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purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
271
I just mean it's hard to contribute site wide with so many idiots here posting bullshit and trying to create drama. There's just too much.

And when that starts to become the people that work here, then I get real sick of it real quick.

I have to make hard choices, but you know I don't want to stay away from my friends, so that part is hard.

So when I ay there is little at the site, I really mean there is a lot, but there is plenty that's just too negative and fukked up too.

Like I said, hard choices. I still believe it's up to us posters to make BMR what we want, I just don't have it in me to deal with it's current course.

But you know I'm here for Fight Night!!!Fight Night!!! and refuse to miss two weeks in a row, regardless of how busy I am.


just joking. Thanks for your contributions and I hope things improve. I’m assuming the majority here are not seeking serious gambling talk and more of a general discussion forum to share some bets and shoot the shit.

Will advances in AI profiling algos and strict KYC in person bet requirements make it impossible for advantage bettors to thrive without a syndicate?
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,511

just joking. Thanks for your contributions and I hope things improve. I’m assuming the majority here are not seeking serious gambling talk and more of a general discussion forum to share some bets and shoot the shit.

Will advances in AI profiling algos and strict KYC in person bet requirements make it impossible for advantage bettors to thrive without a syndicate?

Not sure they needed AI algos for profiling, unless you mean to identify accounts working together. That would be interesting.

It's a tougher and tougher gig each year it seems, with simply Knowing the Markets not being as easy as it used to be.

But I think the big money events are still ripe for inefficiency, so patience is more important than ever.
 

purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
271
Not sure they needed AI algos for profiling, unless you mean to identify accounts working together. That would be interesting.

It's a tougher and tougher gig each year it seems, with simply Knowing the Markets not being as easy as it used to be.

But I think the big money events are still ripe for inefficiency, so patience is more important than ever.

I was thinking for solo accounts. Looking for patterns in the way users interact with the app, how they swipe, time spent on screens, session data, etc. Are they logging in to place quick bets? Big data models can gain insights from more than just the bet history. Maybe not needed and other traditional key data points are more important predictors for profiling. Not sure how the young books are approaching the problem if there are 3rd party profiling services they buy or its developed in-house.

The efficiency of the lines is another challenge to overcome. I was reflecting about being locked out and not even the line efficiency. Good to hear there’s still opportunity in the big money events. I suppose as long the books can find takers on inefficient lines there will be opportunities for others. We are betting against the other players and not the books.
 
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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,511
. We are betting against the other players and not the books.

Gawd I could write a novel about this.

It's 100% true but it's also true we are fighting the markets, and even the books, as well.

It's a battle all around. I remember a few times in FlyMe mentioning regions, some posts I even deleted. here at BMR I mentioned "alternate probabilites" and that's what is at play now, with March Madness. -----------------------------

There is so much to say about what is happening right now, know way it can all go here. I'm in the middle of some crazy analysis.

I have a lot of screens up. ..------------------------------------------

I'm hitting LIVE markets and that other thread about Arkansas/St John's will give you an idea. This is a muddy moment in the day and I am stuck in the mud with some Michigan bets I may not be able to close. It's a crazy time.

-----------------------------------------
 
Last edited:

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,511
I was thinking for solo accounts. Looking for patterns in the way users interact with the app, how they swipe, time spent on screens, session data, etc. Are they logging in to place quick bets? Big data models can gain insights from more than just the bet history. Maybe not needed and other traditional key data points are more important predictors for profiling. Not sure how the young books are approaching the problem if there are 3rd party profiling services they buy or its developed in-house.

This reality is scary. But I suppose you can always alter behavior so that a book will still work with you. Fake screen time, stuff like that I suppose.

They might try to build a better mouse trap, or a "bettor mousetrap" lol but the mice are pretty savvy.
 

purplegrape

purplegrape

Joined
Apr 27, 2023
Messages
271
We need to get a software engineer on the inside working at the books.

Fascinating post. Good night for AZ yesterday. Still need to go over the old notes from SBR. Wealth of information there. I scraped the whole Fly Me in case it got closed.

I’m in the early stages of a live betting model. Hoping to complete it before my death. Real time streaming of plays into the model using the latest tech.

Mouse traps you might get the cheese that one time but then they got you. Sometimes if a n off market line is too good I’m afraid to bet it.

Thanks for the time during the busy month
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,511
Mouse traps you might get the cheese that one time but then they got you. Sometimes if a n off market line is too good I’m afraid to bet it.

Amen to that.

Constantly looking over my shoulder while managing this money. It's always a cat a mouse game too. It's killing me and my wife just says "pull the trigger" because she knows passing on some of those plays is just a bad idea. She really pushes me too.

Who's wife pushes them to make bets?

Need Michigan to make a move but otherwise I've had a huge day. We will have a good return this trournament as long as I don't fukk it up.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
15,511
I’m in the early stages of a live betting model. Hoping to complete it before my death. Real time streaming of plays into the model using the latest tech.

This is interesting.

Because combining this type of work with my ability to identify those games where the dog will lead and we can own both teams as dogs is a very interesting idea.

I'm determing some value LIVE, but it's not the model we'd like it to be for sure.

Hoping Michigan can cover the +3. Those bitches. Wish I wasn't in this game. I lament in that other thread...lol.
 
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