UCF requires the run to win games. If they rush for over 200-220 yards, they win. Below that, they lose. Duke rush D is very good 17th in the country allowing 112 ypg. When Duke allows > 150 yards rushing, they lose. I think Duke will control UCF run game and win this game.
UCF quarterback Plumlee (QB#1) may be out, which is huge. They would have to go with freshman Castellanos QB#3 (QB#2 is transferring). Castellanos started the Tulane game (last game of the season for UCF) and they lost 45-28. Its a big step down for UCF if Plumlee doesn't play. Plumlee's injury (hamstring) is not healing well and he also may not be returning after this game to UCF so I'm betting he sits and UCF will struggle on offense.
UCF #1WR, #1LB, and #1CB are also out.
The games Duke has played against similar teams to UCF they either win or lose in the last couple of minutes of the game. Its tough to make a comparison with this version of UCF since Plumlee likely won't play so it makes me believe this will be an "easier" win for Duke.
Duke -3
Edit: I just read Plumlee may play but won't be 100% with hamstring issue. I still like Duke -3