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2028 election odds include possible third terms for Trump, Obama
LV REVIE JOURNAL SUBSCRIPTIONVice President JD Vance is the clear betting favorite to win the Republican nomination and be elected the next U.S. president in 2028.
But oddsmakers have left open the possibility that President Donald Trump will run for a third term in office.
Vance is the +150 favorite at BetOnline to be the 2028 Republican nominee, and Trump is the 5-1 second choice. Vance is the heavy +275 favorite to win the presidential election, while Trump is tied for the 12-1 fourth pick with former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, is 10-1 to be elected president. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is 11-1.
Trump declined to endorse Vance as the 2028 nominee when he was asked on Fox News on Super Bowl Sunday if he saw the former Ohio senator as his successor.
“No, but he’s very capable,” Trump said. “I think you have a lot of very capable people. So far, I think he’s doing a fantastic job. It’s too early. We’re just starting.”
The U.S. Constitution limits presidents to two terms in office. BetOnline made the odds 50-1 on a prop that the two-term limit will be scrapped this year.
The offshore sportsbook, which isn’t regulated in the U.S., also posted a yes-no prop on whether the two-term presidential limit will be repealed before the 2028 election. No is a -900 favorite, and yes is a +500 underdog.
A negative number represents how much a bettor needs to wager to win $100. In this case, a bettor would have to wager $900 to win $100 that the two-term limit will not be repealed. A positive number represents how much a person would profit from a $100 bet. In this case, a bettor would need to wager $100 to win $500 that the two-term limit will be repealed.
If the two-term limit is repealed, that would also open the door for former two-term presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush to run again.
Obama, 63, is 50-1 at BetOnline to win the 2028 election. Clinton, the same age as Trump at 78, is a 750-1 long shot. Bush, also 78, is not listed.
In hypothetical matchups in the 2028 election, Trump is a -200 favorite over Clinton (+160), while Obama is a -200 favorite over Trump (+160). The book made the odds 40-1 on a Trump-Obama matchup to take place in 2028.
At electionbettingodds.com, Vance has a 46.5 percent chance to be the Republican nominee. That implied probability equates to the +115 favorite.
Trump has a 7.5 percent chance, which equates to the 12-1 second choice, at the site, which averages live odds from Polymarket.com, Kalshi.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org and Smarkets.com.
Vance has a 24.3 percent chance (3-1) at the site to be elected president, followed by Shapiro at 5.6 percent (17-1), Newsom at 4.0 percent (24-1) and Donald Trump Jr. at 3.8 percent (25-1).
President Trump isn’t listed in the presidential odds at electionbettingodds.com, though the site gives “other” candidates a 37.9 percent chance to be elected (+164).
The president also isn’t on the board at London-based Ladbrokes sportsbook, which has Vance as the heavy +275 favorite.
Shapiro is the 12-1 second choice at Ladbrokes to win the 2028 election, followed by Trump Jr. at 14-1 and Newsom at 16-1.
“All eyes have already turned to who might be next in the White House,” Ladbrokes spokesperson Alex Apati said, “and the early signs suggest JD Vance will come out of 2028’s US election on top.”
Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.
