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Any posters in Sacremento? I have two Kings tickets for tomorrow against the Clippers, Court Side Front now

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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,622
@KVB What do I bet for this game? Lead me down the right path here please. God Bless.

Clippers were 3 point favorites in this game, the line dropped a little, to about -2, and then Kawhi was ruled out, the line was pulled, and then opened Sac -2 which is now Sac -3.

It's the NBA, I'm not sold on Sac in this particular game. A lower vig LAC +3.5 may have some value in the market and definitely showing some contrarian value, in my strategies, on the Clippers.

The line tradees at Sac -3 but I have a very high confidence in metrics showing that this line will go to at least -3.5 across the board.

That move actually decreases the Contrarian value, depending on when it's made. But I think 3.5 might be just a little far.

As far as coming off the 3, we will see 3.5 before an 2.5 so waiting for the dog price to get better should be fine.

I likely would not chase the steam there and take the Kings at a trading high, I would tend the other way and be support for the Clippers at that level.
 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
18,926
Clippers were 3 point favorites in this game, the line dropped a little, to about -2, and then Kawhi was ruled out, the line was pulled, and then opened Sac -2 which is now Sac -3.

It's the NBA, I'm not sold on Sac in this particular game. A lower vig LAC +3.5 may have some value in the market and definitely showing some contrarian value, in my strategies, on the Clippers.

The line tradees at Sac -3 but I have a very high confidence in metrics showing that this line will go to at least -3.5 across the board.

That move actually decreases the Contrarian value, depending on when it's made. But I think 3.5 might be just a little far.

As far as coming off the 3, we will see 3.5 before an 2.5 so waiting for the dog price to get better should be fine.
And its posts like this that make @KVB the King of offshore forum game analysis! God Bless you "Sir" in my BBD voice. May Christ bless you on this joyous day and for this response, you are granted at least 71% winning percentage on 4/3 from 6pm-8:45pm. Best coast time.
 
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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,622
And its posts like this that make @KVB the King of offshore forum game analysis! God Bless you "Sir" in my BBD voice. May Christ bless you on this joyous day and for this response, you are granted at least 71% winning percentage on 4/3 from 6pm-8:45pm. Best coast time.

I did make an edit and added the last line:

I likely would not chase the steam there and take the Kings at a trading high, I would tend the other way and be support for the Clippers at that level.

:cheers:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,622
As far as coming off the 3, we will see 3.5 before an 2.5 so waiting for the dog price to get better should be fine.

I likely would not chase the steam there and take the Kings at a trading high, I would tend the other way and be support for the Clippers at that level.

Carefule here, now.

This line did hit 3.5, already, and saw some Clipper support as it bounces back. It might trade here for a bit, or it might pull off 3.5 and that's that.

Tough to tell but I think there are still Kings buyers here, but at 3.5 I think sharper market sustaining action will agree with me and see a potential buy point on the Clippers. At that level, the pricing is what matters on the 3 and 3.5s. Expect the market to be adjusting those as bets come in.
 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
18,926
Carefule here, now.

This line did hit 3.5, already, and saw some Clipper support as it bounces back. It might trade here for a bit, or it might pull off 3.5 and that's that.

Tough to tell but I think there are still Kings buyers here, but at 3.5 I think sharper market sustaining action will agree with me and see a potential buy point on the Clippers. At that level, the pricing is what matters on the 3 and 3.5s. Expect the market to be adjusting those as bets come in.
God Bless you! Do you have action on this game?
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,622
This line did hit 3.5, already, and saw some Clipper support as it bounces back. It might trade here for a bit, or it might pull off 3.5 and that's that.

3.5s already scarce out there.

The party could be over.

We need the degens to come in and take a bad Sac number because they heard Kawhi was out.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,622
Tough to tell but I think there are still Kings buyers here, but at 3.5 I think sharper market sustaining action will agree with me and see a potential buy point on the Clippers. At that level, the pricing is what matters on the 3 and 3.5s. Expect the market to be adjusting those as bets come in.

BOL offering LAC +3.5 at -112.

Blowvada has it at -110 if anyone gets down there.

Some money is still coming in on Sac as we approach the final hour of trading.

3.5s might, just might, pop up again.

BOL a tempting play right now.
 
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