Friday Aug 9-Friday Aug 16 MLB

[piratealew]

***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Disneyland Angels/TO Blow Jays Over 9 (played^) w/Nestor Ceja who is 12-6 over on 9.3 runs. The over is a whopping 33-10 for the jays and 5-0 in Francis starts. Both pitching staffs stink,both giving up losts of runs as Toronto is 25th w/ a 5.33 ERA and LA is 15th with a 4.08 ERA. Runs should be plenty with the matchup and Nestor helping the hitters.

 

[piratealew]

was asked by @JDS my rationale behind the Dodgers over, here's why:

Re: Dodgers Over. Both Offenses are on a team, Milwaukee is hitting .265 since ASB, and going against Kershaw who gave up 3 in 4 IP against SD. Doyers hitting .250 against Milw this year, and the over is 17-6 in Peralta starts and on a 10-4 run overall. Peralta's ERA goes up to 4.4 when pitching at home, since the ASB he has a 3.6 ERA in 4 starts, while his offense is 5th in the league with a .257 ERA and on LA's side they are hitting .252 this yr ranking 11th, and have scored the 4th most runs, while hitting the 3rd most homers. Their lineup comes alive on the road vs home as they hit .254 away and .238 at home. The over has a real good shot.

 

[piratealew]

^ should say "Offenses on a tear." stupid phone....

 

[JDS]

^ should say "Offenses on a tear." stupid phone....

Thank you for you’re time you are filled with a lot of information, your best trait as a poster.

 

[JDS]

Thank you for you’re time you are filled with a lot of information, your best trait as a poster.

your*

 

[piratealew]

Thank you for you’re time you are filled with a lot of information, your best trait as a poster.

glad to help when i can.

added: Houston Asstros Team Total Over 3.5

 

[piratealew]

glad to help when i can.

added: Houston Asstros Team Total Over 3.5

easy $$$. now hope the over cashes easy and astros hang on

 

[piratealew]

***1st Umpire Over is KC/Minny Over 7.5 (Played above) with Ryan Willis- who is 11-9 over but avg near 10 runs, on a low 63% strikes and very low 2.23 SO/BB ratio-same as last year when he was near 10 runs. His metrics are conducive to more runs with less K's, more walks. In Minny, Singer has posted an eye-boggling 9.15 ERA across 20.2 IP. Over the last 2 years, the Royals have a bad 6.1 ERA and 1.5 WHIP in Minny. Both teams are Top 10 in many key offensive cat-BA, Slug%. The over is 5-1 for the Twins this week and a whopping 12-4 for the royals. All signs lead to a high scoring run game.

Cashed really early before the 5th.....another one cashes easy

 

[jjgold]

Good start here this week

 

[mamawhoiscrying]

Cashed really early before the 5th.....another one cashes easy

Your UMPIRE OVER plays have been incredible. Curious what the alternate run lines profit would have been during this run. For instance tonight's Royals play....alternate 9, 9
5, 10 etc. I'll pay attention more to that this week and report back my findings.

 

[piratealew]

Hit my largest play and POD on Astros easy, then lost the dodgers total by a run and others, giants lose 1-0 in 10th, Pushed Padres and rays over, ended up with a few bucks thanks to Astros but thought it was going to be better. Back to a full schedule of games, which I prefer

MLB Monday= 11-12 (Cash #1 top play) Umpire Overs=40-15 This week

MLB =1533-1370 YTD/ (753-685) Top plays) Umpire Overs=173-115 Umpire Under=17-16

⭐️Reds-125
⭐️Asstros-125
⭐️Cubs+120
⭐️Arizona/Colorado Over 8.5-115 (UMPIRE Over-Bruce Drekman-19-3 Over/12 runs)
⭐️Mets-144
⭐️KC Royals+103
⭐️Padres-1-125
⭐️Brewers+115
⭐️Tigers-106
⭐️Baltimore/Washington Over 9-112
⭐️Toronto-125
⭐️Arizona-1-144
⭐️Red Sox/Rangers Over 9.5-115
⭐️Giants TT Over 3.5
Marlins/Phils Over 8.5-120
Giants+101
Baltimore-1-118
Detroit-115 (F5)
Royals-105 (F5)
Boston-135
Cubs+115 (F5)
Brewers/Dodgers Over 8.5-115
Mets-0.5-108 (F5)
Marlins+1.5-134
White Sux+3-130
Houston Asstros TT Over 4
Brewers TT Over 3.5
Yanks/White Sux over 9-115
Boston TT Over 5
Cubs/Guardians Over 8-120
Giants/Braves Over 7.5-130
Seattle/Detroit Over 7-115
Oakland/NYM UNDER 8.5-115

Just over half the umpire assignments are out, only 1 good one for overs so far (Drekman).

NFL Pre-season=2-0 Saturday
NE Patriots ML-134

 

[inzane]

Good luck today Pirate!

 

[piratealew]

Thank you! GL to you too Correction to the above as Arizona was no action. Colorado changed pitchers

Thank you in advance to all those who tip when they hit.

