Head-to-head: Alcaraz leads 8-4 overall and 3-1 on clay. Sinner is like a charging bull—the most feared on tour—but Alcaraz controls him smoothly, creating an intriguing dynamic in men’s tennis. Alcaraz acts as the gatekeeper, stopping Sinner from dominating every big title. Both are elite, in great form, and proven under pressure, shown by their combined 7-0 record in Grand Slam finals. This match is anyone’s to win, with a few key moments likely deciding the outcome.
While Alcaraz is the better player on clay and holds a strong psychological edge, the law of averages is against him. Four straight wins over Sinner, the world No. 1, feels like a lot, and a reversal seems overdue. However, Sinner’s chances are narrow since he likely needs to win in three or four sets. Whether he can dominate Alcaraz as he has other opponents will be crucial, since Sinner is less physically robust than his rival and has never won a match lasting beyond four hours, holding a 0-3 record in such battles.