Early Leans for 7/15

[keenosportsbet]

Im Gonna have some leans tonight I’m just gonna post them in here and keep the thread running!

 

[lemartinsports]

sounds good dude, and woo!! good luck today

 

[lemartinsports]

theres no mlb tonight tho right?

 

[keenosportsbet]

Nope it’s for tomorrows games

 

[JDS]

Nope it’s for tomorrows games

I will be looking forward to your thread with picks & your analytics to your bets …

 

[lemartinsports]

Nope it’s for tomorrows games

I will be looking forward to your thread with picks & your analytics to your bets …

+1 !!!

 

[keenosportsbet]

thanks Im pretty excited to see what I come up with tonight. I’ve been using the analytics to look at last games and they’ve been able to tell a story of why games ended up the way they did so I’m hopeful they will help me moving forward

 

[keenosportsbet]

EARLY LEANS 7/21

I'll be happy to talk about the analytics if necessary but I wanted to get my plays off and then come back to them tomorrow and move forward depending how the lines are moving. Analysis is based off of projected pitchers last 5 games and last 5 offensive games for each team

I like the Rangers to beat the Marlins. I think best bets are Rangers first half +0.5 (-134), or Rangers ML (-104). Both teams have potential to struggle hitting the ball in tomrrows game, but the analytics show that the Rangers are hitting better than the Marlins and their hits go further in terms of scoring points. Rangers can get their hits off but fail to convert them to points (box scores show this) the advanced analytics also show that the Rangers have a better woba (weighted on base average) but they haven't been worthy of many points (box score shows this)

Tarik Skubal (projected Tigers starter, game 1) has the potential to get lit up. His advanced stats show he is susceptible to hits. The As are a below average hitting team but recently have been on the warmer side of hitting (.298 wboa, average = .300) and could hit off of Skubal. His SIERA (Skilled Interactive ERA) is also 4.40 (above 4 is considered poor). One of the many notions of Sera is that that too many walks are bad when you allow too many hits because thats more opportunities to score and the advanced analytics show Skubal has too many walks (12% walk rate, over 7 is considered too much) and allows too many hits that contribute to teams recording more bases/runs (.385 wboa, .314 babip) Because of this I like As Team Total over 3 (-118)

Advanced analytics show that the Giants and Dodgers are neck and neck hottest hitting teams in the MLB in the last five games (along with the Yankees). Rodon (projected starter for Giants) has the advanced statistics to match the Yankees, but for how hot the Giants are analytically, Mitch White (Starter for Dodgers) stats don't carry the same weight. Assuming bats remain hot I think the Giants will keep it a close game. I like the Giants +1.5 or Giants +0.5 First Half


Im going to watch line movement and see how they move in favor of what I saw (Rangers/Marlins is already moving towards Rangers). Also need to see the lineups be finalized. Again happy to talk about the analytics behind my thinking but wanted to keep it short. And I'm sleepy lol

 

[Enikk]

gL tomorrow. Never know how these guys will come back from "vacation" so I will look for live action if anything the rest of this week

 

[Tanko]

Have never looked at betanysports but I’ll check it out! FanDuel just so convenient, There’s a FanDuel casino right by my house lol I bet in person cuz the odds on the app are juiced compared to in person. I’ll actually give betsnysports a look after work

Casino next to house... Damn. I'd have to move or I'd be broke. The convienence of online gambling is bad enough but next door, sheesh. wouldn't be able to stay away.

 

[lemartinsports]

EARLY LEANS 7/21

I'll be happy to talk about the analytics if necessary but I wanted to get my plays off and then come back to them tomorrow and move forward depending how the lines are moving. Analysis is based off of projected pitchers last 5 games and last 5 offensive games for each team

I like the Rangers to beat the Marlins. I think best bets are Rangers first half +0.5 (-134), or Rangers ML (-104). Both teams have potential to struggle hitting the ball in tomrrows game, but the analytics show that the Rangers are hitting better than the Marlins and their hits go further in terms of scoring points. Rangers can get their hits off but fail to convert them to points (box scores show this) the advanced analytics also show that the Rangers have a better woba (weighted on base average) but they haven't been worthy of many points (box score shows this)

Tarik Skubal (projected Tigers starter, game 1) has the potential to get lit up. His advanced stats show he is susceptible to hits. The As are a below average hitting team but recently have been on the warmer side of hitting (.298 wboa, average = .300) and could hit off of Skubal. His SIERA (Skilled Interactive ERA) is also 4.40 (above 4 is considered poor). One of the many notions of Sera is that that too many walks are bad when you allow too many hits because thats more opportunities to score and the advanced analytics show Skubal has too many walks (12% walk rate, over 7 is considered too much) and allows too many hits that contribute to teams recording more bases/runs (.385 wboa, .314 babip) Because of this I like As Team Total over 3 (-118)

