Free Breeder’s Cup Past Performances and Preview Thread
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rdalert447
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rdalert447
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I’m a sucker for Graham Motion horses during Breeders Cup. Know he has a few entered. Haven’t seen their odds yet.
Besides that, I will be betting a Kelsey Danner entrant as well as a D. Whitworth Beckman entrant. Two up and comers. Want to get in on them before the masses figure out how good they are.
But I think I’ve lost about 60 bets in a row the last two months……so tread accordingly.
Let me know the horses you’re on
May throw a few bucks down if I get a chance. Or at least I’ll follow them
We have a lot of real life stuff planned next couple of days so I may not be able to get anything down even if I want to
rdalert447
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One more thing I try to do during the Breeders Cup is fade the over bet Euros on turf. Leading up to the event, all the experts talk up these Euros like they can’t be beat. The masses follow along and bet them into oblivion.
If one of the ignored American trainers, or even an ignored Euro wins, you should get paid if you bet it correctly.
Of course, the chalk Euros could sweep. But you gotta take stances somewhere.
If one of the ignored American trainers, or even an ignored Euro wins, you should get paid if you bet it correctly.
Of course, the chalk Euros could sweep. But you gotta take stances somewhere.
I remember when I was really into it in the 90s and early to mid 2000s the Euros would dominate turf
They’ve been saying this about horse racing for 30 years
Still seems to do okay
Will never be a top-three sport like it was first half of last century again obviously
The thing to watch is that first of all, yes, the Euros can dominate on the grass. Typically, they are better. But …What to watch for is when the Breeders Cup races are in Ky. , the temps are typically in the 50’s which is perfect Euro weather. Also, grass stops growing right about now and the turf retains more moisture with those lower temps and less direct sun. So typically a big advantage for the Euros on turf in Ky. Or east coast.
But west coast, the temps can adversely affect the Euro horses who are not used to that heat and a dryer surface and that swings the advantage to the US and Canadian horses who are more adapt to it. It can be a big deal. Need to watch the surface, temperature and keep an eye on the Euro horses in the paddock to see if they are washed out. That’s a real problem some years for those European horses.
A real thing to watch for.
You need some new material JJ. I heard that in the late 70’s.
jamesy2422
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Biggest Horse Racing Weekend of the Year. I miss when my Dad would talk about it. I used to be annoyed when he would only focus on that and now I would kill to hear that again from him.
drunkenhorseplayer
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I'm looking at #6 Intricate Spirit (12/1) in the Juvenile Turf Sprint and #1 Intrepido (8/1) in the Juvenile; anything close to their ML prices and I'm on them.
A big "Great job" to Delmar track superintendent who has this track both turf and dirt, fast, firm, and most importantly FAIR. No bias or speed, rail, closers, whatever stuff. Fair. Like it is supposed to be for this event.
It seemed like the best horse won each race.
I say that because when it is deep, as it was prior to the meet, it is a lot easier to make a mistake than it is get it perfect. It's not easy. But this maintenance crew made it look like it is.
Assuming it stays that way and no reason to think it will not, I've glanced, not finished by far, but have a couple of horses you guys should take a long look at.
Don't let me talk you off anything you like including favorite numbers, first one to poop in the post parade, or whatever. Lol.
These are just a few things that caught my eye first time through some of these races. I hope some of it is helpful.
2nd race : It's a 3 yr. old and up sprint. 6F. The 8 horse looks to have the biggest upside. As a 3 yr. old, he sizzled in his last race and won easily. But, he got loose on the lead against maidens. Don't think that lead will be as comfortable today so I will try and beat the favorite.
Also, in allowance races like an "A OTHER THAN" the best 3 yr. old will often win. They run against older horses who have never won an allowance race. They haver had plenty of chances and the talent usually gobbles them up. But... when the condition of " or claiming price 50,000" is also part of the condition, it can open this race up to some pretty salty old dogs.
