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College Football Picks for Week 12: Anticipate Abundance of Points in Athens
We are on a 20-7 All-Sports run after a 1-1 split on Wednesday, including a 9-3 College Football run after going 2-1 again in Week 11. We now return with three more NCAAF plays for Week 12, highlighted by #10 Texas visiting #5 Georgia in prime time on ABC.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Saturday, November 15th – 3:30pm ET
In a game where we think the talent level of these teams is much closer than the disparity in their records, we are taking the points with Texas State when they visit Southern Miss on Saturday
If Not for Bad Luck…
Many felt before this season that this Week 12 matchup could possibly be for the Sun Belt Conference championship. Instead, Texas State comes in winless in league play at 0-5 and just 3-6 overall. However, they are one of the unluckiest teams in the country, as they were clearly outplayed in only one of those conference losses.
Looking at the other four defeats, the Bobcats had at least 521 total yards every time, winning the yardage battle in three of them by over 100 yards and by 92 yards in the other one. Two of the losses came in overtime (one double OT), another was by one point due to a missed PAT, and the other was by three points in a game where they had three missed two-point conversions!
As you might expect with that resume, Texas State ranks 11th in the country in total offense with nice balance, ranking 14th in rushing yards and 30th in passing. They also rank 20th in yards per play overall at 6.7. The issue has been the defense ranking 114th in yards allowed, but even given that, that have had a chance to win late in four of their five Sun Belt games and outgained those four opponents by a combined 2,181-1,706, a difference of 475 yards.
Yet to Face Winning Sun Belt Team
Meanwhile, Southern Miss is at the opposite end of the spectrum at a perfect 5-0 inside the conference and 7-2 overall. However, as things have shaken out, the Golden Eagles will go this entire season without facing a Sun Belt team that had a winning overall record when the teams met. That is because the final two games after this one are vs. teams that are currently 3-6 and 2-7 respectively.
Yet, the Eagles rank noticeably lower in total offense at 51st, and while they have the better total defense statistically, it has not exactly been lights-out, ranking 90th. And looking at their five conference wins only, they outgained their five opponents by a total of just 165 total yards. Furthermore, Southern Miss also benefited from a turnover margin of +12 in the five conference games.
In summary, Southern Miss is 5-0 inside the Sun Belt without facing a winning team while barely outgaining those foes and getting lucky with turnovers. Meanwhile, Texas State is 0-5 in conference with four losses either by three points or less or in overtime while facing a better schedule. We are looking for some correction and betting on the Bobcats as underdogs.
THE PICK
Texas State +3 +100 at Bet105
Central Florida Knights vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, November 15th – 3:30pm ET
This is a huge letdown spot for Texas Tech after a dismantling of BYU last week and their quarterback Behren Morton is playing through a hairline fracture in his fibula. We are betting on UCF catching more than three touchdowns in this spot.
Pass-Heavy Offense with Hobbled Leader
Texas Tech is rolling along at 9-1 after smashing previously unbeaten BYU 29-7 last Saturday. The Red Raiders rank fourth in the country in scoring at 42.3 points per game, with Morton completing 65.5% of his passes while averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt, with 16 touchdown passes vs. four interceptions.
However, the Raiders’ defense was the biggest story of the huge win last week, as Morton was clearly hobbled while completing just 17-of-32 passes for a relatively low 219 yards, averaging a sub-par 6.8 yards per attempt. The latest word is that Morton will play this week even after being limited while wearing a walking boot during practice this week.
Still, we’d expect Tech to be very careful with him by being a bit more run-heavy this week and even maybe pulling him early if they get a lead. If that happens, they would probably be resorting to their third string quarterback with Morton’s backup Will Hammond also injured. Add the natural letdown factor after last week and facing a very good defense here and we do not see the Red Raiders approaching their scoring average in this spot.
UCF Has the Defense to Cover
Speaking of the UCF defense, that unit ranks 21st in yards allowed this season at only 321.7 per game with the biggest strength being the pass defense. The Knights are allowing only 168.2 yards per contest through the air to rank 13th nationally while yielding just 6.2 yards per attempt. The only weakness UCF had had on defense has been defending mobile quarterbacks, which is obviously not a concern in this game.
Now, the reason that the Knights have a losing 4-5 record is they have gotten poor quarterback play since losing starter Cam Fancher to a rib injury, and it is still unclear who will start under center in this game. We do not think it matters much though as all their healthy QBs are relatively equal (i.e., bad), so they will lean on their running game in any event. And that unit has been commendable while ranking 33rd in the nation with 186.3 rushing yards per game.
The best news for the Central Florida offense here is that with Texas Tech “only” expected to score on the 30s given Morton’s health and the letdown factor, the Knights may not need to do too much offensively to cover the massive spread. Take the bounty of points with UCF on Saturday.