MLB= 11-10 (Cash #1 top play) Umpire Overs=40-15 This week

MLB =1533-1368 YTD/ (753-684) Top plays) Umpire Overs=173-115 Umpire Under=17-16

⭐️Reds-125
⭐️Asstros-125
⭐️Cubs+120
⭐️Arizona/Colorado Over 8.5-115 (UMPIRE Over-Bruce Drekman-19-3 Over/12 runs)
⭐️Mets-144
⭐️KC Royals+103
⭐️Padres-1-125
⭐️Brewers+115
⭐️Tigers-106
⭐️Baltimore/Washington Over 9-112
⭐️Toronto-125
⭐️Arizona-1-144
⭐️Red Sox/Rangers Over 9.5-115
⭐️Giants TT Over 3.5
Marlins/Phils Over 8.5-120
Giants+101
Baltimore-1-118
Detroit-115 (F5)
Royals-105 (F5)
Boston-135
Cubs+115 (F5)
Brewers/Dodgers Over 8.5-115
Mets-0.5-108 (F5)
Marlins+1.5-134
White Sux+3-130
Houston Asstros TT Over 4
Brewers TT Over 3.5
Yanks/White Sux over 9-115
Boston TT Over 5
Cubs/Guardians Over 8-120
Giants/Braves Over 7.5-130
Seattle/Detroit Over 7-115
Oakland/NYM UNDER 8.5-115

NFL Pre-season=2-0 Saturday
NE Patriots ML-134

 

[piratealew]

⭐️Yanks/White Sux over 9-115 is also a top play

added:
Pirates/Padres Over 7.5-115

 

[piratealew]

Wife's gotta go in to the Dr unexpectedly this afternoon, hopefully wont be there all day/night again. Will try to update umpiretotals before first games start later assuming this doesnt take too long. GL to all regardless.

 

[phantom888]

Thanks for putting your best play in the number 4 slot, mofo …… lol

Hope all is well

 

[piratealew]

Thanks for putting your best play in the number 4 slot, mofo …… lol

Hope all is well

thank you, I had you in mind when I put that one there. All is better now, dodged a bullet.

Out of the 11 announcements and 3 others based on rotational crew movements, only 1 umpire is conducive to runs/over and that's Drekman. Giants crew is remaining but the 4 man crew also isnt great (Bucknor, Iassogna, Beck and Riggs), so unless there's any changes last minute, no more umpire totals. The umpire in the one under I played (Mets) happens to be hitter friendly with more runs and a 11-7 over (Derek Thomas) but I still like the under due to the great pitching on both sides, the bullpen strength and the anemic offenses of both teams in the last 10 days. Under is 6-1 for the A's, and 8-1 for the Mets, indicating this to be a low scoring affair.

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. **Top plays are listed in order of strength.*

⭐️Reds-125
⭐️Asstros-125
⭐️Cubs+120
⭐️Arizona/Colorado Over 8.5-115 (UMPIRE Over-Bruce Drekman-19-3 Over/12 runs)
⭐️Mets-144
⭐️KC Royals+103
⭐️Padres-1-125
⭐️Brewers+115
⭐️Tigers-106
⭐️Baltimore/Washington Over 9-112
⭐️Toronto-125
⭐️Arizona-1-144
⭐️Red Sox/Rangers Over 9.5-115
⭐️Giants TT Over 3.5
⭐️Yanks/White Sux over 9-115

Marlins/Phils Over 8.5-120
Giants+101
Baltimore-1-118
Detroit-115 (F5)
Royals-105 (F5)
Boston-135
Cubs+115 (F5)
Brewers/Dodgers Over 8.5-115
Mets-0.5-108 (F5)
Marlins+1.5-134
White Sux+3-130
Houston Asstros TT Over 4
Brewers TT Over 3.5

Boston TT Over 5

Pirates/Padres Over 7.5-115

Cubs/Guardians Over 8-120
Giants/Braves Over 7.5-130
Seattle/Detroit Over 7-115
Oakland/NYM UNDER 8.5-115

NFL Pre-season=2-0 Saturday
NE Patriots ML-134

 

[piratealew]

Turns out there was a change in Umpires in San Diego.. It was John Libka who is more of under ump this year, he is swapped tonight for an over ump in James Hoye. I added another unit to the bet with Hoye.

***2nd Umpire Over is ⭐️Pirates/Padres Over 7.5-115 with James Hoye who is avg near 10 runs a game on a 12-9 Over record. Since 2020, his games have avg greater than 9 runs. The matchup points to an over as i had this at 8 runs and added 1 with the umpire now a top play, as SD avg 4.8 runs per making them 10th in MLB, and hit for a .266 avg, and in august hitting .280, while pirates avg 4.21 runs making them 21st, but hitting better in august, they are 9-5 over while Padres 11-5 last 2 wks, but 6-3 in King's home starts.

 

[piratealew]

Guess we lucked out with the A's going with a different starter, wondered why some other guy was pitching, stripling scratched.

Playing another over that has a good shot---

⭐️Angels/Toronto Over 8-120

The over is 8-1 last 9 Blow Jays games and 33-11 last 44. Both pitching staffs are the worst in terms of allowing runs, with Toronto allowing 6 more or more in 3 of their last 5 before last night, and 6 of their last 11, while the angels have allowed 4 or more in 7 of their last 10, over the campaign, angels are 27th allowing 4.9, angels 26th allowing 4.8. Jays avg 4.25 runs on the road which is more than at home, so I see this game getting just above their averages and reaching 9-10 runs.

 

[piratealew]

Guess we lucked out with the A's going with a different starter, wondered why some other guy was pitching, stripling scratched.

Playing another over that has a good shot---

⭐️Angels/Toronto Over 8-120

The over is 8-1 last 9 Blow Jays games and 33-11 last 44. Both pitching staffs are the worst in terms of allowing runs, with Toronto allowing 6 more or more in 3 of their last 5 before last night, and 6 of their last 11, while the angels have allowed 4 or more in 7 of their last 10, over the campaign, angels are 27th allowing 4.9, angels 26th allowing 4.8. Jays avg 4.25 runs on the road which is more than at home, so I see this game getting just above their averages and reaching 9-10 runs.

correction--8.5-120, stupid phone.