Several in here who can win but I will try the 1 horse who is 6 for 9 lifetime and has already won this condition 2 years ago. He was 2nd to The Chosen Vron, who would be 2-5 in here so I will probably look there. And hopeful the favorite gets flustered, I will play a 1-3 exacta. Why? Because if you look at the 3's form, he tends to run his best races every other race. 5th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 9th, ? . I'll toss in a 1-3 exacta which should be a decent price and a small 3-1 so if he beats the 1 I don't explode.
I only spent about 5 good minutes on the 3rd race, so I might see something at 2nd look but the 9 horse, Breath Away, is trained by Miguel Clement who is Christopher Clements son. Christopher passed away this summer from a rare type of cancer. He will most assuredly be inducted in to the Hall of Fame , hopefully next year as he is as deserving as just about anyone. He was, in a word, spectacular at what he did. Two of those things he did was train horses, and raise his children. Both HOF worthy achievements. I had the pleasure of meeting him once and was impressed at hello. He was just one of those rare people that just have " it". So that win play will be with both my head and my heart.
4th- A 7/8ths rac e. The rail is always very difficult to win from coming out of a chute. File that away for future thoughts. Why? Because you either have to go hard, sit and most likely get shuffled back, or get lucky. Of course, the best horse typically creates their own luck, but use that down the road, not just in here. Rail posts in chutes are not an advantage. In one turn races, the outside post, known as the " box", is the best post . Why? Because you can control everyone inside you due to the fact that the far turn is coming up and all horses will slide over 3-4 feet on the track towards the inside when they switch leads, whiuch is lead legs to race on. Their bodies slide over to the left side around turns and that takes away racing room for the inside horses. That is why you see horses getting checked just prior to the far turn. Those jocks inside have to either get up in that spot, using their horses prematurely, or take back to avoid the sliding over that the field will be doing. So you have to GO or check back,. Meanwhile, the outside position is controlling everything and making other riders ride according to what the outside pressure is doing. Hope that makes sense.
Anyway... a quick look at this race has me respecting the heck out of the 6 horse Sweet Azteca. She will be the favorite but without a deep dive, she looks real tough. So does the Baffert horse, the 8. All I'm seeing so far is chalk in here.
5th. Only spent a couple minutes here but a couple of thoughts. The Euro horses on turf are almost always better. That said, I will give them all a long look. But in the quick look category, the one horse is tough to get past. Five starts at Delmar, 4 wins and a 2nd. Whew. Going to need to look harder at this race, and will, but my advice is take more than a glance at the Euro horses.
While the 1 horse will need some luck with a tough post, good horses typically can create their own luck.
6th. Have not looked yet. A rule of thumb in here though. Speed always looks real good in this race, but it is brutally tough to go wire to wire here. They will be flying, and that can set it up for a late closer to run in at a nice price. Also, any speed that can get a nice outside spot, and a clean right eye, meaning no outside pressure, can run better than it's form might otherwise suggest. Straight No Chaser did that last year with a perfect outside trip while all the inside horses pushed to keep position and keep a clean right eye( clear of immediate pressure in there face, and right eye.) SNC might get that same just off the lead spot today. Have a friend who owns a piece of him so might just root this one in . I need to look more.
7th. Again, have not gone through the race but as a rule of thumb, this race, fillies and mares going long, is typically very form full, in that, they are pretty consistent. Not to say that a longshot can't win, but if memories serves, favorites have a good record in this race.
8th . Again, have not looked but this is where the Euros excel. The 1 horse is a monster. The 2 horse beat him last year and paid 52.00 doing so. I will look at it but most likely stay with the Euros in here.
