can someone explain to me why buying points in basketball is a good idea

[KingKolzig]

Saw a guy tease NBA all star total before

 

[jjgold]

Most pros go nowhere near the NBA too random and scores too high

 

[djefferis]

I have 8-10 outs .And found that buying points often on games between2-5 is usually an ok move...especially on games with lower totals

I won’t debate on what works for you - your money/your choices.

I’d be interested to see a statistical chart of where buying points resulted in a higher ROI in those cases. What % of games fall right on the number overall - meaning that a half point either way at an additional 10% would have yielded a 100% increase in winnings ?

Again - I’ve done no analysis myself - but I find it hard to believe the number of games that finish right on the number is higher than 10% - and then you had to have bought the half on the right side. so unless your exceptionally sharp picking the games where this would be to players advantage - as a whole in theory it’s just a bad idea for players (otherwise books wouldn’t allow it).

We can agree though that lower totals obviously increase the value of a half. The lower expected result - the higher the value presented by a half point which represents a higher percentage of the anticipated result. Again - books don’t “vary” the price of buying that half on a game with same a total of 110 in low scoring college games vs say 220 in a low scoring NBA matchup - but again the fact they don’t reps you only they anticipate making money either way - they just expect less takers on the higher totals (or spreads) and will gladly take whatever high profit wagers you wish to give them - just like playing 5-6 team parlays.

 

[Tanko]

I won’t debate on what works for you - your money/your choices.

I’d be interested to see a statistical chart of where buying points resulted in a higher ROI in those cases. What % of games fall right on the number overall - meaning that a half point either way at an additional 10% would have yielded a 100% increase in winnings ?

Again - I’ve done no analysis myself - but I find it hard to believe the number of games that finish right on the number is higher than 10% - and then you had to have bought the half on the right side. so unless your exceptionally sharp picking the games where this would be to players advantage - as a whole in theory it’s just a bad idea for players (otherwise books wouldn’t allow it).

We can agree though that lower totals obviously increase the value of a half. The lower expected result - the higher the value presented by a half point which represents a higher percentage of the anticipated result. Again - books don’t “vary” the price of buying that half on a game with same a total of 110 in low scoring college games vs say 220 in a low scoring NBA matchup - but again the fact they don’t reps you only they anticipate making money either way - they just expect less takers on the higher totals (or spreads) and will gladly take whatever high profit wagers you wish to give them - just like playing 5-6 team parlays.

I'm sure someone has run this analysis. I could do it for the last 5 years of CBB (I have the data in spreads) but let me see if a google search yields something quickly. Maybe I'll ask ChatGPT.

 

[whysguy]

If you play a fav on the money line, you buy points. Its all about probability, vs the line.

Use a odds calculator, to convert the line to % and it might not be as bad as it looks.

-120,-140 looks awful but instead of 52.38 needed for -110 you go to -54.55 for -120 and 58.33 for -140. This is why 3 in football costs more. To increase your chance of not losing is another way to look at it. Like for the 7 in nhl, I believe 7 lands 21ish % on a 6.5 total, it wont be cheap to increase your chances of not losing by .5 goals for an under.

so then then it comes down to was it worth it. Like someone else said you could also be really good to be worth it, the further off the line is, it could be a good deal. Just as the points cost more the more you want.

Im guilty of it, but I make damn sure if I do, its already on the best line out there. So.... everyone else has +4.0 on an nba game and one place has +4.5, I would say there's no way its that bad for +5.0 for -120. I don't have data or proof, but just a habit. Plus if its a play you thought was worth making before it went to +4.0 everywhere. That type of thing.

 

[stormtrooper8]

I won’t debate on what works for you - your money/your choices.

I’d be interested to see a statistical chart of where buying points resulted in a higher ROI in those cases. What % of games fall right on the number overall - meaning that a half point either way at an additional 10% would have yielded a 100% increase in winnings ?

overall it results in a lower ROI

-EV play that you can get away with from time to time, just like any kind of bet

Hence why you should avoid it

 

[djefferis]

Agree with above - but again my opinion is based on my own empirical evidence - if someone can demonstrate it - it could well prove those of us who say no wrong.

As to “gaining” value by line shopping and then buying off the best number - to me - you’re just giving back part of the advantage you gained. Yes - buy adding a half point to +4.5 (to 5) - your getting MORE value than the shop dealing +4 - but your in effect just buying +5 for -120 vs -130 at a shop dealing -4. That’s using my wife’s logic - buying something “on sale” - it’s still only a bargain if you’re getting MORE value for your dollar. If it was “worth” 100 - paying 120 is a better value than 130, but still not a value.

To me - you’re likely to see more value in just playing money lines on games with a spread of 5 or less especially if using reduced juice shops.

 

[KVB]

Unreal this thread.

Just read my earlier post.

It’s like you guys are trying to get EV by buying the point and then blaming buying the points for not getting the EV.

You can’t create something out of nothing. Altering the price by buying a point does not create a mispriced issue.

You must start with the mispriced issue as you would any other time you bet, then work from there.

Please read my first post in this thread.

 

[whysguy]

Another way I look at is is a side bet.....

going from -110 to -120, I wouldn't make the bet at -110 unless i thought it was 55%+
so bottom line

risking an extra $10, what am I getting for that $10, well actually its only 4.50 because I plan on winning 55% on the original line.... if my expectation is 60% then its only $4 side bet!!!! See how the better you pick the less, you are actually paying.

on +4.5 to +5.0 if it hits 27 times out of 100 2.7 % its around break even (4.50 x 27= 121 and get your $120 bet back) .... I checked a line of +4.5 and it lands on 5 50 times out of 962 since 2009 for 5.1%


maybe theres something wrong about this calculation.... but looks worth it on +4.5.

5 is one of the likely margins, not every # is this good, but if it helps your chance to not lose by 2.7% -120 is the deal

Also must be confident in your ability to know this play will hit 55%+ , making the new side bet only 4.50 per $10 extra. Maybe I'm way off, but this is my defense for point buying =)

 

[quantumleap]

It's pretty simple. Think about it. Are the books going to allow you to buy points so that it is now to your advantage??? Of course not.

They have all the recent tables to calculate the price it costs to get a better line. The books will give you worse odds if you do so. For example, going from -3 to -2 1/2 in football is worth so many points, the books will give you a worse juice to buy.