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Betting tips for second leg of UEFA Champions League semifinals
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALThe end results of last week's first legs were roughly according to form, with both English clubs winning, though Manchester City and Liverpool took different paths to victory.
Now both clubs travel to Spain with a lead in the semifinals, seeking the second straight all-English Champions League final, May 28 in Paris.
As always, remember that these bets are for regulation only, since extra time will be played if the aggregate score is tied after 90 minutes. Here are my best bets for this week's second legs.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Tuesday
3 p.m. ET
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (+115)
Liverpool dominated the first leg, holding 73% possession and outshooting Villarreal 19-1. With a season-low 43 touches in the attacking third, Villarreal didn't create any of the counterattacking opportunities that worked so well against Juventus and Bayern Munich.
Now to even reach extra time, Villarreal needs a two-goal win, not an easy task against a Liverpool attack that has been shut out four times in 56 games this season, and versus a Liverpool defense that has allowed multiple goals once in this knockout stage. That one time was when Liverpool had a two-goal cushion and started a backup-filled backline at home against Benfica. Liverpool won't do that on the road Tuesday, and I expect the game to look more like Liverpool's second leg against Inter Milan, when the Reds had a two-goal lead and took 12 shots, their third fewest in a UCL game this season.
Villarreal will be fresh after making eight changes from last week's first leg to Saturday's game at Alaves, and maybe the Yellow Submarine can keep it close or even snatch a one-goal win. I seriously considered going with the Unai Emery magic and taking Villarreal on the goal line (0.5 at +115). In the end, I prefer to get possibilities of 1-0 and 2-0 Liverpool wins instead of Villarreal winning or tying in a higher-scoring affair.
Wednesday
3 p.m. ET
Pick: Man City win (+105)
Real Madrid can't keep doing this, right?
Los Blancos had 41% possession in the first leg, were outshot 16-11 and had 1.6 expected goals (half of which came on a penalty) to Man City's 2.7. And yet, Real Madrid scored three times to head home trailing by a single goal.
Real Madrid has eight goals on 29 shots over the past three knockout games, for a conversion rate of 28%, more than double the 11% by all other teams in the knockout stage. Yes, Karim Benzema is a wizard and Real Madrid has Champions League mojo unlike any other club. But that scoring rate isn't sustainable, and I think it ends in this game.
ESPN FC
Prior to the first leg, Man City allowed a total of 23 shots and 1.8 expected goals in the first four knockout-stage games. Admittedly, those games were against vastly inferior offensive talent, but Man City also has the best defense in England this season.Pep Guardiola's side has surrendered the fewest expected goals (22.8 to Liverpool's second-best 33.6) and the third-worst shots on average (0.11 xG/shot) in the Premier League. City has allowed a total of 7.1 expected goals in 10 league games against fellow top-six English teams.
Real Madrid needed a penalty and two moments of incredible skill from Benzema and Vinicius Junior to score three times in the first leg. Of course that could happen again, but I'll go with the long-run numbers and take plus-money on the better, more consistent team winning the game.
