BITCOIN Discussion..........

[raiders72001]

 

[rolandcorts]

This analysis based on the halving is so naive. Everyone knows it's going to happen, why should there be a bump when it actually happens? That's like thinking if Mahomes is announced out that the line won't move until 5 mins before game time on Sunday. No, it will move immediately on the news. This happens all the time with stocks on merger announcements etc. Extrapolating from BTC going up the last few halvings is one of the lowest IQ forms of technical analysis. And yet it probably will go up because there are so many absolute idiots in the crypto space.

This chart is laughable. I don't even know where to begin, but a high schooler should be able to point out the flaws in trying to infer anything from it.

1. BTC is only at the top because such early years are included. Nothing is going to be able to match that. It's like saying "yea the Nasdaq did well the last 10 years, but nothing compared to what you would have made if you'd have been in on the ground floor of BTC". Yeah, easy to say.

2. Being green more often than red is totally irrelevant. The 2018 red (and of course the 2022 one that is omitted) was devastating. It's like winning 75% of your NFL bets but you only bet moneyline favorites of -500 or greater. Congrats on winning 3 out of 4 but you're a loser.

3. Just in terms of math, ranking like this in terms of percentages doesn't work. If in one year you lose 95%, you will need more than 4 years of 100% gains just to break even. Put another way, if you lose 50% one year, you need 100%+ the next year to break even. It's not symmetric. A % drop on the way down hurts way more than a % increase on the way up.

 

[Ace7550]

Bitcoin is the #1 gaining asset class 3 out of every 4 years and it's not close. It has to do with the 4 year halving cycle.

The halving pattern is one that has repeated itself a few times now. I did very well on it last time around.

 

[raiders72001]

This analysis based on the halving is so naive. Everyone knows it's going to happen, why should there be a bump when it actually happens? That's like thinking if Mahomes is announced out that the line won't move until 5 mins before game time on Sunday. No, it will move immediately on the news. This happens all the time with stocks on merger announcements etc. Extrapolating from BTC going up the last few halvings is one of the lowest IQ forms of technical analysis. And yet it probably will go up because there are so many absolute idiots in the crypto space.

This chart is laughable. I don't even know where to begin, but a high schooler should be able to point out the flaws in trying to infer anything from it.

1. BTC is only at the top because such early years are included. Nothing is going to be able to match that. It's like saying "yea the Nasdaq did well the last 10 years, but nothing compared to what you would have made if you'd have been in on the ground floor of BTC". Yeah, easy to say.

2. Being green more often than red is totally irrelevant. The 2018 red (and of course the 2022 one that is omitted) was devastating. It's like winning 75% of your NFL bets but you only bet moneyline favorites of -500 or greater. Congrats on winning 3 out of 4 but you're a loser.

3. Just in terms of math, ranking like this in terms of percentages doesn't work. If in one year you lose 95%, you will need more than 4 years of 100% gains just to break even. Put another way, if you lose 50% one year, you need 100%+ the next year to break even. It's not symmetric. A % drop on the way down hurts way more than a % increase on the way up.

The only thing that matters is the halving. Everything else is voodoo. Leading up to and just after the halving there's a huge bull run, then there's an 85% drop, then start over again. We predicted it across the street the last two halvings. Everyone else makes the call after the fact.

 

[raiders72001]

Miner's rewards get cut in half. Mining not profitable if the BTC price doesn't go up.

 

[raiders72001]

2. Being green more often than red is totally irrelevant. The 2018 red (and of course the 2022 one that is omitted) was devastating. It's like winning 75% of your NFL bets but you only bet moneyline favorites of -500 or greater. Congrats on winning 3 out of 4 but you're a loser.

The number 1 most profitable asset 3 out of 4 years for the last 13 years. It's no fluke. Just dump after 2 year run. Only you can lose in this market if you don't understand this. I try not to be insulting to anyone but you make it tough.

If you think something is missing, look at the cumulative.

 

[raiders72001]

This is what I've been doing. Posted across the street a couple days ago.

The smart contracts are starting to shift from ETH to SOL. Fees are tiny and very fast. I misspoke. I meant a ton more than ETH and ADA combined. Going small with those comparatively. There is no way I'm cutting back BTC. Short term anything can happen. Long term SOL much greater than ETH + ADA. Currently in order.




BTC
SOL





ETH - There's a chance of ETH and ADA being moved down again.
ADA

RAY - DEX
HXD - Downloads increasing on App Store.
JUP - a DEX that is going to do some airdrops.
ORCA - DEX

NEON - first EVM on Solana.

HNT - there's a slim chance of SAGA making a dent in the cell phone market. May add MOBILE. SOL seems to work as a team with most of their projects and they are aggressive trying to get first mover advantage. A lot of trial and error but they keep moving at a rapid pace but not fast enough where a hiccup will hurt long term.

