I was leaning Toledo with all the issues at Liberty.
IMO Liberty is on "tilt". They started off season 7-1. Currently 7-4 (I do not count the win against FCS Gardner-Webb). They lost their headcoach to Auburn a week ago and their best RB (Hunter) was injured in Nov. Since losing Hunter they've lost 3 in a row to some pretty bad teams.
Toledo isn't exactly stellar though, having lost 2 of their last 3 games to bad competition but, I think the are the better team tonight. Still hoping for line move to -3 or better before jumping in.