Advanced analytics show that the Giants and Dodgers are neck and neck hottest hitting teams in the MLB in the last five games (along with the Yankees). Rodon (projected starter for Giants) has the advanced statistics to match the Yankees, but for how hot the Giants are analytically, Mitch White (Starter for Dodgers) stats don't carry the same weight. Assuming bats remain hot I think the Giants will keep it a close game. I like the Giants +1.5 or Giants +0.5 First Half


Im going to watch line movement and see how they move in favor of what I saw (Rangers/Marlins is already moving towards Rangers). Also need to see the lineups be finalized. Again happy to talk about the analytics behind my thinking but wanted to keep it short. And I'm sleepy lol

holy shit, look at this breakdown....now this is impressive work my guy....youre convincing me well on tailing you today. good luck dude!! i want to see you win

do you have a record so far?

 

[keenosportsbet]

UPDATES

Marlins VS Rangers: I saw the official lineups drop and first thing I noticed..No Corey Seager in the line up. I gotta figure out who else is sitting out but that changes all the analytics for the Rangers/Marlins game unfortunately. I'm crunching numbers but I see the lines are shooting towards Marlins now

 

[lemartinsports]

aye thanks for the update

 

[keenosportsbet]

I've come to the conclusion that I still like Rangers +0.5 first half. Corey Seager and Brad Miller are out so to keep it short, Rangers offense will struggle. But the Marlins offense has been tame all season and it doesn't change how I feel about the pitching matchup between Jon Gray (Rangers) VS the Marlins offense. It's just if Marlins pounce on one and score, it will be hard for the Rangers to play catch up. I don't think that'll be the case in the first half.

Le this is my first time analyzing games using these advanced analytics and translating them to picks. Im a big math guy and know numbers tell a story if you can make sense of them correctly so I'm interested in how applying these analytics to picks will play. I'm 1-3 from the other day and will build off of that record going forward

 

[lemartinsports]

I've come to the conclusion that I still like Rangers +0.5 first half. Corey Seager and Brad Miller are out so to keep it short, Rangers offense will struggle. But the Marlins offense has been tame all season and it doesn't change how I feel about the pitching matchup between Jon Gray (Rangers) VS the Marlins offense. It's just if Marlins pounce on one and score, it will be hard for the Rangers to play catch up. I don't think that'll be the case in the first half.

Le this is my first time analyzing games using these advanced analytics and translating them to picks. Im a big math guy and know numbers tell a story if you can make sense of them correctly so I'm interested in how applying these analytics to picks will play. I'm 1-3 from the other day and will build off of that record going forward

love to see it though. the more you work on it the more you perfect your system and you'll be unstoppable. it's a process, but its worth it! keep up the great work dude

 

[keenosportsbet]

Rangers +0.5 First half(-134) 1-0 on the day 2-3 overall

I took Astros +1.5/under 4.5 first 5 and that hit too. Didn't post because it was a riskier play but it came through. Analysis showed Jordan Montgomery being susceptible to hits against a decent hitting team who has trouble converting hits to runs the last 5 games (had injuries/played in and out of the lineup) VS a Christian Javier who has the analytics to keep pace with a strong hitting team like the Yankees. Yankees analytically aren't a great hitting team outside of their big time hitters (Judge and Rizzo are their best hitters) and Javier has been able to tame them in the first half. Not counting this game for/against since I didn't post but thought I'd share.

Remaining plays:

Oakland As team total over 3 Runs
Rangers ML
Giants +1.5 RL

 

[Tanko]

Rangers +0.5 First half(-134) 1-0 on the day 2-3 overall

I took Astros +1.5/under 4.5 first 5 and that hit too.

Great hits.
Where are you buying the alternative lines from? +1.5 F5 RL for Astros had to be expensive.

 

[keenosportsbet]

Great hits.
Where are you buying the alternative lines from? +1.5 F5 RL for Astros had to be expensive.

On Fanduel it was a "performance double" they were pre-parlayed together as one pick if that makes sense. When you took them as separate plays and parlayed them the odds were in the -100s but when you took the pre-parlayed performance double it was given out at +105. Fanduel has some flaws like that just gotta exploit it

 

[keenosportsbet]

Thanks Tanko!!

 

[JDS]

Easy fuckin’ winner stud !!!