It doesn't matter if they get **2nd** or **3rd with 4 points**. The latter is just as good 99% of the time, because there will be groups where 3rd place has 2 or 3 points.
Neither team cares if the play Fav A or Fav B in the playoffs. They understand it's a tall order and they're probably one-and-done... But losing the final group match and having to go home NOW, that's what both coaches will want to avoid.
That's what the market thinks, anyway.
P.S. Yellow card line is 2.5 in this game. It's going to be a friendly, for betting purposes.