THE PICK
Central Florida +24 -114 at Bet105
Texas Longhorns vs Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 15th – 7:30pm ET
We think that the posted total looks a tad short in Athens on Saturday night for the marquee battle with Texas visiting Georgia. Thus, we are backing the Over in this spot.
Arch Manning Finally Living Up to the Hype
We are on the record with our belief that Arch Manning is overrated, but giving credit where credit is due, it seems the light bulb has gone off as he has finally lived up to the hype over the last two games. First, he passed for 346 yards and three touchdowns while leading a huge comeback at Mississippi State. Then, he passed for 328 yards and another three touchdowns in a wire-to-wire win vs. Vanderbilt two weeks ago.
This brings Texas to 7-2 for the season, and Manning’s improvement led to 45 and 34 points respectively in those last two wins after the offense looked so stagnant while Arch was struggling earlier in the year. So, can he keep his sudden resurrection going in hostile territory at Sanford Stadium?
We belief the answer is a resounding yes! After all, he is not facing one of the vintage Georgia defenses of recent seasons here. This year’s unit ranks 63rd in raw passing defense, but it grades out much worse metrically. The Bulldogs rank a dismal 128th in Pressure per PFF, as well as 83rdin Coverage. And do not forget about the Longhorns having two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye last week.
Georgia Should Run Well Here
On the flip side, we feel Georgia should also be able to put up points here, but in a totally different manner as their offensive success begins with the run. The Dawgs are averaging 197.2 rushing yards per game, helping lead to 33.4 points per contest. Granted, they struggled in the first half of games all season, but they have been awesome in the second half while always making the necessary adjustments.
Now, we totally get that Texas is second in the land in rushing defense perming just 78.9 yards per game on the ground. But believe it or not, this is a nice rushing matchup schematically for Georgia, which relies heavily on inside zone reads in the running game. As great as the frontline numbers are for the Longhorns rushing defense, their biggest weakness has been defending inside zone reads with just a 42% Success Rate.
Thus, in the end we see paths for both teams to put points on the board, with Texas expected to have success though the air and Georgia on the ground. This has us betting on the Over in prime-time Saturday night.
THE PICK
Over 49.5 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we already have more plays than this and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
We are on a 20-7 All-Sports run after a 1-1 split on Wednesday, including a 9-3 College Football run after going 2-1 again in Week 11. We now return with three more NCAAF plays for Week 12, highlighted by #10 Texas visiting #5 Georgia in prime time on ABC.
Texas State Bobcats vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Saturday, November 15th – 3:30pm ET
In a game where we think the talent level of these teams is much closer than the disparity in their records, we are taking the points with Texas State when they visit Southern Miss on Saturday
If Not for Bad Luck…
Many felt before this season that this Week 12 matchup could possibly be for the Sun Belt Conference championship. Instead, Texas State comes in winless in league play at 0-5 and just 3-6 overall. However, they are one of the unluckiest teams in the country, as they were clearly outplayed in only one of those conference losses.
Looking at the other four defeats, the Bobcats had at least 521 total yards every time, winning the yardage battle in three of them by over 100 yards and by 92 yards in the other one. Two of the losses came in overtime (one double OT), another was by one point due to a missed PAT, and the other was by three points in a game where they had three missed two-point conversions!
As you might expect with that resume, Texas State ranks 11th in the country in total offense with nice balance, ranking 14th in rushing yards and 30th in passing. They also rank 20th in yards per play overall at 6.7. The issue has been the defense ranking 114th in yards allowed, but even given that, that have had a chance to win late in four of their five Sun Belt games and outgained those four opponents by a combined 2,181-1,706, a difference of 475 yards.
Yet to Face Winning Sun Belt Team
Meanwhile, Southern Miss is at the opposite end of the spectrum at a perfect 5-0 inside the conference and 7-2 overall. However, as things have shaken out, the Golden Eagles will go this entire season without facing a Sun Belt team that had a winning overall record when the teams met. That is because the final two games after this one are vs. teams that are currently 3-6 and 2-7 respectively.
Yet, the Eagles rank noticeably lower in total offense at 51st, and while they have the better total defense statistically, it has not exactly been lights-out, ranking 90th. And looking at their five conference wins only, they outgained their five opponents by a total of just 165 total yards. Furthermore, Southern Miss also benefited from a turnover margin of +12 in the five conference games.
In summary, Southern Miss is 5-0 inside the Sun Belt without facing a winning team while barely outgaining those foes and getting lucky with turnovers. Meanwhile, Texas State is 0-5 in conference with four losses either by three points or less or in overtime while facing a better schedule. We are looking for some correction and betting on the Bobcats as underdogs.