ANALOS - These guys are for real. Former Polygon employee. Involved in SHIB marketing. Wants to pair up with other MEMEs. Not sure if they can survive but they can be big. Not afraid to throw money at the project with contests and airdrops. It would have been very easy to run with a lot of money. Thanks to biggie for spotting ANALOS. I didn't know about it at the time. After ANALOS getting banned on X, they opened a knew account and went on Twitter Space. I listened live to see what they are about. They took questions and it's better to hear an answer live rather than over days when they have a lot of time to think on it.

SNEK - ADA MEME

Gaming and AI to be added. How much TBD.
Watching all these

GALA
IMX
RNDR
MANA
SAND
APE
OMI
ILV
SHIB
DOGE
YGG
HERO
DOME
GRT
OCEAN
FET
AGIX

Always looking at things launching on SOL.

Listen to the small YouTubers. Really don't have a favorite. May get lucky coming across a gem. With the YouTuber that Arky posted I scanned the title of all the vids for the last two years. Do that type of thing.

All wagers in BTC. Futures are a must have in BTC.

 

[raiders72001]

Big YouTuber's don't stick their neck out and just copy each other. They wait until after the fact. A few losers and they lose views. They may also shill for pump and dump. The small guys find alts before they hit.

 

[raiders72001]

Right now it's a little scary. There can be a dump, there always has to be pull backs. Only insiders know what's happening with ETFs although commercials are already out there. Could be sell the news. I'm in a holding pattern for the most part picking off things getting shilled. In and out.

 

[raiders72001]

YouTubers also use VooDoo. Bollinger bands and death crosses don't work in crypto but they need something to fill up space in their vids. I think they may even believe that stuff. Stock and crypto apples and oranges.

 

[raiders72001]

Stocks aren't my thing and never recommend anything including crypto but I've been on COIN for a while. I just post what I do. Coinbase will be bitcoin custodial for the ETFs.

 

[Ace7550]

The only thing that matters is the halving. Everything else is voodoo. Leading up to and just after the halving there's a huge bull run, then there's an 85% drop, then start over again. We predicted it across the street the last two halvings. Everyone else makes the call after the fact.

This. If you cut the supply of something in half but the demand remains the same what will happen to the price? It should double. But that doubling creates a bull run, fomo sets in and you end up with a crazy run up every 4 years. It's happened every halving without fail.

 

[rolandcorts]

The number 1 most profitable asset 3 out of 4 years for the last 13 years. It's no fluke. Just dump after 2 year run. Only you can lose in this market if you don't understand this. I try not to be insulting to anyone but you make it tough.

If you think something is missing, look at the cumulative.

You should take these insights to the sports betting market. After all, the Chiefs always cover on a Sunday after a 2 game losing streak on full moons.

 

[rolandcorts]

This. If you cut the supply of something in half but the demand remains the same what will happen to the price? It should double. But that doubling creates a bull run, fomo sets in and you end up with a crazy run up every 4 years. It's happened very halving without fail.

You could say it already doubled over the last few months. Maybe the run already happened. Again, this halving is no secret to anyone.

 

[raiders72001]

You could say it already doubled over the last few months. Maybe the run already happened. Again, this halving is no secret to anyone.

The ATH is in the $60ks. We haven't hit that yet. It always blows by the previous ATH.

 

[raiders72001]

This. If you cut the supply of something in half but the demand remains the same what will happen to the price? It should double. But that doubling creates a bull run, fomo sets in and you end up with a crazy run up every 4 years. It's happened very halving without fail.

The FOMO is going to be outrageous this run. Commercials all over the place. This is going to be the mother of all bull runs.

 

[rolandcorts]

The FOMO is going to be outrageous this run. Commercials all over the place. This is going to be the mother of all bull runs.

You might be right, especially if it coincides with ETF approvals, but just hoping history repeats itself without any logical reason doesn't make sense. The halving is not a logical reason, so what you guys are ultimately hoping for is for people to be strongly irrational in the same way they were in the past. Well, you might be right, but hard to invest on that basis if you ask me.

 

[rolandcorts]

raiders, is there any reasonably easy way to acquire TAO? I am busy but if it just involves loading an exchange up with some type of coin and trading it for TAO, I would like to. (Also curious what sort of wallets support TAO and if you need some shit like ETH to transfer it between wallets. God I hate ETH...)

 

[raiders72001]

raiders, is there any reasonably easy way to acquire TAO? I am busy but if it just involves loading an exchange up with some type of coin and trading it for TAO, I would like to. (Also curious what sort of wallets support TAO and if you need some shit like ETH to transfer it between wallets. God I hate ETH...)

are you talking Bittensor TAO? Are you in the US?

​

 

[rolandcorts]

are you talking Bittensor TAO? Are you in the US?

​

Yes & no.