New Mexico St beat the hell out of Auburn 2 weeks ago at Auburn. Auburn lost to Bama on a miracle 4th down play for a TD that should never have happened. Using your logic, New Mexico St should be in the CFP if Bama beat Georgia.
I know. I'm really hestitant on Arkansas due to their recent games but as JRgum mentioned, sometimes teams really step up against good competition at home.
I know Arkansas is coming off back to back losses to Memphis and UNC and didn't look that good especially against UNC but this game is at Bud Walton Arena where they play better. I consider their home court advantage to be one of the best in college hoops so I went with them to at least cover this game even though I do think Duke has the better team.