luck with the smaller plays and much else at night 12-20. Back at it today. No time for writeups-football Jamboree for the kids this morning and family stuff....

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Arizona-106
⭐️Cubs-1-103
⭐️Yankees-1-145
⭐️Phillies-1-137
⭐️Royals/Reds Over 9-120 (Umpire Over-Derek Thomas-12-7 Over/10 runs per/62%K/2.2 SO/BB)
⭐️Reds-118
⭐️Cleveland+108
⭐️Orioles-118
⭐️Twins+115
⭐️Braves-0.5-128 (F5)
⭐️Mets-1-120
⭐️Oakland+117
⭐️Astros Team Total Over 5
⭐️Cards/Dodgers Over 8.5-115
⭐️Padres-1.5-121
Seattle-144
Yanks/Tigers Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over-Nestor Ceja-12-7 Over/9.2 Runs Per)
Astros-1.5-110 (F5)
Cardinals+1.5-110
Arizona-110 (F5)
Cardinals Team Total Over 3.5-115
Cleveland+100 (F5)
Braves/Angels Over 7.5-125-Umpire Over-Charlie Ramos-15-11 Over/10 runs per/2.4 SO/BB)
Seattle/Pitts Over 8-115 (Umpire Over-Baker-14-8 Over/~10 Runs per)
Phils/Nats Over 8.5-120
Padres Team Total Over 6
Yanks-0.5-130 (F5)
Mets/Marlins Over 8-125
Braves-1.5-118 (Full-Game)
Minnesota/Texas Over 8-125
Boston/Baltimore Over 8.5-120
Arizona/Tampa Over 7-125
Cleveland/Milwaukee UNDER 8-120

NFL Preseason
⭐️Ravens ML-120
⭐️Bears-5.5
Seattle ML-115
Jags-2.5
Colts ML-120
Browns-3
Commanders+5
Chiefs-7
Giants+3
Jags/Bucs Over 36.5
ATL/Balt Under 36

 

[inzane]

Have fun and good luck!

 

[phantom888]

Actually like Philly-1

Good luck!

 

[piratealew]

Actually like Philly-1

Good luck!

Tough not to like them tonight....

2 more NFL
⭐️Jets ML-118
Dallas Cowgirls+7

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Mets Team Total Over 4.5-105

 

[phantom888]

Tough not to like them tonight....

2 more NFL
⭐️Jets ML-118
Dallas Cowgirls+7

Actually like them better if it wasn’t where you posted them. Lol
Good luck nonetheless!

 

[piratealew]

Gallen didnt have it today, Zona's toast, mets looking great. NFL great already cashed the big one on ravens and Bears. Hope the luck is good tonight.

added:
⭐️Oakland/SF Over 7.5-115

 

[piratealew]

NFL going real good today so far...

Steelers-2.5

 

[piratealew]

Braves should rock Canning and their pen tonight. He's carrying a 6.49 ERA last 6 starts and gave up 4 to the Nats in his last start and 6 to the rockies in a prior start this month. His Home ERA is still not good at 4.56 in 13 starts, and he's given up 10 homers and 32 walks in those games. Atlanta averages 4.48 runs on the road and have scored 5 runs or more in 6 of their last 9. Atlanta should find a way to bust out here tonight.

⭐️Braves Team Total Over 4.5-115

 

[piratealew]

Braves should rock Canning and their pen tonight. He's carrying a 6.49 ERA last 6 starts and gave up 4 to the Nats in his last start and 6 to the rockies in a prior start this month. His Home ERA is still not good at 4.56 in 13 starts, and he's given up 10 homers and 32 walks in those games. Atlanta averages 4.48 runs on the road and have scored 5 runs or more in 6 of their last 9. Atlanta should find a way to bust out here tonight.

⭐️Braves Team Total Over 4.5-115

Easy. Cashed in the 5th.

 

[piratealew]

And cash braves/Angels over in the 5th. think u can cash braves F5.....9-0 braves.

Umpire overs hit 3-1 today

 

[phantom888]

And cash braves/Angels over in the 5th. think u can cash braves F5.....9-0 braves.

Umpire overs hit 3-1 today

Congrats! Too busy today didn’t get in on the action