only lost 7 sets out of a couple hundred sets she played on tour
A game away from #8
I bet -130 Gauff +2.5 games 2nd set in the middle of the 1st set... it went to +2 and then +1.5 so timing was perfect on my part. Then I realized that, while Sabalenka is head and shoulders above her opponents in 80-90% matches she gets to play on tour, the other 10-20% can challenge her and make her miserable. It happens at approximately the same rate on hard courts and clay courts. Ostapenko beat her in Stuttgart this year in two sets, including the 6-1 opener.
Add that to the fact she is up a set, and could be 'saving it' a little bit for the decider... while Gauff, on the contrary, just has to dig in and survive...
So I lost Sabalenka -2.5 games (1st set)
I won Gauff +2.5 games (2nd set) - unless someone retires soon and bet pushes
I'm also sitting on Gauff +3.5 and over 25.0 Total games at -103
bookmakers eu = sneaky good book... fast live bet acceptance... too bad odds aren't great (just -118/-118 on this match here)
