Bradley -2.5 +101

[JDS]

This will only be the third true road test for Drake, the Bull Dogs have lost their last two games outright as favorites and I like to fade a team when the odds flip on a mini decline especially on the road in college basketball. Bradley has won 5 straight and 9 of their last 10 as they are 4-0 in conference play. This line should be -5 or more from my calculations.

Drake plays at a slow pace and I don't like that for them on the road against a much better rebounding team. Also Drake is middle of the pact defending the perimeter as Bradley is leading the nation in efficiency from beyond the arc. I think the line is low because of the last 6 meetings between these two Drake has won 5 covering most of those games. Bradley 8-0 SU at home so I see this as a +EV play here.

Take Bradley -2.5 +101 (I sold a half point for a +EV bet). Good luck if you decide to tail or fade

 

[KVB]

Moved down a point, going with the shift.

This is a close one for me.

(I sold a half point for a +EV bet).

This thinking can be correct, but it's rare and would need an off book.

In the end it's a conversion problem. Mathematically, if the book is going it right, the EV should be the same as you are just moving the number and paying or getting paid for it.

It's like this... 2+2=4

But you want a 3 so you change the equation to 3+1=4.

In the end, it's still 4.

Now, if you can get paid more than the half point is worth (which does come down to opinion), then you might be able to pull...

3+2=5

But usually, the math down the line is just equivalent conversions.

 

[BMR Genie]

Good luck, JDS. This is your first personal sports pick of the year, right?

 

[KVB]

I know there is still trading to happen today and this could go anywhere but a good way to compare could be this...

Listing the alt line first, looking at Pinny and BM...
Pinny:
+2.5 (-123) +2 (-110)
-2.5 (+104) -2 (-106)
BM:
+2.5 (-120) +2 (-109)
-2.5 (+101) -2 (+107)

So vig free they are showing:
Pinny:
+2.5 (-112.5) +2 (-101.8)
-2.5 (+112.5) -2 (+101.8)
BM:
+2.5 (-109.6) +2 (-100.9)
-2.5 (+109.6) -2 (+100.9)

A lot can be seen by this, from the cost they are charging for a half point to the idea that Bm is welcoming more and tighter action than Pinny here.

Could Pinny be trying to discourage Drake bets with that lofty -123?

To note, we have seen this line move from an Open of -2.5 or -3, to a bump to -3 to now a drop to -2 with some juice (at least at Pinny on the dog side).

Traditionally, and in "Knowing Your Markets" fashion, the line we buy would want to beat the no vig lines above, or what is being dealt at the close.

Now, remember the big part of "Knowing Your Markets" where we aren't judging the no vig line by calculating the offers from the books, but we are trying to see if it's a sharp or public leading line, thereby showing the "true no vig" where the line stops.

With the line moving downward and appearing to stop at +2 (-109 or -110) it would appear that the sharp side of trading could be stopped at +2 (-110) and -2 (+110).

If we caluclate from a above a half point of at least 8 cents, then we can conclude that -2.5 (+118 to +120 or so) beats that market.

There are some assumptions here, of course, like the leading and lagging bettors. Did the public drive the price down? Or did the sharps drive it down and get stopped when the price on +2 grew?

These are ways to look at the market and the trades we make.

 

[Wagerallsports]

What time is tipoff?

Best of luck

 

[JDS]

Moved down a point, going with the shift.

This is a close one for me.


This thinking can be correct, but it's rare and would need an off book.

In the end it's a conversion problem. Mathematically, if the book is going it right, the EV should be the same as you are just moving the number and paying or getting paid for it.

It's like this... 2+2=4

But you want a 3 so you change the equation to 3+1=4.

In the end, it's still 4.

Now, if you can get paid more than the half point is worth (which does come down to opinion), then you might be able to pull...

3+2=5

But usually, the math down the line is just equivalent conversions.

I guess I meant to say a +EV payout lol bad terminology there KVB. I've always faired well with this selling a half point back to the bookmaker for me personally, about a 100 play sample size and it has only affected my outcome to lose or a push 3-5 times. Until it really starts to affect my bottom line. I'll continue to play this way. As I stated in the short write up I do believe this number is off by at least 3 points so I have no problem with this number when I capped it.

 

[KVB]

Ok, that was a long post and while typing the line dropped even further at Pinny.

They are now dealing

+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-117)

So what's happening to the Bradley -2.5 (+101) trade?

I know the market isn't moving your way here, but I'm not trying to beat that point. I'm just trying to walk through the analysis.

 

[JDS]

Good luck, JDS. This is your first personal sports pick of the year, right?

Yeah it is, been playing a lot of Baccarat lately since my sports picks have hit the shitter.

 

[KVB]

There are some assumptions here, of course, like the leading and lagging bettors. Did the public drive the price down? Or did the sharps drive it down and get stopped when the price on +2 grew?

This is where it becomes valuable to Know Your Markets.

Knowing many different books and the clientele thay have (or will tolerate) can help shed light on who led the line the here.