9th The Classic. Again, have not handicapped this race yet but... a few things before I have. Fierceness is a monster. No doubt about it. But.. he IS finicky. He does not like to have thing go differntly than he wants them. If yhey do, he seems to losre his concentration for a bit and that can be hard to regain in time to win. So simply put, one of the best in here? Yes. can WIN? Yes. Worth 2-1` or whatever low odds he will be? Probably not in my eyes. It's hard to win this race and 2-1 might be ok if you had a run through the wall type that let's nothing bother them./ But this horse HAS let things bother him, so you are betting on being good enough to win AND not letting circumstances get in the way. Personally , I do not think 2-1 is a fair price to have to deal with all that. Baeza is nice. But first time against olders is a reason for concern. The 3 did great last time but lightly raced. The 4 is the rabbit in here, meaning, Chad Brown is ensuring a fast pace to give Sierra Leone to try to run into late. I will not be very surprised if the 5 , 8 or 9 jump up. They are all solid horses. I will look harder at this race this afternoon but... The horse that is NOT being talked about much is Journalism. 10-1 will make me look hard at him. The jockey change to Jose Ortiz is HUGE. No disrespect to Rispoli but come on, Jose Ortiz is a top 3 rider in the country. When I see 10-1 morning line on this horse, it will have me taking a loooong look in his direction.
10th. Have not looked yet but I see Turf, Appleby, and Buick on grass going long in a grade 1. There might be something else to see, but that gets serious attention from me.
11th Again, have not even looked. I'll say this though. Turf, Aiden O'Brian, Breeders Cup, come on man.
I'll give it an honest look but there has to be a good chance that I'll be ridin in the last race on the turf in a Buick with Aiden O'Brian.
GL everyone Hope this helps.
It seemed like the best horse won each race.
I say that because when it is deep, as it was prior to the meet, it is a lot easier to make a mistake than it is get it perfect. It's not easy. But this maintenance crew made it look like it is.
Assuming it stays that way and no reason to think it will not, I've glanced, not finished by far, but have a couple of horses you guys should take a long look at.
Don't let me talk you off anything you like including favorite numbers, first one to poop in the post parade, or whatever. Lol.
These are just a few things that caught my eye first time through some of these races. I hope some of it is helpful.
2nd race : It's a 3 yr. old and up sprint. 6F. The 8 horse looks to have the biggest upside. As a 3 yr. old, he sizzled in his last race and won easily. But, he got loose on the lead against maidens. Don't think that lead will be as comfortable today so I will try and beat the favorite.
Also, in allowance races like an "A OTHER THAN" the best 3 yr. old will often win. They run against older horses who have never won an allowance race. They haver had plenty of chances and the talent usually gobbles them up. But... when the condition of " or claiming price 50,000" is also part of the condition, it can open this race up to some pretty salty old dogs.
Several in here who can win but I will try the 1 horse who is 6 for 9 lifetime and has already won this condition 2 years ago. He was 2nd to The Chosen Vron, who would be 2-5 in here so I will probably look there. And hopeful the favorite gets flustered, I will play a 1-3 exacta. Why? Because if you look at the 3's form, he tends to run his best races every other race. 5th, 1st, 5th, 2nd, 9th, ? . I'll toss in a 1-3 exacta which should be a decent price and a small 3-1 so if he beats the 1 I don't explode.
I only spent about 5 good minutes on the 3rd race, so I might see something at 2nd look but the 9 horse, Breath Away, is trained by Miguel Clement who is Christopher Clements son. Christopher passed away this summer from a rare type of cancer. He will most assuredly be inducted in to the Hall of Fame , hopefully next year as he is as deserving as just about anyone. He was, in a word, spectacular at what he did. Two of those things he did was train horses, and raise his children. Both HOF worthy achievements. I had the pleasure of meeting him once and was impressed at hello. He was just one of those rare people that just have " it". So that win play will be with both my head and my heart.
