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[pete0]

undecided.

@KVB @krit heres an example.

Pinny showing -2 (-115) , but BM/Betcris showing disagreement +2(-115)

What do u guys make of this ?

 

[carolinakid]

07/24/23 09:21:19 AM Pacific

NFL: Game 101-102

TEAM QB DEPTH CHARTS (NOT ALWAYS PLAYING ORDER) NEW YORK JETS QB1 A. RODGERS QB2 Z. WILSON QB3 T. BOYLE QB4 C. STREVELER CLEVELAND BROWNS QB1 D. WATSON QB2 J. DOBBS QB3 K. MOND QB4 D. THOMPSON-ROBINSON

 

[KVB]

undecided.

@KVB @krit heres an example.

Pinny showing -2 (-115) , but BM/Betcris showing disagreement +2(-115)

What do u guys make of this ?

Not sure I'd jump to calling this a disagreement just yet.

BM tends to mess with prices slightly like this in order to manipulate, ever so slightly, action and perception. Lakerboy and I have noticed this over time as sometimes we text each other.

In the end, we are seeing "small" 5k bets coming in, in what is a fairly high volume event, and that can also lead to slight price changes.

It's something to monitor. Could one book be thinking ahead, or is just reaction to a recent hit on a side? These are subtle trading numbers that can be hard to decipher.

It's not always cut a dried, (or cut and dry, or whatever) as a slightly price on one side can serve two different purposes. One can be to discourage action on that side and the other can be to take the action and just be charging for it.

When a book start jacking that price on Yankees, because we know Joe Blow doesn't care what he pays, that book isn't exaclty trying to discourage the action on that side, they are more likely trying to just short the bettors on the action they are getting.

Knowing the markets, with experience watching these things helps to decide what you think might be happening.

In the end, it can be a judgement call but know that books far off the big guys, like pinny, can give EV.

For this situation it really is a small difference we're looking at and the market is basically revolving around a 2 point -110/-110 line.

From here it's the movement that is important and pinny is, as I type, moving that price a little. Perhaps this line will come off of the 2, to 1.5 and Pinny is leading that charge...perhaps.

More can be told from movement than where the line sits. That said, sometimes movement can be fake, and manipulative, at these small stages.

The more you watch these houses, and what they do, the more you can get a feel. Remember, I also mention making your own ratings and some capping to get an idea where these teams should be.

 

[Wagerallsports]

2Team-7pt Teaser

Browns & Under?

Heritage

 

[KVB]

I was initially going to suggest that these books were taking some plays on the favorite and dealing with it in different ways, but with moves as I was typing, we might some pressure on the underdog here, at 2.

Maybe 1.5 is the real line here with bets coming in on Jets 11 and -1.5 while Cleveland bettors come in at +2.

Further, we can't discount the fact that the spread is mathematically tied to that moneyline and pressure on the moneyline itself can move that spread number.

So the moneylines are also good to watch across the markets, especially with such a low line. Often you see underdog bettors taking the upset while favorite bettors chose to take a little less price for that extra 1.5 points.

 

[carolinakid]

jets ml here

 

[KVB]

@pete0 since teasers have come up that is another thing to look at. Perhaps less with preseason but that original pointspread can often get stuck on an number while the price moves as the book is protecting from the teaser.

We call it "teaser protection lines" and 5dimes was notorious for it, along with others.

 

[KVB]

Starting to look a bit like Pinny was taking some money on the cleveland moneyline this last hour.

That might be affecting that spread price directly.

 

[JDS]

Starting to look a bit like Pinny was taking some money on the cleveland moneyline this last hour.

That might be affecting that spread price directly.

Where are you tracking that KVB ? Is this readily available to the public

 

[KVB]

Where are you tracking that KVB ? Is this readily available to the public

Noticing the market movement on the Pinny moneyline.

They were as high as +128 on Cleveland just over an hour ago.

Now we're looking at +103.

All the while they were slightly changing the price on the spread, but also getting hit there. But the moneyline, while taking a less maximum per bet (2k ml vs 5k spread) was getting hit more times.

 

[JDS]

Noticing the market movement on the Pinny moneyline.

They were as high as +128 on Cleveland just over an hour ago.

Now we're looking at +103.

I understand but from what source ? Are you using BMR odds or something else.

 

[carolinakid]

i see pinny is going uptick on the total

 

[carolinakid]

KVB you have don best too right??, i was wishing they would put pinny back on

 

[KVB]

I understand but from what source ? Are you using BMR odds or something else.

I added a sentence there but any line service show it.

I have an inhouse thing going, but I bet even something like that "spankodds" can be helpful there.

 

[KVB]

KVB you have don best too right??

Yeah, we've been seeing some pretty up to date movement on the game today.

You think that prices up to 34? Market seems to be thinking that way.

 

[Wagerallsports]

i see pinny is going uptick on the total

Yes I think it has climbed everywhere??

 

[carolinakid]

pinny is a pk-136 for the 1st half on the jets

 

[KVB]

That's another thing to look at @pete0

Not just the first half lines, but team totals as well.

Every book has an opinion, especially BOL, and getting the feel for what there opinion is based on first half and team Totals is something to think about.

Many of us check those numbers when looking at the big picture.

 

[JDS]

Starting to look a bit like Pinny was taking some money on the cleveland moneyline this last hour.

That might be affecting that spread price directly.

So from your understanding the money always moves the markets & not really the % of the public bet ? I understand a lot of times when the public bet has the majority of the tickets then the money will also be heavy to one side for movement.

I just need some clarification on this & have you ever talked about RLM in one of your videos. Another term in this industry I don’t quite understand how it is actually implemented with betting numbers.

 

[pete0]

@pete0 since teasers have come up that is another thing to look at. Perhaps less with preseason but that original pointspread can often get stuck on an number while the price moves as the book is protecting from the teaser.

We call it "teaser protection lines" and 5dimes was notorious for it, along with others.

Appreciate all ur input KVB


5dimes did give me PTSD , when they slow payed me a month+ after several times of contacting them. Then stopped playing there, all together.