 

[charliebrown]

Good find. You ready to go on a college hoops run?

 

[KVB]

Sorry for the long posts and I hope posters can pick up what I'm putting down.

Jerky sometimes your pick threads inspire me to look further and even if others don't benefit from my posts, I still might, lol.

Only other poster that inspired my like this was CK.

Sometimes we just end up with good thoughts and posts in these threads, and we might even argue a little, regardless of how the bet falls.

 

[JDS]

I know there is still trading to happen today and this could go anywhere but a good way to compare could be this...

Listing the alt line first, looking at Pinny and BM...
Pinny:
+2.5 (-123) +2 (-110)
-2.5 (+104) -2 (-106)
BM:
+2.5 (-120) +2 (-109)
-2.5 (+101) -2 (+107)

So vig free they are showing:
Pinny:
+2.5 (-112.5) +2 (-101.8)
-2.5 (+112.5) -2 (+101.8)
BM:
+2.5 (-109.6) +2 (-100.9)
-2.5 (+109.6) -2 (+100.9)

A lot can be seen by this, from the cost they are charging for a half point to the idea that Bm is welcoming more and tighter action than Pinny here.

Could Pinny be trying to discourage Drake bets with that lofty -123?

To note, we have seen this line move from an Open of -2.5 or -3, to a bump to -3 to now a drop to -2 with some juice (at least at Pinny on the dog side).

Traditionally, and in "Knowing Your Markets" fashion, the line we buy would want to beat the no vig lines above, or what is being dealt at the close.

Now, remember the big part of "Knowing Your Markets" where we aren't judging the no vig line by calculating the offers from the books, but we are trying to see if it's a sharp or public leading line, thereby showing the "true no vig" where the line stops.

With the line moving downward and appearing to stop at +2 (-109 or -110) it would appear that the sharp side of trading could be stopped at +2 (-110) and -2 (+110).

If we caluclate from a above a half point of at least 8 cents, then we can conclude that -2.5 (+118 to +120 or so) beats that market.

There are some assumptions here, of course, like the leading and lagging bettors. Did the public drive the price down? Or did the sharps drive it down and get stopped when the price on +2 grew?

These are ways to look at the market and the trades we make.

Yeah you are right from a market standpoint it’s not a +EV bet, it’s +EV from what I believe the line should be as far as what is trending on the court. So in my eyes -2.5 should be around -170 & I have it as +101. If that makes any sense from your POV.

 

[JDS]

Sorry for the long posts and I hope posters can pick up what I'm putting down.

Jerky sometimes your pick threads inspire me to look further and even if others don't benefit from my posts, I still might, lol.

Only other poster that inspired my like this was CK.

Sometimes we just end up with good thoughts and posts in these threads, and we might even argue a little, regardless of how the bet falls.

No problem at all I love when you share us your in depth analysis on the betting market numbers & what they mean when they move a certain way.

 

[JDS]

What time is tipoff?

Best of luck

7 pm.

 

[KVB]

Yeah you are right from a market standpoint it’s not a +EV bet, it’s +EV from what I believe the line should be as far as what is trending on the court. So in my eyes -2.5 should be around -170 & I have it as +101. If that makes any sense from your POV.

Yeah, you're all good.

The question of EV is an opinion, and we know the market does get efficient.

Our capping is very important too, that gives us a guide.

We're both right in that you saw overlay and took it and any of us taking the same bet would rather see that line shoot to -3.5 than -1.5.

We cap away, and the market does it's own thing. So you can see I'm not breaking down your capping, but just how the market has traded.

You are looking to predict, looking forward, I'm sitting here reporting after the fact, after lines have moved, and just going off what the market says currently. One is much harder than the other.

 

[JDS]

Good find. You ready to go on a college hoops run?

Yeah I would like that, need some wins to help build back some confidence.

 

[JDS]

Sportsline model agrees with this play.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Just noticed they are up against Drake who has helped keep a couple of games under the total for me this season

 

[BigJay]

This will only be the third true road test for Drake, the Bull Dogs have lost their last two games outright as favorites and I like to fade a team when the odds flip on a mini decline especially on the road in college basketball. Bradley has won 5 straight and 9 of their last 10 as they are 4-0 in conference play. This line should be -5 or more from my calculations.

Drake plays at a slow pace and I don't like that for them on the road against a much better rebounding team. Also Drake is middle of the pact defending the perimeter as Bradley is leading the nation in efficiency from beyond the arc. I think the line is low because of the last 6 meetings between these two Drake has won 5 covering most of those games. Bradley 8-0 SU at home so I see this as a +EV play here.

Take Bradley -2.5 +101 (I sold a half point for a +EV bet). Good luck if you decide to tail or fade

 

[JDS]

Just noticed they are up against Drake who has helped keep a couple of games under the total for me this season

Yeah their slow pace will do that, they are facing a clash test here with Bradley as they push it a lot more and tend to hit their overs on the season.