4th- A 7/8ths rac e. The rail is always very difficult to win from coming out of a chute. File that away for future thoughts. Why? Because you either have to go hard, sit and most likely get shuffled back, or get lucky. Of course, the best horse typically creates their own luck, but use that down the road, not just in here. Rail posts in chutes are not an advantage. In one turn races, the outside post, known as the " box", is the best post . Why? Because you can control everyone inside you due to the fact that the far turn is coming up and all horses will slide over 3-4 feet on the track towards the inside when they switch leads, whiuch is lead legs to race on. Their bodies slide over to the left side around turns and that takes away racing room for the inside horses. That is why you see horses getting checked just prior to the far turn. Those jocks inside have to either get up in that spot, using their horses prematurely, or take back to avoid the sliding over that the field will be doing. So you have to GO or check back,. Meanwhile, the outside position is controlling everything and making other riders ride according to what the outside pressure is doing. Hope that makes sense.
Anyway... a quick look at this race has me respecting the heck out of the 6 horse Sweet Azteca. She will be the favorite but without a deep dive, she looks real tough. So does the Baffert horse, the 8. All I'm seeing so far is chalk in here.
5th. Only spent a couple minutes here but a couple of thoughts. The Euro horses on turf are almost always better. That said, I will give them all a long look. But in the quick look category, the one horse is tough to get past. Five starts at Delmar, 4 wins and a 2nd. Whew. Going to need to look harder at this race, and will, but my advice is take more than a glance at the Euro horses.
While the 1 horse will need some luck with a tough post, good horses typically can create their own luck.
6th. Have not looked yet. A rule of thumb in here though. Speed always looks real good in this race, but it is brutally tough to go wire to wire here. They will be flying, and that can set it up for a late closer to run in at a nice price. Also, any speed that can get a nice outside spot, and a clean right eye, meaning no outside pressure, can run better than it's form might otherwise suggest. Straight No Chaser did that last year with a perfect outside trip while all the inside horses pushed to keep position and keep a clean right eye( clear of immediate pressure in there face, and right eye.) SNC might get that same just off the lead spot today. Have a friend who owns a piece of him so might just root this one in . I need to look more.
7th. Again, have not gone through the race but as a rule of thumb, this race, fillies and mares going long, is typically very form full, in that, they are pretty consistent. Not to say that a longshot can't win, but if memories serves, favorites have a good record in this race.
8th . Again, have not looked but this is where the Euros excel. The 1 horse is a monster. The 2 horse beat him last year and paid 52.00 doing so. I will look at it but most likely stay with the Euros in here.
9th The Classic. Again, have not handicapped this race yet but... a few things before I have. Fierceness is a monster. No doubt about it. But.. he IS finicky. He does not like to have thing go differntly than he wants them. If yhey do, he seems to losre his concentration for a bit and that can be hard to regain in time to win. So simply put, one of the best in here? Yes. can WIN? Yes. Worth 2-1` or whatever low odds he will be? Probably not in my eyes. It's hard to win this race and 2-1 might be ok if you had a run through the wall type that let's nothing bother them./ But this horse HAS let things bother him, so you are betting on being good enough to win AND not letting circumstances get in the way. Personally , I do not think 2-1 is a fair price to have to deal with all that. Baeza is nice. But first time against olders is a reason for concern. The 3 did great last time but lightly raced. The 4 is the rabbit in here, meaning, Chad Brown is ensuring a fast pace to give Sierra Leone to try to run into late. I will not be very surprised if the 5 , 8 or 9 jump up. They are all solid horses. I will look harder at this race this afternoon but... The horse that is NOT being talked about much is Journalism. 10-1 will make me look hard at him. The jockey change to Jose Ortiz is HUGE. No disrespect to Rispoli but come on, Jose Ortiz is a top 3 rider in the country. When I see 10-1 morning line on this horse, it will have me taking a loooong look in his direction.
10th. Have not looked yet but I see Turf, Appleby, and Buick on grass going long in a grade 1. There might be something else to see, but that gets serious attention from me.
11th Again, have not even looked. I'll say this though. Turf, Aiden O'Brian, Breeders Cup, come on man.
I'll give it an honest look but there has to be a good chance that I'll be ridin in the last race on the turf in a Buick with Aiden O'Brian.
GL everyone Hope this helps.
rdalert447
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