str, i KNEW that you Horse-guys were sharp. I knew there was a trick.
Just my novice observation. So often, the Morning Line looks meaningless. The sharpest Horse-guys seem to know what direction the # is going to move.
I am a Sports-bettor. So, I view it as a Fixed Odds market. The # on my ticket is the price. Parimutuel betting is so foreign to me. I hate betting a Horse at 3/1...only to get back to my seat and see that he's going off at 8/5.
Once you are involved with it Chucky, it becomes a "feel" thing as much as the rules of thumb you use when gauging the public.
The public LOVES speed. The more 1's that are on the form, the more they feel comfortable betting it. Problen is, the only 1 that matters is the last 1 on the chart. All that other stuff is just waiting for the race to start which is usually a bout half way around the final turn. Same with the leading rider. Typically well overbet.
Figures and numbers have brought pace into the mix, as well they should . Pace almost always makes the race. One of many factors.
Gotta be honest, I never look at the morning line. Could care less. Back when I was training, Pimlico had a beat writer doing the ML odds. No disrespect, he was a great guy and I considered him a friend. He was Well known in Baltimore for years. But as a kid who was a gambler from about 14 until I was about 18-19 and THEN became a horse trainer at 21, which I cannot recall anyone ever being when I was there, I was just fine with no assistance from a linesmaker. That said, I really did not care about the prices when I trained. Way to busy with claiming, training, buying, selling, etc. Gambling was on claims and thousands of dollars NOT betting on horses back then.
For the bettor, a good morning line person is great to have. But they are far from all equal in ability. You just gotta know before you bet any real money.
Hope that helps.
The day I decided to become a trainer was July 27, 1974. Seeing her really up close flipped the switch for me. Her eyes Chucky. Made Singletary look like a chump. Never seen anything like it and to that degree of intensity, have not since. Greatest female horse I ever saw.
rosiesgaming.com
