150th Preakness Horse By Horse Betting Analysis

[Wagerallsports]

Odds, horse-by-horse betting analysis for 150th Preakness Stakes​

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Michael Kipness, aka “The Wizard,” a professional horse racing handicapper since 1986, analyzes the nine-horse field for Saturday’s 150th Preakness Stakes, designating each horse as a contender or a pretender.

Visit Wizardraceandsports.com to purchase his products for Friday’s Black-Eyed Susan Day (14 races) and Saturday’s Preakness Day (14 races) as well as in-depth analysis on all his selections, wagering strategies for every race and best bets.

Post position, horse, jockey, morning-line odds:

1. Goal Oriented, Flavien Prat, 6-1

Trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Preakness a record eight times, wheels Goal Oriented back on just two weeks rest, following a sharp front running win over the slop on the Kentucky Derby undercard. He draws the advantageous rail, which will allow Prat to decide if he wants the lead or stalk. Goal Oriented proved in his debut he can rate successfully. The most lightly raced 3-year-old in the field has plenty of upside but lacks significant racing foundation. Contender.

2. Journalism, Umberto Rispoli, 8-5

The Kentucky Derby favorite ran huge in his first start over a wet track, finishing a close second to Sovereignty. He had some trouble early and Rispoli had to move sooner than he wanted to. Both likely cost Journalism a much closer finish and a possible victory. Prior to the Derby, he was a perfect 4-0 stretching out to two turns. His superb tactical speed, good inside post and softer competition makes Journalism the horse to beat as the likely odds-on favorite. He would not have been wheeled back on just two weeks rest if his trainer Michael McCarthy didn’t feel he exited the Derby in excellent shape. McCarthy won the 2021 Preakness with Rombauer. Contender and likely winner.

3. American Promise, Nik Juarez, 15-1

This is the one horse who can help determine the outcome of the Preakness. His only chance is to gun to the lead, which would determine the tactics that Prat would have to employ on Goal Oriented and compromise the chances of the other speed rival Clever Again. American Promise probably needs weaker competition to be considered a viable win threat. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won the Preakness seven times. Pretender.

4. Heart of Honor, Saffie Osborne, 12-1

He is the wild card who has spent most of his career racing overseas at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. In six starts, he’s won two races and placed four times. I don’t expect Heart of Honor to defeat Journalism, but his consistency, versatility and proven form at this distance give him a shot to land a piece. Contender underneath (in exactas and trifectas).

5. Pay Billy, Raul Mena, 20-1

He’s sharp and consistent but is overmatched. He will be in the hunt early but is likely to fade in the stretch. Pretender.

6. River Thames, Irad Ortiz Jr., 9-2

He began his career in January. In four starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, he’s hit the board each time with two wins. He proved he belonged with the top 3-year-olds when he was beaten by just a neck by Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth. Pletcher wisely freshened him up, pointing to a weaker Preakness, following a good third-place finish in the Blue Grass. His tactical speed will allow Ortiz Jr. to sit a perfect stalking trip. Amazingly, Pletcher is still searching for his first Preakness win. Contender.

7. Sandman, John Velazquez, 4-1

Unless he didn’t handle the sloppy track on Derby Day, I cannot make any excuses for his disappointing seventh-place finish as the second choice in the betting. The only way I can envision him winning the Preakness is if there’s a total pace meltdown and Journalism runs a subpar race, which I don’t expect. Sandman should get a quick pace to close into, which could land him a piece of the pie, but I simply don’t trust him to win. Contender underneath (in exactas and trifectas).


8. Clever Again, Jose Ortiz, 5-1

This steadily improving and lightly raced 3-year-old has progressed nicely in all three starts. He exits a sharp front running win going one mile at Oaklawn. He’s quick out of the gate and is bred beautifully to handle longer distances. His fate or success will be determined right from the start. If he breaks sharp again and can establish the early lead, his chance of running a big race improves significantly. If American Promise is hustled hard to the lead or Goal Oriented wants the front end from the rail, then Clever Again will be compromised. Trainer Steve Asmussen has won the Preakness twice. Contender.

9. Gosger, Luis Saez, 20-1

This is a nice 3-year-old who is lightly raced. He draws a tough outside post, which will likely result in a wide trip facing and stiffer opposition. That will likely do him in. Pretender.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Brunker: Journalism is class of Preakness field​

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With Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty absent from Saturday’s 150th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown is not the race we wish it was.

But that doesn’t mean it’s not worth betting.

The good news is it could have been worse, with Derby runner-up Journalism and the well-regarded Sandman, who finished seventh in the Derby, joining the lineup shortly before entries were drawn Monday. If not for that, we could have been left with one Derby runner — American Promise — entered, and one that was beaten by 38½ lengths.

