Could crowdsourcing sport predictions be more accurate than expert predictions?

[djbrown227]

My friend and I were debating whether crowdsourcing sport predictions could be more accurate than expert predictions, or at the very least give some edge over the sportsbooks and improve ROI. I am wondering what are you opinions on the wisdom of the crowd when it comes to predicting sports outcomes?

 

[turbobets]

Yes and we all influence the sports betting market when we bet. This is a major reason why it's almost impossible to beat the consensus closing line.

 

[Tuesday]

For prediction of who will win or lose I'd say no...that would just be betting with the crowd or with popular consensus and that's already been tested to be no more accurate than coin flipping...but as influence the betting market is something else altogether...

 

[Tanko]

This theory is posible but I think you would need a tremendous population pool to get accurate/improved information. Even then, I'm not sure you'll get the edge vs the closing line you are looking for.

 

[MinnesotaFats]

I'd think you'd fade the public....isn't that how they get to build big casinos?

 

[BMR Genie]

Welcome to BMR Forum, djbrown227!

 

[Bubbles]

i have few luck in fading the public.

 

[lemartinsports]

My friend and I were debating whether crowdsourcing sport predictions could be more accurate than expert predictions, or at the very least give some edge over the sportsbooks and improve ROI. I am wondering what are you opinions on the wisdom of the crowd when it comes to predicting sports outcomes?

i would say yes the public has an influence on the betting aspect of sports, but i would also think the public would tend to be biased towards their favorite team

 

[elihu.feustel]

If you exclude 98%, and crowd-source just the sharpest 2%, that collective opinion can savage markets.