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flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
18,757
You should be educating yourself on the markets at this time, Gold.

Santa Clara line dropping back to the early open of 1.5.

This looks to be a classic across the board reverse line move but the real question is why the market would blink when it did.

And the answer is volume. There ain't much right now.

These first two games in Sioux Falls are commanding the college basketball market though, along with the Texas A&M /C. Florida game.

Kentucky and Bama both playing tomorrow, and they basically round out the top 5 volume getters so far.

Let's see if that trend holds.

There could be Contrarian Fund action already with the make up of the current market bleeding into tomorrow.
Correct, half of betting is "knowing your markets" If you don't know your market, you are already at a huge disadvantage. Books feed off of players and skin them alive when they don't know the market.

 

flyingillini

flyingillini

Joined
Jul 25, 2022
Messages
18,757
Charleston line moving on heavy pressure today.

Southern Illinois just about a contrarian trigger at +5.

Good volume on this game too.
Um um, KVB, don't get me wrong here. I respect you as a man, a poster and your knowledge, however you are posting with possibly pulling the trigger at +5 but you didn't factor in "variance" with this play, any season vet that knows how to apply it knows that the real line is +6 when it is applied correctly. I am starting to question your variance knowledge or might I say laziness or lack of applying it to this best. Your peers deserve better from you.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,554
Um um, KVB, don't get me wrong here. I respect you as a man, a poster and your knowledge, however you are posting with possibly pulling the trigger at +5 but you didn't factor in "variance" with this play, any season vet that knows how to apply it knows that the real line is +6 when it is applied correctly. I am starting to question your variance knowledge or might I say laziness or lack of applying it to this best. Your peers deserve better from you.

That shit will never hit +6.

Trust me, there are buyers at +5.

Shit will be back to 4.5 across the board soon.

:yes:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,554
That shit will never hit +6.

Trust me, there are buyers at +5.

Shit will be back to 4.5 across the board soon.

:yes:

Pinny skipped 4.5 and closed at 4.

200w.gif
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,554
3 point game at half.

Why am I not surprised. We pretty much get no new info for later decisions.

Southern Illinois certainly behaving like a Contrarian Fund play for the first game of a set of three in Sioux Falls. There may be some ripe halftime betting in that game, keep an eye out.

For the second game we are seeing that Santa Clara pressure start to blink in the market. Some books may be scurred here and won't even move from -1.5 to -2, they may skip the -2 and go straight from -1.5 to -2.5.

That volume on the second game will come quick and some books need to get a jump on that number as per their business models.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,554
Southern Illinois trying to make a run early in the second half.

Sure feels like the market is selling Santa Clara here.

This might end up being a Contrarian Fund day in Sioux Falls as opposed to a value day.

Expect a good ending to this first game. Might even see OT. Wouldn't rule out late free throws to put the score near the spread either.

:popcorn:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
14,554
Was able to put $5 on Charleston and Santa Clara

One down.

Santa Clara moneyline just getting slammed right now.

It's keeping the spread afloat.

Public bettors liking the points on St. Louis, while the value bettors hit the Santa Clara spread.

Both bettors taking the Santa Clara moneyline, nobody really taking the dog moneyline.
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
47,972
One down.

Santa Clara moneyline just getting slammed right now.

It's keeping the spread afloat.

Public bettors liking the points on St. Louis, while the value bettors hit the Santa Clara spread.

Both bettors taking the Santa Clara moneyline, nobody really taking the dog moneyline.
I don’t know if you’ve ever revealed what line service you use to determine the way of the market ? I’m pretty sure it’s not Don Best.
 
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