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2 plays today - Detroit and Cubs

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djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,771
Got 2 plays this afternoon - Tigers and Cubs.

If they lose - I think I’m walking away for a month or 2. Getting to a point where I’m no longer near as profitable as I was to start the season and time to recognize - lock up some profit and enjoy it.

If they both hit - I’m staying in the game. Will put me back to where I was at my peak earlier and tell me there’s still potential profits to be made. No point in walking away leaving $$ on the table.

If they split - no idea. Probably take one additional play tonight to decide. I’d say Phillies - but goes a little early and Cubs may not be finished by 4 - so maybe Yankees.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,771
Well - the Tigers didn’t work out so well.

Cubs up with 3 outs to go.

The only good - I cashed my Tigers bet early - right as they were down 2-1 before he loaded them and imploded. Took that and put it on Philly.

IF I manage to win both Cubs/Philly - I’m actually slightly ahead. Smart thing to do would be take that - risk it on Yankees and try to start a streak tomorrow if I get lucky….but we already know I’m an idiot having went all in to start the day. Guess we see how it plays out.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,771
Oh really dumb advice. Lol

You expected wisdom from weekend JJ?

Of course it’s partially correct - you can’t win long term playing bets where you don’t have an advantage. Just can’t trust because a team has a + number it will be profitable long term. Rockies have proven that so far - Dodgers showing that a heavy fave is no sure thing either.

My general preferred criteria is a home fave of -140 to -160 range. Anything over -200 your risking your sanity needing to win way more than most can. If you bet a -300 fave in any baseball game - you are what books love as a customer.

Live betting of course is different beast entirely.
 

pipe

pipe

Joined
Aug 3, 2022
Messages
7,581
You expected wisdom from weekend JJ?

Of course it’s partially correct - you can’t win long term playing bets where you don’t have an advantage. Just can’t trust because a team has a + number it will be profitable long term. Rockies have proven that so far - Dodgers showing that a heavy fave is no sure thing either.

My general preferred criteria is a home fave of -140 to -160 range. Anything over -200 your risking your sanity needing to win way more than most can. If you bet a -300 fave in any baseball game - you are what books love as a customer.

Live betting of course is different beast entirely.
Of course. Two good cappers had Cubs. Nice win it could've went either way.
 

djefferis

djefferis

Joined
Jan 8, 2024
Messages
3,771
Well - somehow I got lucky and actually won 2k today after dumping 11k on those first 2 plays and lucking into a split.

Dime on Yankees tonight - dime on Oilers. Try to build some momentum into tomorrow. Baseball is all about grinding out wins.
 
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