Instead, the field for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness is an interesting one, starting with the three Derby runners.

There’s also:

— Two stakes winners — Gosger and River Thames — who contested earlier races on the Triple Crown trail before skipping the Derby;

— Two late bloomers — Clever Again and Goal Oriented — attempting to prove they belong among the country’s elite 3-year-olds;

— A local hope in Pay Billy;

— And even a rare foreign bred and raced colt in Heart of Honor, who has an unprecedented father-daughter tandem in his corner in trainer Jamie Osborne and jockey Saffie Osborne.

The Preakness poses a different challenge for handicappers than the Derby, because the field is typically half as large and observant horseplayers have a better sense of which horses have faced the strongest competition after watching the Derby.

In other words, cashing a winning ticket in the Preakness is easier, but the chances of collecting a lottery-like payout are much less.

Those who prefer to pursue the latter are in luck. Maryland racing officials have unveiled two new wagers connecting Friday’s Pimlico card featuring the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes for 3-year-old fillies with Saturday’s races, including the Preakness. The All Dirt Pick 5 starting Friday on race 10 and the All Stakes Pick 5 starting Friday on race 11 can be expected to generate some big payouts.

The weather might be a factor, as it was in the Derby. As of Thursday afternoon, the forecast for the Baltimore area calls for “an active weather day” on Friday, with up to 1.5 inches of rain, followed by lingering showers or thunderstorms before clearing Saturday.

Another factor to consider is how modern trends in the training of racehorses could be changing the dynamics of the Preakness. Form in the Kentucky Derby has long equated with success in Baltimore, with eight of 21 Derby winners (38.1 percent) going on to capture the Preakness, according to an analysis of Preaknesses from 2001 to 2024 published this week by HorseRacingNation.com. If you look at the top six Derby finishers over that period, the winning percentage rises to 62.5 percent.

But with top horses now racing far less often than their forebears, the Derby-Preakness pipeline might not be what it once was. Consider, for example, that the past five Preakness winners ran in races other than the Kentucky Derby, giving them additional time to prepare for the rigors of the race at Pimlico.

With Sovereignty and third-place Derby finisher Baeza electing to skip the Preakness to target the Belmont Stakes on June 7, a big question is raised about the 8-5 favorite Journalism, who finished 1½ lengths behind Sovereignty in the Derby. Can he perform at his best off a two-week turnaround, the shortest of his six-race career?

The answer is a resounding yes. It might not be the greatest career path these days, but Journalism is the way to go in the Preakness Stakes.

For starters, Journalism is one of only three graded stakes winners in the field, with three victories in the toughest races on the calendar. The others are Sandman, who captured the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and Gosger, who won the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.

Two other entrants have been beaten less than a length in a graded stakes — River Thames, third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and second in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth; and Heart of Honor, a narrowly beaten second in the Group 2 UAE Derby.

Based on speed figures, Journalism, the son of Curlin, also is the fastest horse in the field.

Plus, the Michael McCarthy-trained colt is highly professional in his races and tractable, giving jockey Umberto Rispoli options on where to place his mount depending on the pace. Journalism also has shown he can overcome trouble in a race and still win, as he did in taking down the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

Journalism also should be able to get a ground-saving trip in the early stages of the Preakness after breaking from post 2, leaving him with plenty of energy to run down probable pacesetters Goal Oriented and Clever Again in the stretch.

To extract some value from the race, I will box Journalism in exactas with the three horses in the field that I think have the most upside: Heart of Honor (12-1 on the morning line), River Thames (9-2) and Clever Again (6-1). With a $5 base unit, that ticket will cost $30.

For those who want to go deeper, it’s also possible to construct two trifecta tickets along the same lines:

— Journalism/Heart of Honor, River Thames and Clever Again/All

— Heart of Honor, River Thames and Clever Again/Journalism/All

At a 50-cent base bet, those tickets will cost a total of $15, assuming there are no scratches.

Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Heritage

Outright Winner​

Journalism-110
Clever Again+500
River Thames+650
Goal Oriented+700
Sandman+900
American Promise+1800
Gosger+2000
Heart of Honor+2500
Pay Billy+5000

 

[Wagerallsports]

Betonline

 

[Wagerallsports]

Justbet


To Win Preakness Stakes

Goal Oriented+855
Journalism-105
American Promise+1650
Heart of Honor+2300
Pay Billy+3600
River Thames+675
Sandman+900
Clever Again+450
Gosger+2055

 

[BobbyFK]

So far from looking at it I like Goal Oriented but that could change come post time

 

[jjgold]

We’ll make a decision tomorrow