Early Leans for 7/15

[keenosportsbet]

1) Marlins vs Phillies

Bets I like within this game...

Marlins ML (-166)
Phillies have been struggling (1-4 last five VS Marlins 3-2 last five) and they start the series facing Sandy Alcantara (9-3, 1.73 ERA) vs Kyle Gibson who is not on the same level as Alcantara. Phillies have struggled to put up hits in their last five games (see Most Hits below) and putting up runs as well (2, 3, 1, 3, 1). Miami hasn't been putting up points in their last five either but the difference is the pitching match up and the Phillies struggles to hit and score the ball.

Most Hits: Marlins (-130)
Phillies have been outhit the last 3 games and last 3/5 games VS their opponents (2, 3, 8, 11,5). Sandy is a pitcher that can go the distance in a game if he needs to (at LEAST 7 innings). Marlins in general aren't the best hitting team in the league but they always play well when Sammy is pitching. Coupled with Phillies recent hitting struggles and the different tiers that the two pitchers are on tell me that Marlins will get more hits

Phillies Team Total under 3 (-118)
Last 5 games they have not faced a pitcher on Sandys level and have only put up at most 3 runs. I don't think they will reach three in this game. Sandy gave up 5 runs to the Mets on June 24 and Mariners May 1 but besides that has not given up more than 3 runs.

I'll edit and add more as I pick and choose but I love the above game BOL!

 

[biggins]

Welcome to the forum l like your presence already. Knowledge is power good luck going forward.

 

[keenosportsbet]

Welcome to the forum l like your presence already. Knowledge is power good luck going forward.

I appreciate it! I find actually explaining my bets with evidence/tangible reasoning forces me to pick better picks VS just betting off or heart or name recognition of teams etc. Thanks!

 

[keenosportsbet]

Game #2

Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays

Orioles ML(+102)

Orioles are winners of ten straight games and have beaten good teams along the way. All streaks must come to an end right? Sure, but I don't think its in tomorrows game

The Rays are starting (still projected) a pitcher who is fresh off the 60 day injury list in Luis Patino. He's only thrown one game this year (lasted an inning) so there isn't much to show for him. Last year he posted a 4.31 ERA. Rays are winners are 4 straight, sweeping the (injured) Redsox.

Tyler Wells, the pitcher for the Rays, is a stud. His ERA is 3.28 but his recent play has been better than his ERA. Last five games has given up 3,1,1,0,1 runs respectively against good competition. Both teams have been hitting the ball well this year but the Rays pitcher is a mystery.

Some would say Orioles are at a disadvantage because they don’t know how Patino pitches but I think the Orioles are the worst team for Patino to have his first game back against. They are red hot and I expect the streak to continue

 

[biggins]

Tyler Wells (40%) is coming off a rare rough outing against the Angels while the Rays are heading into their weekend set on a high note after winning their early week series against the Red Sox. Even so, Wells in in play against a lineup with the sixth lowest wOBA and sixth highest strikeout rate facing righthanders.

 

[keenosportsbet]

Had to look up what wOBA was (still learning Baseball) I will be using that in the future to evaluate offense against pitchers. What I got from what you were saying is that its a favorable matchup from Tyler Wells (which I think it is). I'm more betting on Patino underperforming in his first start VS a hot team

 

[biggins]

Think it means whip/on base percentage. Not my writing lol

https://forum.bookmakersreview.com/threads/what-you-need-to-know-for-fridays-mlb-games.34140/

 

[keenosportsbet]

Update to game #1

Sammy Alcantara to record a Win (+120)
I'm not sure what the odds are now but I took it at+120 yesterday. Alcantara usually gets 6+ innings each game and I have Marlins winning so why not throw him the dub too? Makes sense to me!

 

[lemartinsports]

ok ok i'm really diggin these breakdowns keeno....keep up the great work and good luck today. can't wait to see how you finish the day

 

[Enikk]

Love the write-ups. I know Baltimore players might be happy to see the all-star break but fans and management won't be. What a fun ride. gL!!

 

[keenosportsbet]

Thank you everyone! I'm hopeful for a dub today

Struggling to identify any other clear cut games that I like today. I'm leaning Mariners but the lines are moving against them. I still like Robbie Ray (0.8 ERA average over last 5) VS a Rangers team playing a "bullpen game" today

Are there any baseball heads in here? I would love to chop it up. I imagine there are key indicators statistically or nuance wise to look for when picking teams, thats something I lack due to my experience with baseball

 

[Bubbles]

welcome aboard keen.

 

[Tanko]

Good luck Keeno.
I like the write-ups.

 

[BobbyFK]

I always enjoy reading insights into these games. Good luck and welcome to BMR!

 

[lemartinsports]

Thank you everyone! I'm hopeful for a dub today

Struggling to identify any other clear cut games that I like today. I'm leaning Mariners but the lines are moving against them. I still like Robbie Ray (0.8 ERA average over last 5) VS a Rangers team playing a "bullpen game" today

Are there any baseball heads in here? I would love to chop it up. I imagine there are key indicators statistically or nuance wise to look for when picking teams, thats something I lack due to my experience with baseball

Hit my man up @livinglegacy20 and @Tanko !! They’re some of the best cappers in mlb, i think you guys will hit it off

 

[livinglegacy20]

Hit my man up @livinglegacy20 and @Tanko !! They’re some of the best cappers in mlb, i think you guys will hit it off

Yup we already in talks some collab plays coming

 

[lemartinsports]

love to see it

 

[keenosportsbet]

Thanks for the hospitality everyone!!! I'm excited to be here lets get a bag today!

 

[biggins]

1) Marlins vs Phillies

Bets I like within this game...

Marlins ML (-166)
Phillies have been struggling (1-4 last five VS Marlins 3-2 last five) and they start the series facing Sandy Alcantara (9-3, 1.73 ERA) vs Kyle Gibson who is not on the same level as Alcantara. Phillies have struggled to put up hits in their last five games (see Most Hits below) and putting up runs as well (2, 3, 1, 3, 1). Miami hasn't been putting up points in their last five either but the difference is the pitching match up and the Phillies struggles to hit and score the ball.

Most Hits: Marlins (-130)
Phillies have been outhit the last 3 games and last 3/5 games VS their opponents (2, 3, 8, 11,5). Sandy is a pitcher that can go the distance in a game if he needs to (at LEAST 7 innings). Marlins in general aren't the best hitting team in the league but they always play well when Sammy is pitching. Coupled with Phillies recent hitting struggles and the different tiers that the two pitchers are on tell me that Marlins will get more hits

Phillies Team Total under 3 (-118)
Last 5 games they have not faced a pitcher on Sandys level and have only put up at most 3 runs. I don't think they will reach three in this game. Sandy gave up 5 runs to the Mets on June 24 and Mariners May 1 but besides that has not given up more than 3 runs.

I'll edit and add more as I pick and choose but I love the above game BOL!

First pitch minutes away let’s get em buddy

 

[carolinakid]

Let me Welcome you to a great group of posters here, thanks for the info and bol always going forward