THE PICK
Texas State +3 +100 at Bet105
Central Florida Knights vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
Saturday, November 15th – 3:30pm ET
This is a huge letdown spot for Texas Tech after a dismantling of BYU last week and their quarterback Behren Morton is playing through a hairline fracture in his fibula. We are betting on UCF catching more than three touchdowns in this spot.
Pass-Heavy Offense with Hobbled Leader
Texas Tech is rolling along at 9-1 after smashing previously unbeaten BYU 29-7 last Saturday. The Red Raiders rank fourth in the country in scoring at 42.3 points per game, with Morton completing 65.5% of his passes while averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt, with 16 touchdown passes vs. four interceptions.
However, the Raiders’ defense was the biggest story of the huge win last week, as Morton was clearly hobbled while completing just 17-of-32 passes for a relatively low 219 yards, averaging a sub-par 6.8 yards per attempt. The latest word is that Morton will play this week even after being limited while wearing a walking boot during practice this week.
Still, we’d expect Tech to be very careful with him by being a bit more run-heavy this week and even maybe pulling him early if they get a lead. If that happens, they would probably be resorting to their third string quarterback with Morton’s backup Will Hammond also injured. Add the natural letdown factor after last week and facing a very good defense here and we do not see the Red Raiders approaching their scoring average in this spot.
UCF Has the Defense to Cover
Speaking of the UCF defense, that unit ranks 21st in yards allowed this season at only 321.7 per game with the biggest strength being the pass defense. The Knights are allowing only 168.2 yards per contest through the air to rank 13th nationally while yielding just 6.2 yards per attempt. The only weakness UCF had had on defense has been defending mobile quarterbacks, which is obviously not a concern in this game.
Now, the reason that the Knights have a losing 4-5 record is they have gotten poor quarterback play since losing starter Cam Fancher to a rib injury, and it is still unclear who will start under center in this game. We do not think it matters much though as all their healthy QBs are relatively equal (i.e., bad), so they will lean on their running game in any event. And that unit has been commendable while ranking 33rd in the nation with 186.3 rushing yards per game.
The best news for the Central Florida offense here is that with Texas Tech “only” expected to score on the 30s given Morton’s health and the letdown factor, the Knights may not need to do too much offensively to cover the massive spread. Take the bounty of points with UCF on Saturday.
THE PICK
Central Florida +24 -114 at Bet105
Texas Longhorns vs Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 15th – 7:30pm ET
We think that the posted total looks a tad short in Athens on Saturday night for the marquee battle with Texas visiting Georgia. Thus, we are backing the Over in this spot.
Arch Manning Finally Living Up to the Hype
We are on the record with our belief that Arch Manning is overrated, but giving credit where credit is due, it seems the light bulb has gone off as he has finally lived up to the hype over the last two games. First, he passed for 346 yards and three touchdowns while leading a huge comeback at Mississippi State. Then, he passed for 328 yards and another three touchdowns in a wire-to-wire win vs. Vanderbilt two weeks ago.
This brings Texas to 7-2 for the season, and Manning’s improvement led to 45 and 34 points respectively in those last two wins after the offense looked so stagnant while Arch was struggling earlier in the year. So, can he keep his sudden resurrection going in hostile territory at Sanford Stadium?
We belief the answer is a resounding yes! After all, he is not facing one of the vintage Georgia defenses of recent seasons here. This year’s unit ranks 63rd in raw passing defense, but it grades out much worse metrically. The Bulldogs rank a dismal 128th in Pressure per PFF, as well as 83rdin Coverage. And do not forget about the Longhorns having two weeks to prepare for this game after a bye last week.
Georgia Should Run Well Here
On the flip side, we feel Georgia should also be able to put up points here, but in a totally different manner as their offensive success begins with the run. The Dawgs are averaging 197.2 rushing yards per game, helping lead to 33.4 points per contest. Granted, they struggled in the first half of games all season, but they have been awesome in the second half while always making the necessary adjustments.
Now, we totally get that Texas is second in the land in rushing defense perming just 78.9 yards per game on the ground. But believe it or not, this is a nice rushing matchup schematically for Georgia, which relies heavily on inside zone reads in the running game. As great as the frontline numbers are for the Longhorns rushing defense, their biggest weakness has been defending inside zone reads with just a 42% Success Rate.
Thus, in the end we see paths for both teams to put points on the board, with Texas expected to have success though the air and Georgia on the ground. This has us betting on the Over in prime-time Saturday night.
THE PICK
Over 49.5 -108 at Heritage
Remember that we already have more plays than this and will almost certainly be adding more, so make sure to keep checking the NCAAF Picks thread for additions.
