I like the New Mexico play.
New Mexico's only two losses cold hvae easily been wins. They lost each in the last 2-3 min of the game. They could easily be 20-0.
Nevada is good at home but, when playing good teams at home, they either lose or barely win. The last home game, when they beat a good Utah St team, they were actually losing with 9 min left and then went on a tear and outscored Utah St 19-0 over the next 7 minutes for the easy win. I don't think we can count on those type of runs repeating.
I'm adding New Mexico +3.5 to my card.